My comment: Rate of fall does not rise much, first phase of this crisis yet.
Peace and best wishes. Xi http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFTLrvbYYuMM&refer=home Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate reached the highest level since 1992 and payrolls tumbled in January, with millions more losses likely until a fiscal stimulus and emergency lending programs begin to temper the U.S. economy’s freefall. The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the Labor Department said today in Washington. Payrolls fell by 598,000, the biggest monthly decline since December 1974. Losses spanned almost all industries, spanning from construction and manufacturing to retailing, trucking, media and finance. “We are in the middle of a very severe, a violent, collapse in activity and it could go on for months,” James Galbraith, an economics professor at the University of Texas in Austin, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. The report will likely diminish objections “that somehow the president’s recovery plan is too large and should be trimmed back.” Obama, who predicted a “dismal” report, is trying to push lawmakers to approve a package of about $900 billion, and in three days plans to announce a new effort to shore up credit markets. The rate of the job market’s decline means it’s unlikely the steps will halt a collapse in consumer spending until the second half of the year, economists said. Millions Hurt “We’ll see households pull way back, the economy is still in freefall,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at HIS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “We’ll probably see job losses of another 2 million to 3 million before this is over.” Payrolls have already plunged by 3.57 million so far. Treasuries slipped while stock-index futures headed higher after the figures, indicating some investors feared an even worse January employment report. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index gained 0.5 percent to 844.70 at 9:11 a.m. in New York. Benchmark 10- year note yields rose to 2.93 percent from 2.90 percent late yesterday. The loss of jobs, at employers ranging from manufacturers like Caterpillar Inc. to retailers such as Macy’s Inc., is shattering consumer confidence and crippling spending. Household purchases fell more than 3 percent at an annual rate in the past two quarters, the first time that’s happened since at least 1947. With a revised decline of 597,000 jobs in November, revisions subtracted 66,000 workers from previously reported payroll figures for the last two months of 2008. The 3.57 million of losses since the recession started in December 2007 marks the biggest employment slump of any economic contraction in the postwar period. Worst on Record Last month’s losses mark the first time since records began in 1939 that job cuts exceeded half a million in three consecutive months. Payrolls were forecast to drop 540,000, according to the median estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates of the decrease ranged from 400,000 to 750,000. The jobless rate was projected to jump to 7.5 percent. Forecasts ranged from 7.3 percent to 7.6 percent. The House of Representatives last week passed an $819 billion stimulus package that includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The Senate is working on a plan that is closer to $900 billion. “A failure to act and to act now will turn crisis into catastrophe and guarantee a longer recession,” Obama told lawmakers on Feb. 4 in Washington. Factory Jobs Today’s report showed factory payrolls decreased by 207,000, the biggest drop since October 1982, after declining 162,000 in the prior month. Economists had forecast a January drop of 145,000. The decrease included a loss of 31,300 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts industries. Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, on Jan. 30 said it plans to cut 2,110 workers in addition to the 20,000 reductions it reported earlier in the month. Payrolls at builders declined 111,000 after decreasing 86,000. Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, restaurants and retailers, subtracted 279,000 workers after cutting 327,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 45,100 after a decline of 82,700. Financial firms reduced payrolls by 42,000, after a 27,000 decrease the prior month. Government payrolls increased by 6,000 after shrinking by 10,000 the prior month. Retailers Hit Saks Inc., Target Corp., Starbucks Corp. and Home Depot Inc. last month reported plans to reduce workers. Others following suit in February include Macy’s. The second-largest U.S. department-store company said it will cut 7,000 jobs, eliminate executives’ merit increases for 2008, and trim its contribution to staff 401(k) retirement-savings plans. “This is a time when nothing should be considered a sacred cow,” Macy’s Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said on a conference call with investors and analysts. News of job losses continued this week. PNC Financial Services Group Inc. will reduce almost 10 percent of its workforce by 2011, and Estee Lauder Cos., the maker of Clinique and Bobbi Brown cosmetics, will slash 2,000 jobs over the next two years. Government jobs are now also in jeopardy. The U.S. Postal Service plans to trim headcount through attrition and early retirement, and has asked lawmakers to allow it to reduce its six-days-a-week delivery schedule to pare expenses. Working Hours The average work week remained at 33.3 hours in January. Average weekly hours worked by production workers fell to 39.8 hours from 39.9 hours, while overtime decreased to 2.9 hours from 3 hours. Average weekly earnings rose by $1.67 to $614.72. Workers’ average hourly wages rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.46 from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.9 percent higher than in January 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2 percent increase from December and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month period. With today’s report, the Labor Department also issued revisions to payrolls going back to 2004. The annual benchmark revision, which aligns the data with corporate tax records and covers the period from April 2007 to March 2008, subtracted 89,000 workers from payrolls in the 12 months ended in March, exceeding the 21,000 reduction Labor estimated in October. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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