--- On Mon, 9/8/08, Steve Richfield <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: On 9/7/08, Matt Mahoney <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
>>The fact is that thousands of very intelligent people have been trying >>to solve AI for the last 50 years, and most of them shared your optimism. >Unfortunately, their positions as students and professors at various >universities have forced almost all of them into politically correct >paths, substantially all of which lead nowhere, for otherwise they would >have succeeded long ago. The few mavericks who aren't stuck in a >university (like those on this forum) all lack funding. Google is actively pursuing AI and has money to spend. If you have seen some of their talks, you know they are pursuing some basic and novel research. >>Perhaps it would be more fruitful to estimate the cost of automating the >>global economy. I explained my estimate of 10^25 bits of memory, 10^26 >>OPS, 10^17 bits of software and 10^15 dollars. You want to replicate the work currently done by 10^10 human brains. A brain has 10^15 synapses. A neuron axon has an information rate of 10 bits per second. As I said, you can argue about these numbers but it doesn't matter much. An order of magnitude error only changes the time to AGI by a few years at the current rate of Moore's Law. Software is not subject to Moore's Law so its cost will eventually dominate. A human brain has about 10^9 bits of knowledge, of which probably 10^7 to 10^8 bits are unique to each individual. That makes 10^17 to 10^18 bits that have to be extracted from human brains and communicated to the AGI. This could be done in code or formal language, although most of it will probably be done in natural language once this capability is developed. Since we don't know which parts of our knowledge is shared, the most practical approach is to dump all of it and let the AGI remove the redundancies. This will require a substantial fraction of each person's life time, so it has to be done in non obtrusive ways, such as recording all of your email and conversations (which, of course, all the major free services already do). The cost estimate of $10^15 comes by estimating the world GDP ($66 trillion per year in 2006, increasing 5% annually) from now until we have the hardware to support AGI. We have the option to have AGI sooner by paying more. Simple economics suggests we will pay up to what it is worth. -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=111637683-c8fa51 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
