Thanks.. good.. but I have another or a complementary point of view.. The American / western financial system should have collapsed.. Remember that cartoon Youtube documentary I introduced long time ago in here ( I wish to find it again), which showed us how Cheating in banking system escalated..till it would explode at the end..
The American and English were very successful as they were the only cheaters in the neighborhood, however all inhabitants of that neighborhood learned the same cheating technique. That made things collapse.. If you have one or two thieves, they might be rich by stealing.. But if all the inhabitants became also thieves, then there will be time when the thieves will find nothing to steal.. This is what happened to the Americans and English. ======= S1000+ ======= --- On Sat, 2/21/09, xi <[email protected]> wrote: From: xi <[email protected]> Subject: Why techniques that Americans use and teach in universities are useless nowadays To: "World-thread" <[email protected]> Date: Saturday, February 21, 2009, 11:34 AM Since Bretton Woods the world was divided into two economic blocs. On one side the soviet bloc, on the other side the rest of the world that could be called Western bloc as non-Western economies were rare. Economic trade between two blocs was limited and not relevant for any of those economic blocs. We could say that whatever Soviet Union did had impact into their bloc, but no economic decission among members of its bloc had important consequences on the Soviet Union. Same can be told about US economy into its bloc. US economy was the bigger economy in its bloc, its difference with the second one was big both the US dollar In the nineties, two facts changed. On the one side, the Soviet Union collapsed. At that time whatever US economy did had huge impact into their bloc, but no economic decission among members of its bloc had important consequences on the US economy because they were small yet compared to US economy. It gave a huge politic power to US governments but, also, unintended economic consequences. Regarding economy, something more important happened. The collapse of the Soviet Union made that most Eastern European countries became part of the Western economic bloc in terms of trade. Even the Soviet Union itself. And, in particular, all those countries became important trade partners of the European Union. On the other side, in 2002, the Euro was introduced as a single currency available for hundreds of millions. Under the European Central Bank (ECB). Thereinafter, decissions taken by the ECB became more and more important. Thereinafter, whatever the ECB decided had important consequences in US economy. Higher and higher consequences as the Eurozone´s economy grew dramatically as more countries joined its currency. Reaching a point where ECB decissions have stronger consequences on US economy than US government decissions on the Eurozone, because the Eurozone economy became bigger than the US economy and remain bigger today. Economic techniques that American economists used, and still use today, do not take into account external influences (1). It worked while Western and Eastern economies were not big enough to produce relevant influence on US economy. Once economies in Europe, Japan, China and others are able to produce important influences in US economy, the ceteris paribus (1) assumption does not work any longer and their techniques do not produce any longer the results that US economic authorities expected. This is what has changed in the global economy in the last years. It is not a unipolar world any longer. Any mistake by any economy rebounds and hurts back as a boomerang and makes the problem even worse for that economy. Techniques that do not count on external factors become useless, even more during crisis. Peace and best wishes Xi *** Somehow this thread follows the thread "Videogames, economic predictions and gurus" http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/10132d6c34bf9620?hl=en# (1) Cēterīs paribus is a Latin phrase, literally translated as "with other things the same." It is commonly rendered in English as "all other things being equal." A prediction, or a statement about causal or logical connections between two states of affairs, is qualified by ceteris paribus in order to acknowledge, and to rule out, the possibility of other factors which could override the relationship between the antecedent and the consequent. A ceteris paribus assumption is often fundamental to the predictive purpose of scientific inquiry. In order to formulate scientific laws, it is usually necessary to rule out factors which interfere with examining a specific causal relationship. Experimentally, the ceteris paribus assumption is realized when a scientist controls for all of the independent variables other than the one under study, so that the effect of a single independent variable on the dependent variable can be isolated. By holding all the other relevant factors constant, a scientist is able to focus on the unique effects of a given factor in a complex causal situation. Such assumptions are also relevant to the descriptive purpose of modeling a theory. In such circumstances, analysts such as physicists, economists, and behavioral psychologists apply simplifying assumptions in order to devise or explain an analytical framework that does not necessarily prove cause and effect but is still useful for describing fundamental concepts within a realm of inquiry. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceteris_paribus --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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