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cross-post from the [EMAIL PROTECTED] wireless list:
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10 wireless technologies worth watching
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by Dan O'Shea Telephony, Dec 1, 2003 WIMAX What's going on: The 802.16 metropolitan area network standard may not be widely marketed until the middle of next year and may not be commercially deployed until 2005, but with a point-to-multipoint range of 35 miles at speeds as fast as 268 Mb/s, WiMAX is already being hyped as a natural middleman technology between public mobile networks and Wi-Fi hot spots. Pro: Backing. Intel, Nokia, Proxim and many other companies have joined the WiMAX Forum in the last several months, so the technology is building a good head of steam. Most commercial WiMax systems are expected to operate in the 2 GHz to 11 GHz range, though it also has been approved to operate at higher frequencies. Con: Time. Mesh architectures (see above) and other wireless backhaul options are already available, and with carriers tired of spending too much money for T-1 backhaul, the market is poised to take off now, not in 2005. Also, the WiMAX vendor glut looks like Wi-Fi switching all over again. WI-FI MESH TOPOLOGIES What's going on: BelAir Networks, Tropos Networks, Mesh Networks, Millennial Net and others have developed self-organizing Wi-Fi mesh topologies designed for metropolitan area Wi-Fi hot zones and campus deployment. The point-to-point adaptive radio architectures also can be used for mobile network backhaul between antenna sites. Pro: Inexpensive, high-bandwidth Wi-Fi with broader coverage and adaptive, automated management. A boon to municipalities, universities, and carriers and wireless ISPs aiming at these market and large corporate enterprises. Going into 2004, real deployment is happening. Con: Large carriers have lots of metro and backhaul options, including WiMAX. Universities and suburban downtowns are great proving grounds, but will they also be lower-margin customers? PROFILE MANAGEMENT What's going on: Fine, we admit this is kind of a catch all for improving the technologies and techniques behind the customer care process, but with portability currently throttling the wireless industry, can you blame us? Profile management, according to Rob Chimsky, vice president at inCode Telecom, is the art of tying customer information, details and preferences together with applications bases that carriers have grown organically in an overlaying reference architecture that encourages better customer service and more progressive and personalized marketing. Pro: With portability launching in late 2003, carriers finally have a real revenue-driven reason to invest in better customer service during the wee hours of 2004. Con: Anything that could be called "profiling" also has a negative angle to it. Do users want carriers knowing them so intimately? SECURITY What's going on: The doctors are in. Bluefire Security, Fortress Technologies, Koolspan, Columbitech and several dozen other technology developers are offering variations on this theme from client plug-ins and software, encryption, intrusion detection and firewalls to unplugged VPNs. Infonetics Research said it could all add up to an $8 billion market in 2007. Pro: Mobile data won't be worth using for corporate enterprise customers if they aren't triple certain that it's secure. The innovation occurring in this area will be a boon to the industry's reputation and long-term prospects. Con: A very complex and competitive market in which standards are constantly being revisited. Set aside more than an afternoon to wade through this particular product catalog. MOBILE/WI-FI ROAMING What's going on: You could argue this is more of an application, but everyone from base station vendors to handset makers is working on integrating both types of protocols into the same space. By mid-year 2004, we should see some of the fruits of their labor. Pro: Always-on mobile date communications as users move between Wi-Fi hot spots and the public network. Con: Who wants it? ENTERPRISE WI-FI SWITCHING AND MANAGEMENT What's going on: Heading into 2004, there are still way too many companies working in this technology area, and enterprises aren't adopting the offerings as had been hoped. Yet, they bring wireless coverage, security and configuration to in-building enterprises in a way public mobile networks haven't yet matched. Pro: Allows true wireless in the enterprise. Better than letting a rogue user onto the corporate network through a first-generation Wi-Fi access point. Supplants the freenet being run by that accounting intern out of his cubicle. Con: Like we said, a glutted, confusing market of vendors that may be waiting until 2005 for serious business. Also, that accounting intern might know more about Wi-Fi than the IT manager. PRESS-TO-TALK What's going on: Years of work are coming to a head as we enter 2004. Verizon Wireless and Sprint have launched offerings to compete with P2T pioneer Nextel that are based on the same softswitch platform but use different implementations. Southern Linc is on board, as well as fastmobile and PushMessenger. Kodiak Networks is the latest vendor to join the club, with a distinct approach based in the voice network. Pro: Every major carrier should be offering P2T service by the end of 2004. It should enhance everyone's ARPU, and trigger new technology innovations in push-button services, messaging and presence management. Con: Critics say Verizon launched its service before the quality was right. If QOS turns out to be as big a deal as Nextel has claimed, a lot of the upcoming competitive offerings could face difficult prospects for adoption. DEVICE OS AND INTERFACE DEVELOPMENT What's going on: Microsoft vs. Symbian vs. Linux vs. Palm (sort of) vs. Java (maybe, but not really) vs. Opera (well?) vs. carrier patience. It's not exactly like that, but here's what to watch for in 2004: Linux making a big move as a basic platform for carriers that don't want to choose between sides in the holy war involving Microsoft and Symbian. Pro: The era of smart mobile devices is here, it's going to change how we use handsets, and position wireless carriers to become the dominant providers of communications and media content. (That's right-content.) Con: Carriers have to make sure devices like smartphones are affordable, and vendors have to make sure they're available. That, and this technology could constipate the whole changing-the-industry-forever thing. UMTS/WCDMA What's going on: With data rates as high as 384 kb/s, UMTS/WCDMA is the 3G choice for much of Europe and Asia. It's garnered about 2 million customers worldwide so far, and looks to be the eventual evolution path for North American GSM/GPRS carriers. Pro: This technology represents the ultimate 3G evolution path, and could become a unifying standard if CDMA carriers eventually migrate. AT&T Wireless will deploy its initial UMTS markets this coming year. Con: AT&T may be deploying UMTS/WCDMA on a limited basis only, to hold onto a massive investment from NTT DoCoMo. SOFTWARE-DEFINED RADIO What's going on: SDR is helping reshape base station technology as we know it, by putting signal processing and other traditional hardware functions into easily upgradable software platforms. Large carriers are said to be watching initial deployments-such as Mid-Tex Cellular's deployment of Vanu's SDR technology, completed in November-to see if it warrants wider deployment. Pro: SDR helps further reduce the cost of a wireless network's most expensive network element, and could coax carriers to postpone investments in new base stations. Analysts think the market could be worth a whopping $30 billion by 2008. Con: Except for the obvious pain it could cause traditional base station vendors if they don't invest in SDR, it's hard to think of one. [JN-DM8IQA3] |
