My comment: The Baltic Dry Index is behaving exactly as it should. It raises step by step like stairs. That figure predicts recovery of the global economy in a timeframe of about one year, and also it tells that we left its bottom behind. But just for this phase of the crisis, the hyperinflationary phase is still ahead.
If we see the enclosed figure we can realise its shape, starting to be a U-type chat. Some gurus wrongly predicted a L-type shape because at the begining of the third phase of the U, growth is very little, it might make us believe that it is flat. But it is not flat, it is a soft recovery, as it should be. Fast recovery, such as a V-shape crisis typical of financial crisis, is not posible in economic crisis. Economic crisis are caused by economic inbalances, usually failures in the economic structure, economic agents and their relations are unstable or unsustainable and they break. This crisis is not an exception. But also, to force recovery too fast would be wrong because that recovery should be based on the old economic structures, exactly the structures that produced the crisis (this one or any other). Therefore, that crisis would appear again as soon as our force stops. That balance is very delicate. Governments must push recovery, yet soft enough to let agents adapt to the new economic structure. Peace and best wishes. Xi --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
<<inline: bdi_gc.gif>>
