--- On Tue, 10/14/08, Terren Suydam <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > --- On Tue, 10/14/08, Matt Mahoney > <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > An AI that is twice as smart as a > > human can make no more progress than 2 humans. > > Spoken like someone who has never worked with engineers. A > genius engineer can outproduce 20 ordinary engineers in the > same timeframe. > > Do you really believe the relationship between intelligence > and output is linear?
You are right, it is not, but that does not detract from my main point. Two brains have twice as much storage capacity, processing power, and I/O as one brain. They have less than twice as much knowledge because some of it is shared. They can do less than twice as much work because the brain has a fixed rate of long term learning (2 bits per second), and a portion of that must be devoted to communicating with the other brain. The intelligence of 2 brains is between 1 and 2 depending on the degree to which the intelligence test can be parallelized. The degree of parallelization is generally higher for humans than it is for dogs because humans can communicate more efficiently. Ants and bees communicate to some extent, so we observe that a colony is more intelligent (at finding food) than any individual. I have said many times that humans cannot test for higher than human intelligence. Here is proof. We know from experiments that groups of humans make better predictions (by voting) than individuals. However, if individuals recognized that the group was smarter, then they would never disagree with it. But if they never disagreed, then the group would not be smarter. With regard to RSI, we now have a global economy of 10^10 brains, which I estimate is about 10^8 times smarter (and growing) than any individual. It is less than 10^10 because of less than optimal organization. I estimate the inefficiency based on the cost of replacing an employee in lost productivity. So even an AGI that is 1000 times smarter than a human would only have the impact of adding a few thousand more people, whether you measure intelligence by instructions per second, memory, I/O bandwidth, or bits of knowledge. I think Ben could see just how much their team depends on the (unrecognized) intelligence of the global brain if they imagined going back 100 years in time and asking how much progress they would be making toward AGI then? -- Matt Mahoney, [EMAIL PROTECTED] ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=117534816-b15a34 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
