And he/she posted this...In response to me telling him that he has a wild imagination if he/she thinks China wants war with the USA!
The fact that they are retooling their military is beyond dispute and well documented. The Chinese are indeed configuring their military to fight our military. This is yet another area which will require a total overhaul of US strategic doctrine. Our current doctrine, such as it is, differs little from the nukes-and-overwhelming-firepower combo we were using fifty years ago, little of which will help in a strategic contest with China today. We outspend them militarily by roughly six to one, but we have the whole world to worry about while they focus only on their own front yard, and their strategic doctrine is quite low-tech, so the balance of forces is more even than one might think. As we learned in 2001 when they punched one of our airplanes out of the sky, they are not adverse to poking us in the eye, if they think we’re crowding them. They also have, or can obtain, asymmetric advantages such as cyber warfare which could disrupt US military deployments; they successfully tested an anti-satellite weapon in 2007. In one of his moments of political lucidity MacArthur warned Kennedy not to indulge in a land war in Asia (Kennedy intended to get out of Vietnam after the 1964 election). We are very unlikely to get into a land conflict with China ’s gigantic army, so if there is a fracas in the western Pacific, it may happen at sea. A key issue will be the Straits of Malacca and its route into the South China Sea, which carry more merchant traffic than Suez and Panama together, including eighty percent of China’s oil. Our navy – ironically built with a fair amount of Chinese money, which must drive them insane -- is at either end of the strait, at the Changi base in Singapore and on Diego Garcia. We are there because we want to prevent any disruptions in the shipping routes, and because other Asian countries want us there, to keep China honest. Also India has military facilities nearby on the Andaman and Nicobar Islands. If we do joint exercises with India, the Chinese will go insane. China intends to compete as a leading sea power, although they have a long way to go; it may occur to them to stop giving us money for our navy and spend considerably more on their own. They have alliances with countries which can host their ships as needed: Pakistan, Cambodia, Thailand and Burma. According to a press report they have put a nuclear-missile submarine and other naval vessels at Sanya and Yalong Bay on the southern coast of Hainan Island; they have bought Russian submarines. One Chinese sub surfaced in the middle of a U.S. carrier group not far from China, the one thing that is absolutely certain to get the undivided attention of a carrier-group commander. That how you say “Yankee go home” in Mandarin. Since they really don’t want their energy supplies dependent on the good will of the U.S. Navy, they are also looking for alternative energy routes, and generally strengthening ties to energy suppliers: pipelines across Venezuela and Canada to the Pacific, pipelines in Iran and Sudan, tidying up relations with the Saudis and Central Asians. Soon we would need to decide: if China uses its navy to blockade Taiwan, how hard and how fast do we react? Some assert that the mostly like cause of a US-Chinese war will be Taiwan, a humiliating issue for the Chinese, but both sides have been cautious for the most part. The US has recognized that Taiwan is part of China and that neither side should disturb the status quo unilaterally, China accepts our contacts with Taiwan, and the Taiwanese Kuomintang is seeking good relations with Beijing. Temperatures have risen occasionally but never for long: when China objected to our arms sales to Taiwan we dialed it back; when the former Taiwanese president visited the US, China sent ships to the straits on exercises, the U.S. Navy went to keep an eye on them, and things cooled down. China could use missiles to attack our ships and Taiwan’s missiles, but they do not have landing craft. If they were to make a military move and fail, the humiliation would be catastrophic, and other outlying regions could get uppity. On Dec 27, 12:16 am, "Mercury.Sailor" <[email protected]> wrote: > Hi Xi!! :o) > > Some person on another message board posted this about China, I wanted > to know your thoughts, when you have time. > > He/she feels that China is building up its military in order to get > ready for war with the USA!!?? > > China is undergoing a wave of unrest – millions of people involved in > protests. With factories closing across the Pearl Delta, the engine of > the Chinese economy, watch for trouble there. Party hardliners don’t > want any more reform – they fear loss of control. They cannot allow > free speech, free media, freedom of association, elections, unions -- > protests would skyrocket. China has 250 million internet users and 600 > million cellphones, more dangers for the party. Can the Party reinvent > itself as it did after Mao? Do these clowns have that much > imagination? > > The party is trying to take credit for China’s economic progress, when > in fact they are spectators – or rather parasites – to the process. > Corruption is preventing a lot of necessary institutions from working. > The broken legal system abuses the powerless and the politically > unpopular, and allows counterfeit and unsafe products. There is little > modern accounting, and there are billions in non-performing loans on > the streets. For all its embrace of central planning, government knows > nothing of sensible investment and development, avoiding excess > capacity and so forth. There is virtually no oversight of local > governors or businesses, particularly in rural areas. Parasitic, > corrupt and inefficient state-owned enterprises distort the market and > drain financing. > > The recession is pounding the Chinese economy. Debt-ridden firms are > closing. They need millions of new jobs each year, and cannot keep up; > unemployment is spiking. The growth sustained by the flow of foreign > firms and capital to China has slowed. They have little economic > innovation. Western China is poor and getting poorer. Water pollution > is epidemic. > > China has no pension policy and shaky property rights, so the Chinese > already save instead of spending, to protect themselves. Add the one- > child-per-family policy, and parents, who need a son to take care of > them in their old age, are killing or abandoning their daughters, thus > creating demographic chaos for the next generation. > > Their problems will become our problems. Even before the current > crisis, America was at risk because we borrow billions of dollars from > the Chinese; we are vulnerable to blackmail. But now they need the > money for their own problems. > > Government will need to spend domestically now, not lend to us (or to > other potential international borrowers like the IMF). China has > failed to turn workers into consumers, so there will be little market > for imported goods. The Chinese insist on keeping their currency weak, > so the trade imbalance continues to flow outward from China to the > world. A protectionist war may ensue. Meanwhile their endless series > of coal plants is exacerbating the carbon problem. > > China thirsts for global respect, after two centuries of humiliations. > We want them to be players at the big table so they don’t go off and > create mischief (i.e. nuclear technology to Iran and Korea), but we > don’t want them impeding progress in solving problems. If needed, we > can form an anti-Chinese alliance. > > China is retooling its military doctrine to fight us, and we need to > do likewise. One early advantage for us is our naval installations at > either end of the Straits of Malacca, which brings China most of its > oil. China is sharpening up its naval capabilities – they have a base > on Hainan Island and good ties with countries that have good basing > sites – but they are still way behind. They are developing counter- > force weapons, buying submarines, and seeking energy sources that do > not transit the Strait. Happily, neither side is looking for a change > in the status quo ante on Taiwan; China will not risk the > embarrassment of taking on the U.S. in Taiwan and losing. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
