The value of AGI is the human labor it replaces, which is worth US $2 to $5 quadrillion over the next 30 years. A major conceptual difficulty seems to be that we can solve the problem for just $1 million or $1 billion or $1 trillion. Sorry, no. That doesn't mean it won't be solved. It just means you aren't going to be the one to solve it.
A common argument is that if we can build one human brain and educate it, then we can make billions of copies very cheaply. Sorry, it doesn't work that way. People form organizations to solve problems that they cannot solve individually. Within an organization, people have specialized tasks because it is more efficient than if everyone had the same knowledge. This requires training and on-the-job learning customized to each member. General intelligences are going to have to compete with organizations of specialized systems, each of which is optimized for a narrow task. Moore's Law doesn't apply to software and training. The good news is that AGI will arrive even if you don't do anything. The value of AGI is just too high to stop it. The internet is getting smarter under your nose, whether you notice it or not. People today just expect Google to answer natural language questions, or to recognize an address and show you a satellite map. People forget 15 years ago when they had to use Archie and the only way to find something was to know the name of the file. -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: http://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: http://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=101455710-f059c4 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
