My comment: Maybe just one among tens, in any case really important. Unfortunately in the direction we have projected several times, higher and higher inflation within six months to one year. To be more accurate, exactly when economies in third phase will be still fighting for reasonable growth amid economies in fourth phase or off-recession has dismantled stimulous and are suffering inflation.
Let us go fact by fact: 1) Eurozone growth to hit 0.7% in 2010 http://www.france24.com/en/node/4916402 Weak Dollar Won’t Hamper Europe’s Recovery: Chart of the Day http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aic.UTc_Rukg&pos=15 Europeans feel safe with a strong Euro and a weak UD dollar. 2) This is part of an agreement to fund the IMF, and, at the same time, to "diversify" foreign reserves (a.k.a. to get rid of some US dollars). It is not important by itself, but because gold market reacts up. “The fall in the U.S. dollar seems to be pushing all the central banks to strengthen their portfolio with gold,” said N.R. Bhanumurthy, professor at the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy in New Delhi. “Gold is a safe store of value compared to the U.S. dollar.” http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avU_tC42T8OA&pos=7 If this trends is confirmed within one or two weeks it means without any sort of doubt at all that central banks are expecting real high inflation in terms of US dollars. Despite what they might tell in press conferences. 3) As Roubini told today "Mother of all Carry Trades Faces an Inevitable Bust" http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/257912/mother_of_all_carry_trades_faces_an_inevitable_bust "the longer and bigger the carry trades and the larger the asset bubble, the bigger will be the ensuing asset bubble crash." I agree with that statement, although I disagree with his post. This carry trade is now reinforced by higher Aussie rates. Australia Increases Benchmark Interest Rate to 3.5% http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aPYYZfd9yGBA&pos=1 Conclusions: (And my main diasgreement with N. Roubini) You cannot break growth of an economy that has hardly bottomed recently and suffers 10% unemployment, homelessness, starvation, etc. it would produce a double dipp. But those economies in delay, such as US economy, have to cross a thin path while suffering crossfire. The best hope is just a comment, not a fact, probably launched to see how people reacts Locke Was ‘Imprecise’ in Comments on Second Stimulus http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aG8YOdEMfVRE&pos=1 Peace and best wishes, Xi --~--~---------~--~----~------------~-------~--~----~ You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en -~----------~----~----~----~------~----~------~--~---
