The (stock) market might, at least as a matter of initial heuristics, be assumed to be "efficient." But only insofar as _risk_ is concerned.
One can imagine, that is, that the price of a share of GM not only "has in mind" all the known data about GM -- including what to make of all the highly-indefinite "data" which the Enron saga reminds us may not be entirely transparent -- but also provides the "correct" assessment of the likelihood of all those things which matter in pricing a stock, that is, what the stock (or, if you insist on being Buffett, the company) will be "worth" tomorrow (which contemplates what it will be "worth" the day after, ad inf.). But you can do that only if you've never heard of uncertainty (Knight, of course, and for the exotics among us, Shackle and Lachmann). And especially never, if you've heard of entrepreneurs -- not just the alert entrepreneurs of Kirzner, but the _creative_ entrepreneurs who do all that creative destruction, who think of possibilities which do not _exist_ until they are thought of. And those entrepreneurs are not just in business, of course. Some of them do post-graduate work in, among other places, the mountain caves of Afghanistan. Michael Michael E. Etchison Texas Wholesale Power Report MLE Consulting www.mleconsulting.com 1423 Jackson Road Kerrville, TX 78028 830) 895-4005
