Very, very interesting. Thank you very much for your post.
Peace and best wishes. Xi On Mar 26, 5:41 pm, antidefm <[email protected]> wrote: > http://www.russiatoday.com/About_Us/Blogs/With_words_we_govern_men___... > > Most scholars have omitted economics in studies of war. However, > economics and war are inseparable. Most previous studies have looked > at the effects of war on economies of states. Today, when most > developed or developing states have settled down, domestic economies > and internal stability (by oppression or allowed freedoms) become top > priorities. So, why do states fight each other? There are those that > believe the cause to be simply the thirst for power, but some believe > that it is more complex. Nevertheless, neither have done analyses of > economies of states, and very few have gone as far as trying to > explain why some states initiate attacks on other states. > > Narrowing down the beginning of this path to determine the correlation > between economics and war, we first should look at economic stability. > States that feel they cannot sustain a war effort are unlikely to go > to war. But how would stability of an economy be measured? When > investors look at futures, options, bonds, and stock markets, they > often consider volatility of prices in order to see which commodity, > firm, or bond has the least volatility. That means that investors look > at entries that can provide them the most stability. This formula can > also be looked at to compare two states’ economies on the same level, > regardless of the size of the real GDP or its real growth. The > volatility formula is such: > > LOGSi = LOG(Pi / P(i-1)) > • LOG is the logarithmic function. > • Pi is the current price > • Pi-1 is the previous price > > ALOGS = Tlogs / n > • ALOGS is the average of the logarithms. > • Tlogs is the total of the logarithm for the time span. > • n is the number of periods for the specified time span. > > • SSD is the sum of the squared differences. > • indicates to add the squares of all n differences. > • LOGSi is the logarithm of the price change for period i. > • ALOGS is the average of the logarithms. > > • HV stands for Historic Volatility > • TP = Total Periods > > What I have done is to gather a list of interstate conflicts from > 1980-2003 (real GDP data is not completely available for the most > current period). I gathered real GDP data from 1970-2003 for all > states involved in the conflicts, broke them down according to > attacking and defending states (attacking states having initiated the > attack on the internationally recognized territory of the defending > state), and then ran the formula for each of the states taking into > account 5 years of real GDP data prior to the conflict. That is, if > the conflict initiated in 1980, I would need to look at the years > 1974-1979 for volatility. > > Here is the table that I came up with after running the stats. > > (click the original link to see the > table)http://www.russiatoday.com/About_Us/Blogs/With_words_we_govern_men___... > > This table shows us that when two states face off against one another, > the state with the higher real GDP volatility (that is, more unstable) > will most likely get attacked by its rival. This table does not > explain the reasons for the two nations going to war, but it is one of > the first explanations needed to support the theory presented in a > previous article that I wrote for RT titled Why Do We Go To War? > > It is necessary to look at the economies of both states involved in a > dispute because that will present a more clear picture of which state > is more likely to attack first, thus instigating an open conflict. > > To reiterate the theory being researched: > > A nation will be attacked if it has a weak economy compared to its > rival, a strong central ideology, and if it presents a threat to the > free flow of resources. --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
