Media, media, what is this nonsense now? Are they realy believing that this old apartheid tactic of divide and rule will work? Shame on you!
On 4/19/12, Trevor Kekana <[email protected]> wrote: > > > > > NOW that an almost final appeal has failed, what are former African > National Congress (ANC) Youth League president - and now former ANC > member - Julius Malema's options? If we go by history, he has three > possible paths, personified by three previous castaways: Bantu Holomisa, > Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and, of course, Jacob Zuma . > > The Winnie option would be to follow the example of one of his biggest > supporters and benefactors after she was ousted from the party's most > senior ranks; lie low and wait for a good moment to strike. Malema's > problem is that his position is too different from hers. First, she was > never totally ousted from the party, partly because she was considered a > fly in the ointment rather than a real threat. So Malema starts in a > different position to Madikizela-Mandela. > > It's also arguable whether Madikizela-Mandela's strategy really worked. > She aimed to get back at the ANC through proxies, people like, for > example, Malema. This creates a weird circularity if Malema were to try > and adopt her approach. Financially, they are also in different > positions. Madikizela-Mandela has always had an incentive to lie low > rather than fight big, because she has continued to draw a parliamentary > salary. Malema does not have that option, and presumably, his ability to > tenderpreneur disappears with his membership. He desperately needs not > only political backers but financial backers. > > The Zuma model would be to use the courts to keep himself in the > running. The advantage would be that by doing so he might prevent the > youth league from replacing him by claiming that the legal process has > not been exhausted. This is because, as we all know, you are innocent > until proven guilty, and you are not proven guilty until practically > every judge in the country has been canvassed on every point. > > The difference is that Zuma had unlimited funds for legal action because > taxpayers were paying, and so every decision could be challenged and > re-challenged. Malema will have to rely on his benefactors, who are > likely to disappear pretty fast, since they know what will happen to > them if they are discovered supporting Malema taking the ANC to court. > > Also, Malema's case is weak. His strongest legal argument is that the > decision of the ANC top structures to expel him offends natural justice > because they were both accuser and judge. Yet my colleagues tell me our > courts have consistently taken the position that so long as they are not > discriminating against any group, voluntary organisations have the right > to decide who their members should be. It might be worth a crack, but > just by going to court, Malema is racking up another count against him, > since the ANC has banned its members from taking the party to court. In > short, it's a bad option. It is also the one he has apparently chosen. > > The Holomisa model works this way: Malema gives up any hope of regaining > his position in the ANC, but he rallies his existing supporters into a > new party, called, say, "The Real ANC". This seems the most unlikely > eventuality, because his argument so far has been that he is a total ANC > devotee - even though the party is clearly not devoted to him. > > But it may be the most effective strategy. The latest opinion polls put > his support at about 17% of the population. Let's assume that this level > of support is reduced by half, because he will be stripped of the > positional status. That's still 1,8-million votes or about 35 seats in > the National Assembly. That would make him the leader of the > third-largest party in Parliament. He would have a healthy > parliamentarian's salary and could claim R10m a year from the > Represented Political Parties Fund. That won't buy many Breitling > watches, but it's not to be sneezed at. > > Of course, he would probably never get that many votes, with the ANC's > not inconsiderable guns pointed at him. Yet, who's to say? The ANC > itself is divided, pretty weak and poorly led at the moment. Malema has > a compelling political message, even if it would be destructive to the > economy. With that parliamentary power base, the ANC might even be > forced to take him back, lest it lose the aura of being the sole > legitimate representative of black South Africans. > > If Malema really is the young lion he claims, he should take the > Holomisa road. But is he? > > * Cohen is contributing editor > > NOW that an almost final appeal has failed, what are former African > National Congress (ANC) Youth League president - and now former ANC > member - Julius Malema's options? If we go by history, he has three > possible paths, personified by three previous castaways: Bantu Holomisa, > Winnie Madikizela-Mandela and, of course, Jacob Zuma . > > The