Thanks. My only comment regards defaults on mortgages. Here in the states we are bombarded with stories regarding the default rates "skyrocketing" "out of control" "dramatically increasing".
Wait a minute. This morning they gave the percentages of mortgages in default... it was around 4%. The rate for those who are "behind" on their payments is around 7%. This means 96% are not in default. This means 92% are not even behind.... what am I missing? It reminds me quite a bit of the heterosexual AIDS rates in the US during the 90s. Each year we were told about these dramatic increases... that the numbers had doubled...etc.... In fact the actual numbers were always low. Proportionately they were increasing dramatically only because the original baseline was so low. Said another way, assume the suicide rate for teenagers is 2 in 100. That spikes to 4 in 100 and it's a "1005 increase!!" or goes to 6 in 100 it's a 200% increase. We've got to use a bit of common sense here.... On Mar 4, 2:27 pm, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > My comment: This might be of help to evaluate US economy. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > U.S. Economy Weakened in January, February, Fed > Sayshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aQU8_2hWghsU&refe... > > March 4 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy “deteriorated further” in > almost all corners of the country over the last two months as consumer > spending slumped and manufacturing declined, the Federal Reserve said > in its regional business survey. > > Ten of 12 Fed district banks reported “weaker conditions or declines” > in their regional economies, and respondents didn’t expect a > “significant pickup” until late 2009 or early 2010, the Fed said today > in its Beige Book release, published two weeks before officials meet > in Washington to set monetary policy. Housing “remained in the > doldrums in most areas,” the Fed said. > > Lending fell across the U.S. and credit availability “remained tight,” > the Fed said. The recession and financial crisis have prompted > Chairman Ben S. Bernanke to start a $1 trillion lending program and > buy $600 billion of housing debt, while the Obama administration is > betting its $787 billion fiscal stimulus will reverse the economy’s > slide. > > “We’re in the throes of the deepest part of the recession now,” Kevin > Flanagan, a Purchase, New York-based fixed-income strategist for > Morgan Stanley’s individual-investor clients, said in an interview > with Bloomberg Television. > > The report reflects information reported through Feb. 23 and > summarized by staffers at the San Francisco Fed, which oversees the > largest portion of the U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee > next meets in Washington March 17-18. > > Stocks Surge > > Stocks climbed today, bolstered by Chinese authorities considering > additional stimulus measures to help spur that nation’s growth. The > Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 3.3 percent to 719.61 at 2:54 > p.m. in New York. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 3 > percent from 2.88 percent late yesterday. > > “Consumer spending remained very weak on balance, albeit with slight > firming noted by many districts,” the Fed report said. About half of > the districts said consumer demand was slower or “fell significantly” > from a year earlier. > > The economy shrank at a 6.2 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, > the most since 1982, revised government figures showed last week. Home > construction contracted at a 22 percent pace following a 16 percent > decline in the prior quarter. > > The recession in U.S. manufacturing persisted for a 13th month in > February, a private report showed this week. Other reports showed > consumer spending rose in January with a spurt of post-holiday > discounts, and construction dropped more than twice as much as > anticipated. > > ‘Steep Declines’ > > “Reports on manufacturing activity suggested steep declines in > activity in some sectors and pronounced declines overall,” the Fed > said. > > Exceptions to the economy’s weakening included food production and > pharmaceuticals, the Fed said. The Boston district reported “double- > digit” sales gains for biopharmaceutical companies, the central bank > said. > > In January, Fed officials downgraded their forecasts for growth this > year, seeing a deeper contraction as the credit crunch tightens. Most > forecast a contraction of 0.5 percent to 1.3 percent. > > The White House last week forecast a less severe U.S. economic > contraction this year and faster growth next year than most economists > are predicting, saying gross domestic product will shrink 1.2 percent > in 2009, followed by an expansion of 3.2 percent in 2010. > > Separately today, the administration set loan modification guidelines > for its $75 billion homeowner rescue plan, agreeing to pay lenders for > altering troubled mortgages while reducing borrowers’ interest rates > to as low as 2 percent. > > Home Values > > The Fed report said home prices kept falling this year “with little or > no signs of a deceleration evident.” Homebuilders “remain pessimistic > regarding recovery prospects this year,” the Fed said. Demand for > commercial real estate “weakened significantly,” and the retreat in > construction is expected to continue through at least year-end, the > Fed survey said. > > U.S. employers probably eliminated 650,000 jobs from payrolls in > February, the most since 1949, while the jobless rate may have > increased to 7.9 percent from 7.6 percent, according to the median > estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The Labor > Department