Very probably second half of 2010 will be worse than first half and worse than second half of 2009.
If not in second half of 2010, US economy will suffer in 2011H1 a second crash as it did in 2008H2. Prof. Krugman gives it 30% or 40% probability, I give above 90% probability because they do nothing to avoid it. Peace and best wishes. Xi On 24 ene, 00:00, "Sumerian.." <[email protected]> wrote: > Well I read that USA could be worse in 2010, and maybe its global effect. The > statement is logical: > 1- There are 200 banks in USA in the red zone. That include banks like City > Bank > 2- There are no more money to adjust like what happened to date. > > Regards > > ======= > S1000+ > ======= > > --- On Sat, 1/23/10, xi <[email protected]> wrote: > > From: xi <[email protected]> > Subject: Current status of global economy and hyperinflation risks in some > economies. > To: "World-thread" <[email protected]> > Date: Saturday, January 23, 2010, 2:00 PM > > My comment: > > Finally global economy as a whole has left crisis behind or, at least, > has crossed to its fourth phase. In that sense IMF is to rise growth > projection for 2010 above 3.1% previously projected, led by China and > India (former projections 9% and 6.4%) (1). Chinas growth is already > above 9% (2) and India above 6% (3). > > Also, perception at streets is quite optimistic. Consumer Confidence > Index shows in East Asia China 85.3 (4), in South Asia India 68.8 (5) > and in the Middle East Qatar an impressive 89.2 (6). > > This is the point where high risks start for economies that are behind > in the curve, most of them in third phase yet. > > High demand has made commodities to start its rise (7) and therefore > inflation becomes the main concern as prof. Huo Deming from Peking > University points out (8). Obviously, these economies cannot but to > dismantle their emergency plans and to do not add further stimulous > packs. Among those measures we can expect interest rates rise, bank > reserve rates rise, and, more important, currency apreciations (9). > > At this point is when hyperinflation, or at least high inflation, > might appear in economies that are behind. Let us see why. > > During crisis commodity production capacity has been downgraded to fit > crisis demand. But now, demand is higher than supply. If currencies in > economies ahead in the curve apreciate, purchase reaction in those > economies will not be to pay less for same amount of raw materials, > their reaction will be to acquire more raw materials to satisfy > expanding demand with same total price. If it happens, this will > produce scarcity in economies that are behind in the curve and > therefore, indirectly, imported inflation. The bad news is that those > economies have not means to control imported inflation. > > In my opinon, since now on and along next three or six months, US > householders should monitor relevant prices for our house budgets or > for our business. Even, to make graphs and charts to check easily > trends of most relevant goods and services. > > Some months ago, I described roughly economic behaviours during > hyperinflation (10). Hyperinflation is not a prediction (yet?). But, > again, to check rigorously whether it starts to happen or not is > crucial because the first ones to change their behaviour can take > advantage of it while the real troubles come for the middle and last > ones in the row. > > Peace and best wishes. > > Xi > > (1) IMF Raises 2010 Growth Forecast; Asia Leads > Recoveryhttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a7K52bQpLFRA > > (2) Video: China GDP growth hits 10.7% in Q4 > 2009http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfP0R7G1oGQ > > (3) Roaring India GDP Growth May Prompt Early Rate > Hikehttp://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20091130-704608.html > > (4)http://www.masterintelligence.com/ViewApprovedReport.jsp?hidReportTyp... > > (5)http://www.masterintelligence.com/ViewApprovedReport.jsp?hidReportTyp... > > (6)http://www.masterintelligence.com/ViewApprovedReport.jsp?hidReportTyp... > > (7) Video: China's demand for iron ore > soarshttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rdHhZGIoO20 > > (8) Video: Interview to Peking University prof. Huo > Deming.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHg4H3GCQ3M > > (9) Yuan 10% One-off Gain a ‘Good Strategy,’ Zhang > Sayshttp://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqZlJzuODsLM > > (10) Trend is accelerating. Americans, fasten your seatbelts. All the > rest, get ready to > jump.http://groups.google.es/group/abc_politics_forum/browse_thread/thread... > > -- > You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups > "World-thread" group. > To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. > To unsubscribe from this group, send email to > [email protected]. > For more options, visit this group > athttp://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en. -- You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "World-thread" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected]. To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected]. For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/world-thread?hl=en.
