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Appendix B

Copies of NSAMs 263 and 273,
and Some Primary Supporting Documents




Contained herein are copies of National Security Action Memorandum Number 263
(10/11/63), Number 273 (11/26/63), and some of their primary supporting
documents. These representations are taken from Foreign Relations of the
United States, Volume IV, Vietnam August-December 1963 (Dept. of State
Publication 9857), published in 1991 by the U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402.
Fletcher describes his participation as one of General Krulak's principal
writers for the text that became NSAM 263 beginning on page 70, JFK Prepares
To Get Out Of Vietnam: The Taylor/McNamara Trip Report of October 1963 and
NSAM 263. As explained in the first paragraph of the Preface of FRUS, vol IV:
The publication Foreign Relations of the United States constitutes the
official record of the foreign policy of the United States. The volumes in
the series include, subject to necessary security considerations, all
documents needed to give a comprehensive record of the major foreign policy
decisions of the United States together with appropriate materials concerning
the facts that contributed to the formulation of policies.
In early 1992, after learning about the existence of this new publication
from Fletcher, I obtained a copy and studied portions of it. We were
discussing the prevalence of journalists and university professors who
themselves are not acquainted with such historically precise information.
Fletcher summed up the situation in this way:
I was doing a TV show to Australia, live, night before last. And there was a
man from Los Angeles talking about the subject [JFK and Vietnam], and, my
word he hadn't even read this book. At the end of the show the man from
Australia -- the host of the show -- asked me, "What do think is going to be
the value of opening the files with respect to the Kennedy murder?" I
replied, "I can't see it being worth a darn. Here we are listening to people
who haven't even cracked the books that are opened, and if they have, they
don't understand what's in them. I don't see that this will make a damn bit
of difference. If people aren't going to read books that are available, why
talk about reading books that aren't available?"
This is the key to this subject. If people don't read material like this --
where one can see that 263 is completely spelled out. All of the meetings
that were held -- there were over 50 meetings held before NSAM 263 was
published. And here are these uninformed people that are professors in
college, important writers in big magazines, and they haven't even read this
primary source material.
Signed by President Johnson four days after President Kennedy's murder, NSAM
273 was extraordinarily significant given the fact that for the first time
the stated goal of the U.S. was altered to be that of helping the South
Vietnamese government win the war:
It remains the central object of the United States in South Vietnam to assist
the people and Government of that country to win their contest against the
externally directed and supported Communist conspiracy.
This sort of wording was something President Kennedy had steadfastly vetoed
when it had been proposed by some of his military advisors a number of times
in the past. Thus NSAM 273 explicitly delineated the beginning of the
reversal of JFK's policy that had begun to take explicit shape with the
signing of NSAM 263. This despite the fact that one of LBJ's most common
phrases after the assassination and during his 1964 campaign was "let us
continue." This breach was further obfuscated by such statements as "It remain
s the central object of the United States in South Vietnam . . . " Such
declarations indicated the discontinuity with events that were unfolding and
being directed by President Kennedy prior to November 22, 1963.
For anyone interested in learning about the historical background and context
for such affairs of state, these FRUS volumes are indispensable.
The following is an outline of the documents included in this Appendix. Each
is listed by the number they appear as in the Foreign Relations of the United
States, Volume IV, Vietnam August-December 1963:
194.   National Security Action Memorandum No. 263
This recorded JFK's approval of withdrawing 1,000 U.S. military personnel by
the end of 1963, as well as other recommendations from the Taylor/McNamara
Memo (doc. 167) which included withdrawal of "the bulk of U.S. personnel by .
. . the end of 1965."
167.   Memorandum From the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
          (Taylor) and the Secretary of Defense (McNamara) to the President
NSAM 263 approves Section IB(1-3) of this Memorandum created as a result of
the Taylor/McNamara trip to South Vietnam in late September-beginning of
October.
169.   Summary Record of the 519th Meeting of the National Security
          Council, White House, Washington, October 2, 1963, 6 p.m.
More background on the policy decision made in light of the Taylor/McNamara
Report (doc. 167) presented to JFK earlier in the day.
170.   Record of Action No. 2472, Taken at the 519th Meeting of the
          National Security Council, Washington, October 2, 1963
NSC confirmation of the endorsements made by JFK of the Taylor/ McNamara
Report.
179.   Memorandum for the Files of a Conference With the President,
          White House, Washington, October 5, 1963, 9:30 a.m.
NSAM 263 directly refers to this Memorandum.
181.   Telegram From the Department of State to the Embassy in Vietnam
NSAM 263 directly refers to this Telegram.
331.   National Security Action Memorandum No. 273
This 11/26/63 NSAM initiated LBJ's reversal of the plans JFK had been
implementing for the U.S. withdrawal from Vietnam.
321.   Memorandum of Discussion at the Special Meeting on Vietnam,
          Honolulu, November 20, 1963
NSAM 273 is purported to have grown out of the discussion that took place in
Honolulu on 11/20/63 with the majority of the Kennedy cabinet in attendance.



