If you keep me a secret I will be completely honest. But, please, do not tell anyone what you are reading below.
In countries that are suffering hard crisis, I tend to do not believe most statistics. Not because authorities lie, I like to trust on good will, but because behaviors change during crisis. I only believe on my common sense. I know that US economy is in the first phase of a U type crisis (although it is reaching the second phase). Therefore, I believe that its unemployment raises monthly more or less at the same pace month after month, about 650,000 people. But I do not believe the total amount. In the negative side, for example because some people appear as employee (while they are unemployed) just to improve their credit rates, others appear as self- employees while they have not monthly incomes, etc. In the possitive side, because some people start to work in black markets, sometimes just for food and bed, sometimes for very decent wages and salaries. While those marginal populations are a fraction in regular times, in crisis both sides grow fast. Also, I do not believe other rates such as GDP growth, CPI, and many others. For example, officially US GDP declined about 6%. I can believe any percentage between -2% and -20%, maybe it is -6%, maybe not. Nowadays, I think that subjective indicators show the real situation much more accurately. For example CCI (Consumer Confidence Index) because it is just a survey where regular people answer questions. I follow it closely and I post it here because of that among other reasons. Also, I trust on very low level indicators, such as Wall-Mart sales or opennings, etc. not agregated to other indicators. Also, at international level. I do not trust on WTO statistics about global trade, but I trust on the Baltic Dry Index because price of maritime transportation reflects accurately the relation between supply and demand (it includes black markets) for transnational trade. In some months, once global situation will be stable enough, probably my faith will recover. In US economy it will take a bit longer. You live there, you meet people, you talk to people, your opinion is much worthier than any agregated statistics. Thank you very much for that information. Peace and best wishes. Xi On Apr 4, 1:19 am, Mercury <[email protected]> wrote: > I wonder how much higher the unemployment numbers REALLY are > considering a lot of laid off workers are receiving severance pay and > are > uneligible to apply for unemployment until they use up that severance > pay. They for sure are not being counted. > > You can add my sister in law and my husband to the ones not being > counted. > > On Apr 3, 9:36 am, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > April 3rd., 2009 > > > Unemployment in U.S. Increases to 8.5%, 25-Year > > Highhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV3T3USSyJy0&refe... > > > April 3 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. unemployment rate climbed in March to > > the highest level since 1983 and the economy lost more than 650,000 > > jobs for a fourth consecutive month, a sign renewed reductions in > > spending might slow a recovery. > > > The jobless rate increased to 8.5 percent, as forecast, from 8.1 > > percent in February, the Labor Department said today in Washington. > > Employers cut 663,000 workers from staff, bringing total losses since > > the recession began to about 5.1 million, the biggest slump in the > > postwar era. > > > Evaporating jobs and declining pay mean President Barack Obama’s > > pledge to create or save 3.5 million jobs through tax cuts and > > government spending may fall short of what’s needed to revive the > > world’s largest economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has > > conceded joblessness could top 10 percent under a worst-case > > scenario. > > > “The labor market has gotten worse,” Conrad DeQuadros, senior > > economist at RDQ Economics LLC in New York, said before the report. > > “Weak labor-market conditions will result in consumer spending being > > weak throughout most of 2009.” > > > After the report, stock futures extended gains and the yield on 10- > > year Treasury notes rose. > > > The job cuts have been spreading from manufacturers such as Johnson > > Controls Inc. and Dana Holding Corp. to service providers like > > International Business Machines Corp. and even the U.S. Postal > > Service. > > > Revisions subtracted 86,000 workers from January payrolls while’s > > February’s drop of 651,000 was not revised. > > > November 1983 > > > The last time the unemployment rate was at 8.5 percent was in November > > 1983, when the economy was recovering from the 1981- 82 recession that > > pushed the rate to almost 11 percent. Then Fed Chairman Paul Volcker > > boosted interest rates to quell soaring inflation following the 1970s > > fuel crisis. > > > Payrolls were forecast to drop by 660,000, according to the median of > > 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from losses > > of 525,000 to 750,000. > > > Forecasts for the jobless rate ranged from 8.2 percent to 8.7 > > percent. > > > Today’s report showed factory payrolls fell by 161,000 after declining > > 169,000 in the prior month. Economists forecast a drop of 160,000. The > > decrease included a loss of 17,500 jobs in auto manufacturing and > > parts industries. > > > The manufacturing slump that began more than a year ago may intensify > > should General Motors Corp. be forced into bankruptcy, economists > > said. As many as 1 million additional auto-industry jobs may be lost > > and unemployment would climb to 11 percent, said Joseph LaVorgna, > > chief U.S. economist at Deutsche Bank Securities in New York. > > > Auto Industry > > > The auto slump has already rippled through the industry. Johnson > > Controls, a maker of car interiors and batteries, said last month it > > will shut 10 factories and cut about 4,000 jobs. Dana, the truck-axle > > manufacturer that exited bankruptcy in 2008, said it will boost its > > payroll reduction to 5,800 this year, 800 more than previously > > announced. > > > “We are taking the difficult actions necessary to survive,” Dana’s > > Chief Executive Officer John Devine said in a March 16 statement. > > > Service industries, which include