Winnie option would be to follow the example of one of his biggest > supporters and benefactors after she was ousted from the party's most > senior ranks; lie low and wait for a good moment to strike. Malema's > problem is that his position is too different from hers. First, she was > never totally ousted from the party, partly because she was considered a > fly in the ointment rather than a real threat. So Malema starts in a > different position to Madikizela-Mandela. > > It's also arguable whether Madikizela-Mandela's strategy really worked. > She aimed to get back at the ANC through proxies, people like, for > example, Malema. This creates a weird circularity if Malema were to try > and adopt her approach. Financially, they are also in different > positions. Madikizela-Mandela has always had an incentive to lie low > rather than fight big, because she has continued to draw a parliamentary > salary. Malema does not have that option, and presumably, his ability to > tenderpreneur disappears with his membership. He desperately needs not > only political backers but financial backers. > > The Zuma model would be to use the courts to keep himself in the > running. The advantage would be that by doing so he might prevent the > youth league from replacing him by claiming that the legal process has > not been exhausted. This is because, as we all know, you are innocent > until proven guilty, and you are not proven guilty until practically > every judge in the country has been canvassed on every point. > > The difference is that Zuma had unlimited funds for legal action because > taxpayers were paying, and so every decision could be challenged and > re-challenged. Malema will have to rely on his benefactors, who are > likely to disappear pretty fast, since they know what will happen to > them if they are discovered supporting Malema taking the ANC to court. > > Also, Malema's case is weak. His strongest legal argument is that the > decision of the ANC top structures to expel him offends natural justice > because they were both accuser and judge. Yet my colleagues tell me our > courts have consistently taken the position that so long as they are not > discriminating against any group, voluntary organisations have the right > to decide who their members should be. It might be worth a crack, but > just by going to court, Malema is racking up another count against him, > since the ANC has banned its members from taking the party to court. In > short, it's a bad option. It is also the one he has apparently chosen. > > The Holomisa model works this way: Malema gives up any hope of regaining > his position in the ANC, but he rallies his existing supporters into a > new party, called, say, "The Real ANC". This seems the most unlikely > eventuality, because his argument so far has been that he is a total ANC > devotee - even though the party is clearly not devoted to him. > > But it may be the most effective strategy. The latest opinion polls put > his support at about 17% of the population. Let's assume that this level > of support is reduced by half, because he will be stripped of the > positional status. That's still 1,8-million votes or about 35 seats in > the National Assembly. That would make him the leader of the > third-largest party in Parliament. He would have a healthy > parliamentarian's salary and could claim R10m a year from the > Represented Political Parties Fund. That won't buy many Breitling > watches, but it's not to be sneezed at. > > Of course, he would probably never get that many votes, with the ANC's > not inconsiderable guns pointed at him. Yet, who's to say? The ANC > itself is divided, pretty weak and poorly led at the moment. Malema has > a compelling political message, even if it would be destructive to the > economy. With that parliamentary power base, the ANC might even be > forced to take him back, lest it lose the aura of being the sole > legitimate representative of black South Africans. > > If Malema really is the young lion he claims, he should take the > Holomisa road. But is he? > > * Cohen is contributing editor > > > http://www.investec.com/legal/email-disclaimer.html > > The disclaimer also provides our corporate information and names of our > directors as required by law. > > The disclaimer is deemed to form part of this message in terms of Section 11 > of the Electronic Communications and Transactions Act 25 of 2002. > If you cannot access the disclaimer, please obtain a copy thereof from us by > sending an email to: [email protected] > > -- > You are subscribed. This footer can help you. > Please POST your comments to [email protected] or reply to > this message. > You can visit the group WEB SITE at > http://groups.google.com/group/yclsa-eom-forum for different delivery > options, pages, files and membership. > To UNSUBSCRIBE, please email [email protected] . > You don't have to put anything in the "Subject:" field. You don't have to > put anything in the message part. 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