Rich wrote:
>>> Only thing I disagree with is that Leno's audience will return to its 
>>> previous numbers. Yeah, the true believers will always be there, but a lot 
>>> of late-night viewers have not only changed habits and may not be so eager 
>>> to return. They've also seen the mighty Leno fail, and rather badly. Yes, I 
>>> know there are some who say they'll never watch NBC again, but I don't 
>>> think that'll be that much of a factor.


I agree with you, Rich, although for at least slightly different
reasons.  I don't think viewers who are inclined to watch him will be
affected by his recent failure; by that rationale, you could make the
case that Conan won't have any viewers when he migrates.  I think
people who like Leno will watch Leno wherever he goes if it's
convenient for them, and for most people in that category, 1130pm was
convenient for them before.

I think Leno's numbers will fall because a significant percentage of
casual viewers have soured on him, not because of his failure, but
because of what he's done over the past two weeks.  First and perhaps
most obviously, there are the Leno/Conan viewers... a number that has
probably grown as Conan's original viewers have grown up and gotten
jobs and real responsibilities and started to not be able to make it
to 1235am.  Then there are those who didn't necessarily care for Conan
and perhaps didn't even have much against Jay Leno's
I-don't-believe-America's-that-smart sense of humor, but over the past
two weeks came to realize that Jay Leno is really not a very good guy.

I believe the latter group will turn out to be larger than folks
think.  People in my circle who aren't Conan fans have been asking me
why a fight among millionaires has bothered me so much and why I've
turned into a real obnoxious dinner party participant for the past two
weeks.  My answer is that these developments pushed so many of my
buttons.

-- I am a deeply loyal, 17-out-of-17 years-loyal viewer to Conan, and
-- I find Jay Leno to be awful...

but even putting aside these two specifics:

-- I hate when people who ought to be done with something are too
greedy to accept that;
-- I hate giant corporations that make decisions based not on quality,
but on perceived financial benefit only;
-- I hate when things aren't fair and have been tilted in favor of the
already-winning;
-- I hate when someone goes back on his word;
-- I hate the victory of predictable blandness over unpredictable innovation.

I am not the only one in the 18-34/18-49 age group who feels this way.
 I wasn't just angered by this whole mess -- I was *offended* by it.
I won't soon forget it.

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