http://www.telegraphindia.com/1050228/asp/nation/story_4434473.asp
The fall of a colossus and the rise of a rainbow MAHESH RANGARAJAN Where Bihar goes next is unclear. But the verdict leaves little ambiguity on two counts. The era when Laloo Prasad Yadav strode the political landscape like a colossus is over. Not the old challenger, the National Democratic Alliance, but Ram Vilas Paswan and the Congress, his pocket edition of an ally, have struck where it hurts most. Together, the various allies that swept Bihar last May in the general elections still stand head and shoulders ahead of the Nitish-BJP alliance. The Janata Dal (United) has actually done far better than its saffron ally, but the inability to touch the baseline of 122 of 243 seats has made things far more difficult than its media-savvy campaign managers were ever willing to admit. The changes in the land of the Kosi and the Ganga are far more significant than a mere Assembly election would warrant. When Laloo Prasad first became chief minister 15 years ago, the whole mood and tenor of politics was different. Not only did he spearhead the Mandal revolution, he also became a prisoner of it. His championing of plural causes saw him take on Lal Krishna Advani in 1990 and the BJP-led alliance in the summer of 2004. He managed to wrest historic victories but became a victim of his own success. The very voters who had flocked to him now searched around for an alternative. Yet, the magnitude of the defeat is less shocking than that of several recent chief ministers. Chandrababu Naidu in 2004 and Digvijay Singh the previous year are names that spring to mind. Since 1977, no chief minister or party has dominated a north Indian state in the way he did. In fact, it was a unique blend of politics as cultural carnival and celebration of the lower-caste idiom that kept him in power. The high points were in the early 1990s. The arrest of Advani and the Mandal Commission led to huge victories in the general elections of 1991 and the next round of Assembly polls four years later. But the unified vote banks were breaking up, with the Kurmis under Nitish drifting away. Ironically, the NDA regime at the Centre for six years helped Laloo Prasad keep his flock together. Its eclipse last year left him reaching for a new rhetoric of development, an agenda he was unprepared to handle or conceive of in any serious long-term sense. In Laloo Prasad�s case, a superficial explanation for 2005 would almost entirely credit Paswan. The latter broke ranks last November and tirelessly criss-crossed the state, stitching together a putative alliance of not only Dalits and minorities but also of anyone else who wanted or yearned for change. The rise of Dalits to prominence has been such a cardinal feature in several Indian states that Bihar could not remain unaffected. But even this time, not Paswan alone but the Bahujan Samaj Party and the CPI (MLL) too have chipped away at the social base of Laloo Prasad�s Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD). But the mood shift has had much more to do with the ability of the Congress to recapture the trust, confidence and goodwill, though not as yet the votes, of minorities. Ditto for the upper castes who found the BJP and its allies make little headway over all these years. It was the umbrella of the Congress, now leading a government in Delhi, that emboldened Paswan to move ahead. This strategy has paid off, though the Congress�s own tally of seats is disappointing. It�s tally is worse than the 12 MLAs it had in the previous House. But the message is clear. In the only large Hindi-belt state where the United Progressive Alliance had bested the NDA in the Lok Sabha polls, the old party has taken on an ally. It did so carefully, perhaps too carefully. It did not, for instance, put a single candidate against a sitting RJD legislator. Nor did Laloo Prasad take on the Congress where it had won the last time. But the Congress�s local ally is left holding the cards in his hands. As in neighbouring Uttar Pradesh, the political picture has changed beyond recognition in just three weeks of voting. A third force that is neither with the BJP nor with the dominant Mandal caste-led bloc has been created. Its lineaments are clear, and its future is uncertain. The idea, clearly enough, is to ride piggyback on the Paswan bandwagon. The first step would be to block a new government led by Rabri Devi, Laloo Prasad or any other member of their kinship group or party. This may not be easy, given that the RJD will be the largest party outside the BJP fold. But the Damocles sword of President�s rule is being held over the state to nudge Laloo Prasad to get into the nitty-gritty of deal-making. How far he can go is still unclear. Paswan is not a mere claimant for power, he seeks to redefine the equations themselves and in a way that will leave little room for the kind of social coalition Laloo Prasad has held together for so long. The new rainbow will have a different complexion and leadership, and the Congress will give it an umbrella to grow. The only loser in the bargain would be the RJD. The inability and the limited appeal for the NDA among the voters stand out. It has been unable to cash in on the rift in the rival camp. Initial figures suggest a fall of about 5-6 per cent in its share of the popular vote from the 31 per cent it polled five years ago. Paswan�s new party has gained about 4 per cent. It is clear it has denied Laloo Prasad victory in far more seats than those where it has won. The two national parties, the Congress and the BJP, have found their respective allies make the really big gains. If the attempt of the Congress was to use Paswan to regain a foothold, that can hardly be said to have succeeded. For the BJP, the election is another instance of how caste can dilute, defeat and undermine its ideological appeal for all-in Hindu unity. What this bodes for the wider polity is unclear. Laloo Prasad has been halted in his fourth successive bid for power. But there is no clear winner. The premier Opposition alliance has not made the gains it had hoped for. Paswan and the Congress seem unsure of how to take the next step and craft an alternative government. They can neither digest Laloo Prasad nor ignore him. The danger in all this is that Bihar may well be going the Uttar Pradesh way. Since 1989, only once has the country�s most populous state given a clear majority to any one party. Bihar had marched to the beat of a different drum. Suddenly, the drummer has fallen silent. As new equations form, the state drifts into an era of political instability. An uncertain future for Bihar�s new government will have reverberations for all of India. But the voters have left little doubt that they do not trust any one combination to preside over their destiny. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> Give the gift of life to a sick child. Support St. Jude Children's Research Hospital's 'Thanks & Giving.' http://us.click.yahoo.com/lGEjbB/6WnJAA/E2hLAA/1dTolB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> �������������������������������������������������������� This is ZESTCaste whose members watch India's painful journey to society's de-casteisation. Members are encouraged to post messages to [email protected] If you got this mail as a forward, subscribe to ZESTCaste by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] OR, if you have a Yahoo! ID, by visiting http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTCaste/join Get all ZESTCaste mails sent out in a span of 24 hours in a single mail. 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