It has already collapsed or exploded ! Peace and best wishes.
Xi On Feb 22, 8:04 pm, "Sumerian.." <[email protected]> wrote: > Thanks.. good.. but I have another or a complementary point of view.. > > The American / western financial system should have collapsed.. Remember that > cartoon Youtube documentary I introduced long time ago in here ( I wish to > find it again), which showed us how Cheating in banking system > escalated..till it would explode at the end.. > > The American and English were very successful as they were the only cheaters > in the neighborhood, however all inhabitants of that neighborhood learned > the same cheating technique. That made things collapse.. > > If you have one or two thieves, they might be rich by stealing.. But if all > the inhabitants became also thieves, then there will be time when the thieves > will find nothing to steal.. > This is what happened to the Americans and English. > > ======= > S1000+ > ======= > > --- On Sat, 2/21/09, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > From: xi <[email protected]> > Subject: Why techniques that Americans use and teach in universities are > useless nowadays > To: "World-thread" <[email protected]> > Date: Saturday, February 21, 2009, 11:34 AM > > Since Bretton Woods the world was divided into two economic blocs. On > one side the soviet bloc, on the other side the rest of the world that > could be called Western bloc as non-Western economies were rare. > Economic trade between two blocs was limited and not relevant for any > of those economic blocs. We could say that whatever Soviet Union did > had impact into their bloc, but no economic decission among members of > its bloc had important consequences on the Soviet Union. Same can be > told about US economy into its bloc. US economy was the bigger economy > in its bloc, its difference with the second one was big both the US > dollar > > In the nineties, two facts changed. On the one side, the Soviet Union > collapsed. At that time whatever US economy did had huge impact into > their bloc, but no economic decission among members of its bloc had > important consequences on the US economy because they were small yet > compared to US economy. It gave a huge politic power to US governments > but, also, unintended economic consequences. > > Regarding economy, something more important happened. The collapse of > the Soviet Union made that most Eastern European countries became part > of the Western economic bloc in terms of trade. Even the Soviet Union > itself. And, in particular, all those countries became important trade > partners of the European Union. > > On the other side, in 2002, the Euro was introduced as a single > currency available for hundreds of millions. Under the European > Central Bank (ECB). Thereinafter, decissions taken by the ECB became > more and more important. Thereinafter, whatever the ECB decided had > important consequences in US economy. Higher and higher consequences > as the Eurozone´s economy grew dramatically as more countries joined > its currency. Reaching a point where ECB decissions have stronger > consequences on US economy than US government decissions on the > Eurozone, because the Eurozone economy became bigger than the US > economy and remain bigger today. > > Economic techniques that American economists used, and still use > today, do not take into account external influences (1). It worked > while Western and Eastern economies were not big enough to produce > relevant influence on US economy. Once economies in Europe, Japan, > China and others are able to produce important influences in US > economy, the ceteris paribus (1) assumption does not work any longer > and their techniques do not produce any longer the results that US > economic authorities expected. > > This is what has changed in the global economy in the last years. It > is not a unipolar world any longer. Any mistake by any economy > rebounds and hurts back as a boomerang and makes the problem even > worse for that economy. Techniques that do not count on external > factors become useless, even more during crisis. > > Peace and best wishes > > Xi > > *** Somehow this thread follows the thread "Videogames, economic > predictions and > gurus"http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/1013... > > (1) Cēterīs paribus is a Latin phrase, literally translated as "with > other things the same." It is commonly rendered in English as "all > other things being equal." A prediction, or a statement about causal > or logical connections between two states of affairs, is qualified by > ceteris paribus in order to acknowledge, and to rule out, the > possibility of other factors which could override the relationship > between the antecedent and the consequent. > > A ceteris paribus assumption is often fundamental to the predictive > purpose of scientific inquiry. In order to formulate scientific laws, > it is usually necessary to rule out factors which interfere with > examining a specific causal relationship. Experimentally, the ceteris > paribus assumption is realized when a scientist controls for all of > the independent variables other than the one under study, so that the > effect of a single independent variable on the dependent variable can > be isolated. By holding all the other relevant factors constant, a > scientist is able to focus on the unique effects of a given factor in > a complex causal situation. > > Such assumptions are also relevant to the descriptive purpose of > modeling a theory. In such circumstances, analysts such as > physicists, > economists, and behavioral psychologists apply simplifying > assumptions > in order to devise or explain an analytical framework that does not > necessarily prove cause and effect but is still useful for describing > fundamental concepts within a realm of inquiry. > > http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceteris_paribus --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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