Where's the bottom?

And does this mean the first "stimulus" plan was a failure?  Sure, the
banks are still open, but the economy continues to plummet.

And will throwing money at the problem fix it?

On Feb 6, 9:01 am, "[email protected]" <[email protected]> wrote:
> My comment: Rate of fall does not rise much, first phase of this
> crisis yet.
>
> Peace and best wishes.
>
> Xi
>
> http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFTLrvbYYuMM&refe...
>
> Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate reached the highest level
> since 1992 and payrolls tumbled in January, with millions more losses
> likely until a fiscal stimulus and emergency lending programs begin to
> temper the U.S. economy’s freefall.
>
> The jobless rate rose to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent in December, the
> Labor Department said today in Washington. Payrolls fell by 598,000,
> the biggest monthly decline since December 1974. Losses spanned almost
> all industries, spanning from construction and manufacturing to
> retailing, trucking, media and finance.
>
> “We are in the middle of a very severe, a violent, collapse in
> activity and it could go on for months,” James Galbraith, an economics
> professor at the University of Texas in Austin, said in an interview
> with Bloomberg Television. The report will likely diminish objections
> “that somehow the president’s recovery plan is too large and should be
> trimmed back.”
>
> Obama, who predicted a “dismal” report, is trying to push lawmakers to
> approve a package of about $900 billion, and in three days plans to
> announce a new effort to shore up credit markets. The rate of the job
> market’s decline means it’s unlikely the steps will halt a collapse in
> consumer spending until the second half of the year, economists said.
>
> Millions Hurt
>
> “We’ll see households pull way back, the economy is still in
> freefall,” said Nariman Behravesh, chief economist at HIS Global
> Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts. “We’ll probably see job losses of
> another 2 million to 3 million before this is over.” Payrolls have
> already plunged by 3.57 million so far.
>
> Treasuries slipped while stock-index futures headed higher after the
> figures, indicating some investors feared an even worse January
> employment report. Contracts on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index
> gained 0.5 percent to 844.70 at 9:11 a.m. in New York. Benchmark 10-
> year note yields rose to 2.93 percent from 2.90 percent late
> yesterday.
>
> The loss of jobs, at employers ranging from manufacturers like
> Caterpillar Inc. to retailers such as Macy’s Inc., is shattering
> consumer confidence and crippling spending. Household purchases fell
> more than 3 percent at an annual rate in the past two quarters, the
> first time that’s happened since at least 1947.
>
> With a revised decline of 597,000 jobs in November, revisions
> subtracted 66,000 workers from previously reported payroll figures for
> the last two months of 2008. The 3.57 million of losses since the
> recession started in December 2007 marks the biggest employment slump
> of any economic contraction in the postwar period.
>
> Worst on Record
>
> Last month’s losses mark the first time since records began in 1939
> that job cuts exceeded half a million in three consecutive months.
>
> Payrolls were forecast to drop 540,000, according to the median
> estimate of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates of the
> decrease ranged from 400,000 to 750,000.
>
> The jobless rate was projected to jump to 7.5 percent. Forecasts
> ranged from 7.3 percent to 7.6 percent.
>
> The House of Representatives last week passed an $819 billion stimulus
> package that includes tax cuts and infrastructure spending. The Senate
> is working on a plan that is closer to $900 billion.
>
> “A failure to act and to act now will turn crisis into catastrophe and
> guarantee a longer recession,” Obama told lawmakers on Feb. 4 in
> Washington.
>
> Factory Jobs
>
> Today’s report showed factory payrolls decreased by 207,000, the
> biggest drop since October 1982, after declining 162,000 in the prior
> month. Economists had forecast a January drop of 145,000. The decrease
> included a loss of 31,300 jobs in auto manufacturing and parts
> industries.
>
> Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of construction equipment, on
> Jan. 30 said it plans to cut 2,110 workers in addition to the 20,000
> reductions it reported earlier in the month.
>
> Payrolls at builders declined 111,000 after decreasing 86,000.
>
> Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies,
> restaurants and retailers, subtracted 279,000 workers after cutting
> 327,000. Retail payrolls decreased by 45,100 after a decline of
> 82,700. Financial firms reduced payrolls by 42,000, after a 27,000
> decrease the prior month.
>
> Government payrolls increased by 6,000 after shrinking by 10,000 the
> prior month.
>
> Retailers Hit
>
> Saks Inc., Target Corp., Starbucks Corp. and Home Depot Inc. last
> month reported plans to reduce workers. Others following suit in
> February include Macy’s. The second-largest U.S. department-store
> company said it will cut 7,000 jobs, eliminate executives’ merit
> increases for 2008, and trim its contribution to staff 401(k)
> retirement-savings plans.
>
> “This is a time when nothing should be considered a sacred cow,”
> Macy’s Chief Executive Officer Terry Lundgren said on a conference
> call with investors and analysts.
>
> News of job losses continued this week. PNC Financial Services Group
> Inc. will reduce almost 10 percent of its workforce by 2011, and Estee
> Lauder Cos., the maker of Clinique and Bobbi Brown cosmetics, will
> slash 2,000 jobs over the next two years.
>
> Government jobs are now also in jeopardy. The U.S. Postal Service
> plans to trim headcount through attrition and early retirement, and
> has asked lawmakers to allow it to reduce its six-days-a-week delivery
> schedule to pare expenses.
>
> Working Hours
>
> The average work week remained at 33.3 hours in January. Average
> weekly hours worked by production workers fell to 39.8 hours from 39.9
> hours, while overtime decreased to 2.9 hours from 3 hours. Average
> weekly earnings rose by $1.67 to $614.72.
>
> Workers’ average hourly wages rose 5 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $18.46
> from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.9 percent higher than in
> January 2008. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg had forecast a 0.2
> percent increase from December and a 3.6 percent gain for the 12-month
> period.
>
> With today’s report, the Labor Department also issued revisions to
> payrolls going back to 2004. The annual benchmark revision, which
> aligns the data with corporate tax records and covers the period from
> April 2007 to March 2008, subtracted 89,000 workers from payrolls in
> the 12 months ended in March, exceeding the 21,000 reduction Labor
> estimated in October.
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