banks, insurance companies, > > restaurants and retailers, cut 358,000 workers after a 366,000 decline > > in February. Financial firms cut payrolls by 43,000, after a 44,000 > > decrease the prior month. Retail payrolls decreased by 47,800 after a > > 50,800 drop. > > > Payrolls at builders fell 126,000 after decreasing 107,000, as home > > construction and sales remain weak. > > > Government payrolls decreased by 5,000 after a gain of 3,000 the prior > > month. > > > Postal Cuts > > > Among government job cuts that are still on the way, the Postal > > Service said March 20 it will close six offices and offer early > > retirement to about 150,000 workers in a bid to cut costs. > > > The population count that happens once every 10 years may limit the > > damage. The U.S. Census Bureau began hiring 140,000 temporary > > employees this month to start conducting the 2010 census. They are the > > first of more than 1.4 million people it will hire over the next year > > to poll the population. > > > For many Americans, this employment slump has been an unfamiliar > > experience. Sarah Opple, 42, was fired in February from a sales > > position at Gaylord Hotels in Chicago after holding a series of jobs > > in the hospitality industry since she was 17 years old. “It’s more > > real to me now,” she said in a March 26 interview. “This recession is > > way more tangible than the others. It makes everyone feel they could > > be next.” > > > Fewer Hours > > > Employers are also cutting back on hours. The average work week shrank > > to a record 33.2 hours in March from 33.3. Average weekly hours worked > > by production workers fell to 39.3 hours from 39.5 hours, while > > overtime was unchanged at 2.7 hours. That brought average weekly > > earnings down to $614.20 from $615.05. > > > Workers’ average hourly wages rose 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $18.50 > > from the prior month. Hourly earnings were 3.4 percent higher than > > March 2008. > > > Since taking office Jan. 20, Obama has enacted a series of measures > > aimed at stemming the recession. He signed into law a $787 billion > > stimulus plan on Feb. 17 that included spending on infrastructure > > projects to boost hiring. > > > The Treasury Department is also moving to repair the damaged financial > > system and lower record foreclosures, while the Fed is flooding > > markets with cash to boost borrowing and spending. > > > Bernanke last month said it was “certainly well within the realm of > > possibility” that unemployment nationwide could rise above 10 percent > > “for a period.” That’s the assumption being used in a worst-case > > scenario in tests to determine the health of the banking system, he > > said. > > > On Mar 6, 4:26 pm, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > My comment: I told some months ago that pace of destruction of work > > > was constant inUSeconomy, what means that it is into the first phase > > > of the crisis. Of course, it was true at that time. Unfortunately, > > > data from former months show that its pace rose one step to put itself > > > around 650,000 per month. As the article tells “There is not a single > > > sign that points to a bottom yet”. We are at the left side of the U > > > yet. > > > > On the other hand, global economy, in particular in Asia, are showing > > > early signs of recovery. IfUSeconomy opens itself (less > > > protectionism and more foreign investments) it could take advantage of > > > it. > > > > Peace and best wishes. > > > > Xi > > > > Unemployment inU.S.Surges to 8.1% as Payrolls > > > Slidehttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aesonW0og4.Y&refe... > > > > March 6 (Bloomberg) -- TheU.S.unemploymentratejumped in February > > > to 8.1 percent, the highest level in more than a quarter century, a > > > surge likely to send more Americans into bankruptcy and force further > > > cutbacks in consumer spending. > > > > Employers eliminated 651,000 jobs, the third straight month that > > > losses surpassed 600,000 -- the first time that’s happened since the > > > data began in 1939, Labor Department figures showed today in > > > Washington. Revisions for the prior two months lopped off an > > > additional 161,000 positions. > > > > Tumbling global demand is prompting companies from General Motors > > > Corp. to Sears Holdings Corp. to step up firings, perpetuating a cycle > > > of job losses and spending cuts. The Obama administration has set > > > aside immediate concerns about a budget gap and pushed through a $787 > > > billion stimulus plan aimed at creating or saving 3.5 million jobs. > > > > “There is not a single sign that points to a bottom yet,” Ellen > > > Zentner, a senior economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in > > > New York, said before the report. “It is the worst recession in the > > > postwar era.” > > > > Treasuries were little changed, while stock-index futures advanced. > > > Benchmark 10-year note yields were at 2.82 percent at 8:33 a.m. in New > > > York. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index rose 0.4 > > > percent to 688.60. > > > > Deeper Declines > > > > The payroll drop in January was revised up to 655,000 from 598,000 and > > > December now shows a 681,000 drop, up from the 577,000 previously > > > estimated. The December decline was the biggest since October 1949. > > > > TheU.S.economy has now lost almost 4.4 million jobs since the > > > recession began in December 2007, the biggest employment slump of any > > > economic downturn in the postwar period. > > > > Payrolls were forecast to drop by 650,000, according to the median of > > > 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Estimates ranged from losses > > > of 500,000 to 800,000. > > > > The joblessratewas projected to jump to 7.9 percent. Forecasts > > > ranged from 7.8 percent to 8.1 percent. > > > > Today’s report showed factory payrolls fell by 168,000 after declining > > > 257,000 in the prior month. Economists forecast a drop of 200,000. The > > > decrease included a loss of 25,300 jobs in producers of machinery and > > > 27,500 in makers of fabricated metal products. > > > > Carmakers > > ... > > read more »- Hide quoted text - > > - Show quoted text - --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
