It has already collapsed or exploded !

Peace and best wishes.

Xi

On Feb 22, 8:04 pm, "Sumerian.." <[email protected]> wrote:
> Thanks.. good.. but I have another or a complementary point of view..
>
> The American / western financial system should have collapsed.. Remember that 
> cartoon Youtube documentary I introduced long time ago in here ( I wish to 
> find it again), which showed us how Cheating in banking system 
> escalated..till it would explode at the end..
>
> The American and English were very successful as they were the only cheaters 
> in the neighborhood,  however all inhabitants of that neighborhood learned 
> the same cheating technique. That made things collapse..
>
> If you have one or two thieves, they might be rich by stealing.. But if all 
> the inhabitants became also thieves, then there will be time when the thieves 
> will find nothing to steal..
> This is what happened to the Americans and English.
>
> =======
>   S1000+
>   =======
>
> --- On Sat, 2/21/09, xi <[email protected]> wrote:
> From: xi <[email protected]>
> Subject: Why techniques that Americans use and teach in universities are  
> useless nowadays
> To: "World-thread" <[email protected]>
> Date: Saturday, February 21, 2009, 11:34 AM
>
> Since Bretton Woods the world was divided into two economic blocs. On
> one side the soviet bloc, on the other side the rest of the world that
> could be called Western bloc as non-Western economies were rare.
> Economic trade between two blocs was limited and not relevant for any
> of those economic blocs. We could say that whatever Soviet Union did
> had impact into their bloc, but no economic decission among members of
> its bloc had important consequences on the Soviet Union. Same can be
> told about US economy into its bloc. US economy was the bigger economy
> in its bloc, its difference with the second one was big both the US
> dollar
>
> In the nineties, two facts changed. On the one side, the Soviet Union
> collapsed. At that time  whatever US economy did had huge impact into
> their bloc, but no economic decission among members of its bloc had
> important consequences on the US economy because they were small yet
> compared to US economy. It gave a huge politic power to US governments
> but, also, unintended economic consequences.
>
> Regarding economy, something more important happened. The collapse of
> the Soviet Union made that most Eastern European countries became part
> of the Western economic bloc in terms of trade. Even the Soviet Union
> itself. And, in particular, all those countries became important trade
> partners of the European Union.
>
> On the other side, in 2002, the Euro was introduced as a single
> currency available for hundreds of millions. Under the European
> Central Bank (ECB). Thereinafter, decissions taken by the ECB became
> more and more important. Thereinafter, whatever the ECB decided had
> important consequences in US economy. Higher and higher consequences
> as the Eurozone´s economy grew dramatically as more countries joined
> its currency. Reaching a point where ECB decissions have stronger
> consequences on US economy than US government decissions on the
> Eurozone, because the Eurozone economy became bigger than the US
> economy and remain bigger today.
>
> Economic techniques that American economists used, and still use
> today, do not take into account external influences (1). It worked
> while Western and Eastern economies were not big enough to produce
> relevant influence on US economy. Once economies in Europe, Japan,
> China and others are able to produce important influences in US
> economy, the ceteris paribus (1) assumption does not work any longer
> and their techniques do not produce any longer the results that US
> economic authorities expected.
>
> This is what has changed in the global economy in the last years. It
> is not a unipolar world any longer. Any mistake by any economy
> rebounds and hurts back as a boomerang and makes the problem even
> worse for that economy. Techniques that do not count on external
> factors become useless, even more during crisis.
>
> Peace and best wishes
>
> Xi
>
> *** Somehow this thread follows the thread "Videogames, economic
> predictions and 
> gurus"http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/1013...
>
> (1) Cēterīs paribus is a Latin phrase, literally translated as "with
> other things the same." It is commonly rendered in English as "all
> other things being equal." A prediction, or a statement about causal
> or logical connections between two states of affairs, is qualified by
> ceteris paribus in order to acknowledge, and to rule out, the
> possibility of other factors which could override the relationship
> between the antecedent and the consequent.
>
> A ceteris paribus assumption is often fundamental to the predictive
> purpose of scientific inquiry. In order to formulate scientific laws,
> it is usually necessary to rule out factors which interfere with
> examining a specific causal relationship. Experimentally, the ceteris
> paribus assumption is realized when a scientist controls for all of
> the independent variables other than the one under study, so that the
> effect of a single independent variable on the dependent variable can
> be isolated. By holding all the other relevant factors constant, a
> scientist is able to focus on the unique effects of a given factor in
> a complex causal situation.
>
> Such assumptions are also relevant to the descriptive purpose of
> modeling a theory. In such circumstances, analysts such as
> physicists,
> economists, and behavioral psychologists apply simplifying
> assumptions
> in order to devise or explain an analytical framework that does not
> necessarily prove cause and effect but is still useful for describing
> fundamental concepts within a realm of inquiry.
>
> http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ceteris_paribus
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