My comment: I am starting to believe that either I do not understand China and some other developing and emerging countries or I do not understand the rest of the world, in particular some countries in the West. Not just about economy. Economy reflects society and culture and feeds it back. But this might be too deep for a message.
Although authorities show prudence in their comments -they must warn us on risks- China´s economy clearly bottomed in H1-2009 and as we told here in Q1-2009 and now shows moderate growth that in 2009 very probably will be around 7.5% in total, ranging from 7.1% up to 8.1% quarter by quarter. In 2010 very probably will be between 9% and 9.5%. In both cases leading global economic growth. Amid exports lose ground -and will lose more and more in the future- imports lost ground too. It produce record foreign reserves above $2 trillions. And even better news. Despite this flow of funds, price inflation is extremely low (negative in June too) what gives us the opportunity to keep on pushing growth. But we must be aware of the clouds in the horizon. Imported inflation will hurt us hard in the near future, to accelerate substitution of US dollar for Yuan in foreign trade could help us soften next crisis. And third good news. Retail sales grow and grow, now at a robust 15.0%. It means that this crisis is producing that population can enjoy higher standard of life. Excellent news: better in rural areas than in urban areas. Poor areas raise faster than wealthier areas, 16.1% vs. 14.4%. If we analyse by province, we will see that future growth hubs such as Yunnan and Shaanxi have a big share of resposibility in this success. One cloud. Urban fixed investments grew 33.5%. That is not bad news yet. But it will be in the near future as it will produce inflation in urban areas in particular in housing market. Maybe people should be cautious because a bubble could appear in the long term if this situation keeps pace. Okay. Statistics. GDP grew 7.1% from the same period a year ago in the first half. 7.9% in Q2 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/16/content_11716570.htm China's June CPI falls 1.7%, PPI down 7.8% http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/16/content_11717117.htm China's retail sales up 15% in first half http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/16/content_11716560.htm China urban fixed-asset investment up 33.5% in H1 http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/16/content_11716555.htm China's industrial output up 10.7% in June, back to double-digit growth http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/16/content_11716599.htm Premier Wen vows to keep sustainable, stable macroeconomic policy http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-07/10/content_11687829.htm Peace and best wishes. Xi --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