will report the figures March 6. > > The Beige Book said unemployment is up in “all areas, reducing or > eliminating upward wage pressures.” Weaker demand is spurring > discounting of goods other than fuel and food, the Fed said. As such, > “upward price pressures continued to ease across a broad spectrum of > final goods and services,” the Fed said. > > The consumer price index was unchanged in January compared with a year > before. That was the first month without a year-on- year increase > since 1955. > > On 4 mar, 14:48, Kamakazee <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > Although Ryan, the top Republican on the House Budget Committee, > > praised some aspects of the budget, he also ripped into accounting > > methods - like budgeting for high initial war costs that demonstrate a > > savings later. > > > "So you assume in your budget that we're going to have a surge in 10 > > years [in Iraq], even though a surge, by definition, is up, then back > > down," Ryan said, pressing Orszag. > > > "To go back, $1.6 trillion of these savings is because you are saying > > we are not going to have a surge for 10 years, we are going to ramp it > > down," he continued. > > > Orszag replied: "About a trillion-and-a-half dollars is because the > > war ends more quickly under this budget then we think the alternative > > would have been." > > > NY Post > > > On Mar 3, 8:50 am, Kamakazee <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > Depends on which party you're in!! With a Dem president, the Reps > > > would squeal it's misguided and disingenous to inflate hopes based on > > > promises. I disagree with this premise and think that it's the job of > > > the president to do exactly that. > > > > My ponit in the post above isn't that he's building hopes, it's almost > > > the opposite; taking credit for certain things by first inflating the > > > severity of the current situation which thereafter inflates any > > > progress made in that regard. > > > > Hope is great but don't lie to get there. > > > > On Mar 3, 8:02 am, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > In my opinion, nowadays and since one year ago more or less, many > > > > predictions are wishes that do not pass a reality check. > > > > > I am not an American, therefore I have no right to judge whether that > > > > is politically correct or not. But I can make a question. Did you > > > > ponder that CCI (Consumer Confidence Index) is just 25? Do you ponder > > > > the high social and politic risk that it means? > > > > > The Conference Board told that "The Index now stands at 25.0 > > > > (1985=100), down from 37.4 in January. The Present Situation Index > > > > declined to 21.2 from 29.7 last month." (*). In other words, the > > > > situation is mostly sustained based on hope, rather than on facts. > > > > Under these circumstances is politically correct that a politician > > > > tries to sustain that hope? > > > > > Of course, those are just politic questions related to US domestic > > > > issues that only Americans can ponder. > > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > > Xi > > > > > (*) > > > > See:http://groups.google.es/group/world-thread/browse_thread/thread/33391... > > > > and http://www.conference-board.org/economics/ConsumerConfidence.cfm > > > > > On 3 mar, 14:31, Kamakazee <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > > And ya read it here first.... > > > > > > "Winding down the war in Iraq > > > > > Assumptions: Obama is planning to pull a large number of combat troops > > > > > out of Iraq by the end of August 2010. > > > > > > The White House estimates the troop withdrawal, even as operations in > > > > > Afghanistan continue, will preserve $1.5 trillion over 10 years that > > > > > would otherwise be spent. > > > > > > Reality check: The real savings, some say, is actually going to be > > > > > less since the administration was measuring its proposals against a > > > > > baseline that assumes the country would spend what it currently spends > > > > > in Iraq for each of the next 10 years. " > > > > > > In full: > > > > > > Reality check on Obama's deficit plan > > > > > The administration laid out several key approaches to whittling down > > > > > U.S. debt. Whether they pan out as the president hopes is a question > > > > > mark > > > > > > NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- President Obama won't submit a formal 2010 > > > > > budget request to Congress until next month. But the head-knocking on > > > > > the Hill over fiscal priorities begins in earnest this week. > > > > > > Starting on Tuesday, White House budget director Peter Orszag, > > > > > Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben > > > > > Bernanke will all be testifying before Congressional committees about > > > > > the budget. > > > > > > A main question will be whether Obama's proposals can reduce the > > > > > deficit as much as the administration estimates they will: $2 trillion > > > > > over 10 years. > > > > > > Orszag bases that deficit-reduction estimate on four main factors: > > > > > economic recovery, collecting more revenue from high-income taxpayers, > > > > > curbing corporate tax breaks and winding down the war in Iraq. > > > > > > Given how unprecedented the downturn has been and the uncertainties in > > > > > the geopolitical situation, several of the factors the administration > > > > > is relying on to deliver its deficit-reduction promises are far from > > > > > guaranteed. > > > > > > Banking on economic- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text -... > > read more » --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. 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