My comment: Of course, 100% rise of any price is not good news. But it is a good sign that means recovery of economic activity.
"The tone of the market has become bullish," Sharma said. (Quoted from that article). Peace and best wishes. Xi Indian Iron-Ore Prices May Double on China Revival, Group Says http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7w06t5iA97s Feb. 10 (Bloomberg) -- India’s iron-ore export prices are expected to double from last year’s low as China, the world’s biggest steel producer, raises purchases, an industry group said. Prices for immediate delivery are expected to increase to as much as $90 a metric ton in the “near-term,” compared with $45 in November, said R.K. Sharma, secretary general of the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries, a grouping of iron-ore miners. Prices are currently about $84 a ton, he said. China’s steelmakers, which cut output in the second half, are benefiting from the 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) federal stimulus plan to revive growth. India’s iron-ore exports in December rose 38 percent, the first gain in eight months. “The tone of the market has become bullish,” Sharma said. China’s package, which will increase spending on housing and railroads, has revived steel demand, the Ministry of Commerce said on Feb. 5. Benchmark steel prices in the country jumped 46 percent from November when the government announced the stimulus package. The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of bulk commodity shipping costs, more than doubled between Feb. 6 and the 22-year low touched on Dec. 5. India produced 160 million tons of iron ore in the year ended March 31, of which two-thirds was sold to China, according to the federation. The nation holds 25 billion tons of ore reserves, 4 percent of which is high-quality ore. Steel demand may rise by the end of the first quarter, Lou Schorsch, head of the flat-rolled business in the Americas for Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal, the world’s largest steelmaker, said last week. International prices of iron ore and coking coal, the main steelmaking materials, surged to a record last year. On 9 feb, 14:27, Xi Ling <xieu.l...@gmail.com> wrote: > This thread follows "A hope for the global economy (part 1)" > > http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/50e6... > > and "How could be 2010" > > http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/e240... > > My comment: This is not a prediction yet, but we can see in the picture that > it seems that the Baltic Dry Index consolidates its rise. I suggest to watch > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=BDIY%3AIND > > clicking on Relative Strength and range 5 years (click on 5y above). We will > watch that today Relative Strength -in the indicators row- is above 92 > (scale 100) and also, we will see that the chart is drawing a shape like the > letter U, and the bottom of that U is already behind us. This is why we > called it a U-type crisis, as usual in economic crisis, versus V-type crisis > that are usual in financial crisis. > > Hereinafter, authorities must watch carefully not just economic activity, > but also inflation, because it could rallyif economic activity raises too > fast. > > I have to repeat that this passes to Main Street in at least 6 to 9 months, > and it uses to be one whole year. If finally this trend goes on, rebound in > Main Street would happen probably in early 2010. > > Please, also read this article "Iron Ore Rebounding as Vale, BHP Face Cuts > From China (Update1)" > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azc6MrwvxeFk&refe... > > in particular this: "The tone of the iron ore market has definitely > changed," said Ric Ronge, who helps manage the equivalent of $1 billion at > Pengana Capital in Melbourne > > And this one "China Stocks Rise to Four-Month High, Led by China Cosco > Gains" > > http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHf559Hglp3c > > Also, I have to repeat that this scenario would not apply in full to some > economies that, beside the global crisis, have their own local crisis such > as some in Europe -UK, Iceland due to financial crisis or Eastern Europe, > Ireland and Spain due to construction crisis-, USA due to fiscal, structural > and financial crisis, and some commodity producers with large population > which budgets lie above 30% or 40% on commodity exports such as Russia, > Iran, Venezuela, and others. Also, some countries such as China are using > this crisis to change its development model, that change could be finished > within 2009 or not, if not probably the first half of 2010 would be hard > yet. Also, we should not expect that India leaves this crisis too soon as it > depends too closely on developed economies and it is not changing its > development model. In my opinion, the areas where we will see more clear > this rebound in 2010 will be Japan, SKorea, Latinamerica (except Venezuela > and Ecuador), Africa, Middle East (except Iran and Iraq) and ASEAN (except > Malaysia). I can forget some large commodity producers. > > If rise in global activity and international trade consolidates along next > coming months, hopefully slowly, we should expect that it will push > equipment and manufacturing in the second half of 2009 and in 2010 it will > push consumption, goods, retail, consumer services, etc. In most economies > not cited above, it will mean that their growth rates will be closer to > rates that they had until 2008. > > It will affect price inflation that probably will rise again after this > short close-to-deflationary time. As most of those economies will not be too > large, the deflationary recession in Europe and USA and limited growth in > those countries could neutralize each to other, commodities will rise slowly > and it will produce some inflation but not too high. If China finishes its > transition in 2009, global inflation, in particular related to comodities, > would rally. > > If growth pass through contagion to US economy and the rest of Europe at the > end of 2010, the hyperinflationary crisis would start. But this will be > another message, if someone shows interest on that. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > baltic_dry_index_feb09_2.gif > 2 KVerDescargar --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to world-thread@googlegroups.com To unsubscribe from this group, send email to world-thread+unsubscr...@googlegroups.com For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
