Will we go to war over Taiwan? By Robert Aysen The Age |August 21, 2004 http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/08/20/1092972745279.html?from=storylhs&oneclick=true (Robert Ayson is a fellow of the strategic and defence studies centre at the ANU.) Australia may not want to go to war with China, but it could get dragged in by the US, writes Robert Ayson. Alexander Downer left for North Asia this week overselling Australia's potential influence in the diplomatic game over North Korea's nuclear weapons program. Any slim chance he might have had of making a significant impact on Pyongyang's policy would not have been helped by the breathtaking claim that Sydney was within reach of North Korea's missiles. But the prospects for an Australian-initiated breakthrough with the region's rogue state were not that good anyway. Kim Jong-il's regime has been dragging its feet on multinational talks as it awaits the November presidential elections in the United States and the chances of a new American administration to hoodwink. While the hype before the trip suggested that the North Korean issue was the main game, the Foreign Minister's statements in Beijing show that the real issue is Australia's relationship with a re-emerging China. Downer's comments on the limited prospects of Australian assistance to the US in the event of a Chinese attack on Taiwan are among the most significant words uttered by the Howard Government on foreign policy. Advertisement Advertisement Particularly noteworthy is what Downer said about the relevance (or irrelevance) of the ANZUS Treaty for Australia's policy in the event of a serious China-Taiwan crisis. He suggested ANZUS only generates obligations for Australia and the US should either country be attacked. Hence, should Taiwan be attacked by China and should America also get drawn into the fray, Australia would not be obliged under ANZUS to consult with its leading ally and, potentially, come to its assistance. But ANZUS can be read in different ways, as the US State Department's reaction shows. The treaty indicates that ANZUS comes into play when the armed forces of either side are attacked in the "Pacific area", a part of the world that would seem to include Taiwan. It needs to be remembered that Australia and New Zealand sought ANZUS out of fears that Japan might remilitarise. The treaty also represented American appreciation for Anzac assistance in the Korean War. With this North Asian context in mind, any letter of the ANZUS law does not necessarily excuse Australia from engagement in a China-Taiwan crisis involving the US. Even more significant was Downer's acknowledgement that ANZUS should be treated as "symbolic". That this is the case can be seen in the only time that the treaty has been invoked - not by the world's leading power to come to the aid of its Australian ally but by the Howard Government to support US action in Afghanistan in response to the September 11 terrorist attacks on US soil. Australia's commitment in Afghanistan could have - and would have - been made with or without ANZUS. But the invocation of the 50-year-old treaty was a nice (symbolic) touch. Downer's liberal rather than literal treatment of the treaty may not give Australia all the wriggle room it wants. Australia's alliance with the US, and the moral (if not legal) obligations that accompany it, go far beyond ANZUS. The Bush Administration has even implied that the free trade agreement is part of the alliance. Washington is unlikely to rely solely on the bargaining power from the words of the treaty in seeking and expecting Australia's support in a Taiwan Straits crisis. Indeed, the Howard Government's heavy emphasis on its loyalty to the world's sole superpower may have helped generate such broader non-legal obligations. All of this means that for Canberra much still depends on how Washington responds to any major cross-straits challenge. Early on, the Bush Administration indicated strong support for Taiwan, but more recently Chen Shui-bian's Government has been warned by its most important friend that it cannot expect support should it be responsible for provoking a Chinese reaction. This is a tune that Canberra likes. But can we expect the big challenge in the strait to be this clear cut? Isn't it more likely to be a case where the blame is shared between China and Taiwan, and that the US feels unable to abandon one of the region's most democratic countries? And if the US gets dragged in, it is bound to want Australia's assistance. Downer's stance certainly reminds Taiwan that any support it may have anticipated is, at the very least, highly conditional on its own responsible behaviour. The implication that Taiwan is seen as most likely to rock the boat is music to Beijing's ears. The Australian Foreign Minister's important words may reduce the chances of Australian involvement in at least certain circumstances. But as crises are by their nature often unpredictable, Downer's comments are unlikely to remove those chances entirely. ------------------------ Yahoo! Groups Sponsor --------------------~--> What would our lives be like without music, dance, and theater? Donate or volunteer in the arts today at Network for Good! http://us.click.yahoo.com/pkgkPB/SOnJAA/Zx0JAA/uTGrlB/TM --------------------------------------------------------------------~-> �������������������������������������������������������� This is ZESTGlobal. 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