http://www.tehelka.com/story_main40.asp?filename=Ne181008keepit_onsimmer.asp
>From Tehelka Magazine, Vol 5, Issue 41, Dated Oct 18, 2008 CURRENT AFFAIRS alliances Keep It On Simmer VIJAY SIMHA takes a look at what's cooking between the Left and the BSP FOR A few days in mid-September, room number 401 in the private ward of the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, became an unlikely hub for politics. CPI General Secretary AB Bardhan lay there, recuperating from a gall bladder operation. TDP President Chandrababu Naidu was one of the several visitors who met Bardhan in the room, but interest was on a planned meeting between Bardhan, CPM General Secretary Prakash Karat and Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Mayawati. Bardhan had spoken of Mayawati's potential as a prime minister in the run-up to the July 22 vote of confidence in Parliament on the Indo-US nuclear agreement. That statement triggered a new alignment in Indian politics, between the Left and the BSP. The meeting in AIIMS was to give shape to a possible Left-BSP alternative to the blocs led by the Congress and the BJP. Typically, Mayawati couldn't make it for the meeting. Karat didn't come because he was informed that Mayawati wouldn't be there. Instead, after a few days, CPM Politburo member Sitaram Yechury, CPI National Secretariat member D Raja and BSP General Secretary Satish Chandra Misra met. They agreed that the Left and the BSP would most likely not have an understanding in the elections to the assemblies of Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Jammu and Kashmir, and Mizoram. The elections will possibly be held in November, and the Left and the BSP agreed that neither had a big stake in these states. The BSP representative suggested that his party would like to contest all the seats in Madhya Pradesh and Delhi. The Left did not object. There were more meetings between representatives of the Left and the BSP, in which Mayawati sent word that the focus should be on projecting an alternative to the Congress and the BJP, and not on seat sharing, an issue likely to generate bitterness. The Left had done some work on seat sharing, but they agreed with Mayawati. "There is nothing tangible yet," said CPM Politburo member Sitaram Yechury. So, after three months, the Left and the BSP are left with five issues on which they would conduct a joint nation-wide campaign. The campaign would be on the risks of the nuclear deal with the US, the dangers of communalism, price rise and the problems in the Public Distribution System, the crisis in the agrarian sector, and the alleged misuse of the Central Bureau of Investigation by the Centre. The Left and the BSP began getting close on these five issues in July. That they are still discussing it would suggest that not much forward movement has taken place. That could be deceptive. While the Left and the BSP have not progressed on some fronts, spadework has been done on how they may go about the next general election. Seniors from both sides have worked on electoral details, for instance, in some states. In Uttar Pradesh, a key state, the Left expects the BSP to do well in 50 of the 80 Lok Sabha constituencies. The Left hopes that a combination of dalit, brahmin, and Muslim votes would help their understanding with the BSP. The Left is working on two seats for themselves in Uttar Pradesh: Atul Anjan of the CPI from Ghosi, and Suhasini Ali of the CPM from either Kanpur or Ghazipur. Should things work out, with Mayawati's backing, Anjan and Ali would be the faces of the Left in the Hindi belt. If Ajit Singh's Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) stays with the BSP and the Left, there could be three more seats on their side, they hope. So, current calculations expect a Left-BSP-RLD combo to net close to 55 seats from Uttar Pradesh. Ajit Singh, however, likes to keep his options open. Indications are that he may consider going with the Congress and the Samajwadi Party, or the BJP, as well. The Left and the BSP expect Mayawati to be able to land a parliamentary seat each in Bihar and Maharashtra, where they are working on consolidating the dalit vote on the premise that Mayawati, a dalit, could be prime minister. The Left hopes that they can do well in two seats in Bihar — the CPI in Begusarai and the CPM in Bhagalpur. Three forces could be in the fray in Bihar: the Left-BSP, the Janata Dal (United)-BJP, and the Congress- Lalu-Paswan combinations. The JD(U)-BJP bloc has the edge right now. In Maharashtra, which has 48 Lok Sabha constituencies, Mayawati hopes to take a sizeable chunk of the dalit vote on the premise that she has a shot at being the prime minister. The BSP and the Left are expecting to be a factor in Mumbai, Nanded, Nashik, Nagpur, and Amravati. In Tamil Nadu, there is a possibility that the Left and the BSP could go with Jayalalitha's AIADMK, the PMK and the MDMK led by Vaiko. They expect to contest the Congress-DMK alliance. The Left and the BSP assessment is that they will gain at the expense of the DMK. In Andhra Pradesh, an interesting confluence is taking place in Hyderabad. The Majlis-e-ittehadul Muslimeen (MIM) has represented the Hyderabad Lok Sabha constituency for several years, and the Left, the Congress and even the BJP are willing to work together to get the MIM out. The CPM and the CPI have been working in Hyderabad for many months under non-political platforms to enable non-Left forces to come on board. The CPI platform is called Insaf and the CPM has Awaaz. The plan is to have an Independent candidate, most likely an influential member of the Urdu media, who will be supported by major parties. Alliances for the rest of Andhra Pradesh haven't been worked out yet, especially with the entry of Chiranjeevi's Praja Rajyam party. In Karnataka, former prime minister HD Devegowda's Janata Dal (Secular) is expected to lead the alliance. The problems for the Left are there in West Bengal and Kerala. The Left Front could lose up to 20 seats in these states from their current tally because of Nandigram and Singur in West Bengal, and a host of factors including faction fights in Kerala. That could dent the best of plans. "We will have to work these things out. In elections, it is a question of sorting out different issues and agreeing on seat sharing. At the moment there is some agreement to strive for forging a united alternative to the Congress and the BJP," said D Raja, of the CPI. IN INDIA, parties come together in largely five forms. An 'alliance' is the highest form, where the parties have an agreed political and policy programme. For instance, the UPA is an alliance. Then there is a 'front', where the coming together is not as formal as in an alliance. Parties can have separate programmes. For instance, the third front, etc. A 'front' can be formed postelection, unlike an 'alliance' which is announced before an election. There is also what is called an 'adjustment', where parties agree on the constituencies they will contest. This could be limited to one state, or even portions of a state. At a lower level is an 'understanding'. This is an informal seatwise agreement. This is casual in nature, and often not announced. And, there is an 'alternative'. This, when spoken of by the Left, takes a high form, even higher than an 'alliance' in that it includes policy framework and political understanding in the long term. But when spoken of by non-Left parties, an 'alternative' could simply mean a different political choice. At the moment, the Left and the BSP are seeking an 'alternative', but will most likely end up with 'adjustments' and 'understandings' for the November round of election to six states. What happens afterward is open to several influences. WRITER'S EMAIL: [EMAIL PROTECTED] >From Tehelka Magazine, Vol 5, Issue 41, Dated Oct 18, 2008 ------------------------------------ ---- INFORMATION OVERLOAD? Get all ZESTCaste mails sent out in a span of 24 hours in a single mail. Subscribe to the daily digest version by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED], OR, if you have a Yahoo! Id, change your settings at http://groups.yahoo.com/group/ZESTMedia/join/ PARTICIPATE:- On this list you can share caste news, discuss caste issues and network with like-minded anti-caste people from across India and the world. Just write to [email protected] TELL FRIENDS TO SIGN UP:- If you got this mail as a forward, subscribe to ZESTCaste by sending a blank mail to [EMAIL PROTECTED] OR, if you have a Yahoo! 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