"do they have positive or negative correlation?" intriguing question, Petri. Intuitively, we might arbitrarily divide the human population into two groups; one which is discouraged by failure, and the other which takes the Lady MacBeth attitude of "screw your courage to the sticking point, and we'll not fail !" Again, intuitively, we might expect the two groups to be roughly equal in size, whereupon it follows that a series of results involving randomly chosen players would not be markedly different from statistical independence.
these intuitions are corroborated by one experimental study i came across with Google Scholar's help: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1198/016214501753168217 On 30/03/2016, Petri Pitkanen <petri.t.pitka...@gmail.com> wrote: > Since there are only two possible outcomes it pretty much normal. Actually > binomial which will converge to normal given enough samples > > Only thing that cans distort is that consecutive games are not > independent (which > is probably the case but do they have positive or negative correlation?) > > 2016-03-30 13:06 GMT+03:00 Рождественский Дмитрий <divx4...@yandex.ru>: > >> I think the error here is that the game outcome is not a normaly >> distributed random value. >> >> Dmitry >> >> 30.03.2016, 12:57, "djhbrown ." <djhbr...@gmail.com>: >> > Simon wrote: "I was discussing the results with a colleague outside >> > of the Game AI area the other day when he raised >> > the question (which applies to nearly all sporting events, >> > given the small sample size involved) >> > of statistical significance - suggesting that on another week >> > the result might have been 4-1 to Lee Sedol." >> > >> > call me naive, but perhaps you could ask your colleague to calculate >> > the probability one of side winning 4 games out of 5, and then say >> > whether that is within 2 standard deviations of the norm. >> > >> > his suggestion is complete nonsense, regardless of the small sample >> > size. perhaps you could ask a statistician next time. >> > >> > -- >> > patient: "whenever i open my mouth, i get a shooting pain in my foot" >> > doctor: "fire!" >> > http://sites.google.com/site/djhbrown2/home >> > https://www.youtube.com/user/djhbrown >> > _______________________________________________ >> > Computer-go mailing list >> > Computer-go@computer-go.org >> > http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go >> _______________________________________________ >> Computer-go mailing list >> Computer-go@computer-go.org >> http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go >> > -- patient: "whenever i open my mouth, i get a shooting pain in my foot" doctor: "fire!" http://sites.google.com/site/djhbrown2/home https://www.youtube.com/user/djhbrown _______________________________________________ Computer-go mailing list Computer-go@computer-go.org http://computer-go.org/mailman/listinfo/computer-go
