http://www.russiatoday.com/About_Us/Blogs/With_words_we_govern_men___Disraeli.html
Most scholars have omitted economics in studies of war. However, economics and war are inseparable. Most previous studies have looked at the effects of war on economies of states. Today, when most developed or developing states have settled down, domestic economies and internal stability (by oppression or allowed freedoms) become top priorities. So, why do states fight each other? There are those that believe the cause to be simply the thirst for power, but some believe that it is more complex. Nevertheless, neither have done analyses of economies of states, and very few have gone as far as trying to explain why some states initiate attacks on other states. Narrowing down the beginning of this path to determine the correlation between economics and war, we first should look at economic stability. States that feel they cannot sustain a war effort are unlikely to go to war. But how would stability of an economy be measured? When investors look at futures, options, bonds, and stock markets, they often consider volatility of prices in order to see which commodity, firm, or bond has the least volatility. That means that investors look at entries that can provide them the most stability. This formula can also be looked at to compare two states’ economies on the same level, regardless of the size of the real GDP or its real growth. The volatility formula is such: LOGSi = LOG(Pi / P(i-1)) • LOG is the logarithmic function. • Pi is the current price • Pi-1 is the previous price ALOGS = Tlogs / n • ALOGS is the average of the logarithms. • Tlogs is the total of the logarithm for the time span. • n is the number of periods for the specified time span. • SSD is the sum of the squared differences. • indicates to add the squares of all n differences. • LOGSi is the logarithm of the price change for period i. • ALOGS is the average of the logarithms. • HV stands for Historic Volatility • TP = Total Periods What I have done is to gather a list of interstate conflicts from 1980-2003 (real GDP data is not completely available for the most current period). I gathered real GDP data from 1970-2003 for all states involved in the conflicts, broke them down according to attacking and defending states (attacking states having initiated the attack on the internationally recognized territory of the defending state), and then ran the formula for each of the states taking into account 5 years of real GDP data prior to the conflict. That is, if the conflict initiated in 1980, I would need to look at the years 1974-1979 for volatility. Here is the table that I came up with after running the stats. (click the original link to see the table) http://www.russiatoday.com/About_Us/Blogs/With_words_we_govern_men___Disraeli.html This table shows us that when two states face off against one another, the state with the higher real GDP volatility (that is, more unstable) will most likely get attacked by its rival. This table does not explain the reasons for the two nations going to war, but it is one of the first explanations needed to support the theory presented in a previous article that I wrote for RT titled Why Do We Go To War? It is necessary to look at the economies of both states involved in a dispute because that will present a more clear picture of which state is more likely to attack first, thus instigating an open conflict. To reiterate the theory being researched: A nation will be attacked if it has a weak economy compared to its rival, a strong central ideology, and if it presents a threat to the free flow of resources. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