------------------------------------------------------------------------



NSAM No. 263

194.   National Security Action Memorandum No. 263 [1]



Washington, October 11, 1963.
TO

Secretary of State
Secretary of Defense
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
SUBJECT

South Vietnam

          At a meeting on October 5, 1963,[2] the President considered the
recommendations contained in the report of Secretary McNamara and General
Taylor on their mission to South Vietnam.
          The President approved the military recommendations contained in
Section I B (1-3) of the report, but directed that no formal announcement be
made of the implementation of plans to withdraw 1,000 U.S. military personnel
by the end of 1963.
          After discussion of the remaining recommendations of the report,
the President approved an instruction to Ambassador Lodge which is set forth
in State Department telegram No. 534 to Saigon.[3]

McGeorge Bundy



------------------------------------------------------------------------


1.  Source: Department of State, S/S-NSC Files: Lot 72 D 316, NSAMs. Top
Secret; Eyes Only. The Director of Central Intelligence and the Administrator
of AID also received copies. Also printed in United States-Vietnam Relations,
1945-1967, Book 12, p. 578.

2.  See Document 179.

3.  Document 181.










------------------------------------------------------------------------



------------------------------------------------------------------------


167.   Memorandum From the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff
         (Taylor) and the Secretary of Defense (McNamara) to
         the President  [1]
Washington, October 2, 1963.
SUBJECT

Report of McNamara-Taylor Mission to South Vietnam
          Your memorandum of 21 September 1963 [2] directed that General
Taylor and Secretary McNamara proceed to South Vietnam to appraise the
military and para-military effort to defeat the Viet Cong and to consider, in
consultation with Ambassador Lodge, related political and social questions.
You further directed that, if the prognosis in our judgment was not hopeful,
we should present our views of what action must be taken by the South Vietnam
Government and what steps our Government should take to lead the Vietnamese
to that action.
          Accompanied by representatives of the State Department, CIA, and
your Staff, we have conducted an intensive program of visits to key
operational areas, supplemented by discussions with U.S. officials in all
major U.S. Agencies as well as officials of the GVN and third countries.
          We have also discussed our findings in detail with Ambassador
Lodge, and with General Harkins and Admiral Felt.
          The following report is concurred in by the Staff Members of the
mission as individuals, subject to the exceptions noted.
I. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
A. Conclusions.
          1. The military campaign has made great progress and continues to
progress.
          2. There are serious political tensions in Saigon (and perhaps
elsewhere in South Vietnam) where the Diem-Nhu government is becoming
increasingly unpopular.
          3. There is no solid evidence of the possibility of a successful
coup, although assassination of Diem or Nhu is always a possibility.
          4. Although some, and perhaps an increasing number, of GVN military
officers are becoming hostile to the government, they are more hostile to the
Viet Cong than to the government and at least for the near future they will
continue to perform their military duties.
          5. Further repressive actions by Diem and Nhu could change the
present favorable military trends. On the other hand, a return to more
moderate methods of control and administration, unlikely though it may be,
would substantially mitigate the political crisis.
          6. It is not clear that pressures exerted by the U.S. will move Diem
 and Nhu toward moderation. Indeed, pressures may increase their obduracy.
But unless such pressures are exerted, they are almost certain to continue
past patterns of behavior.
B. Recommendations.
          We recommend that:
          1. General Harkins review with Diem the military changes necessary
to complete the military campaign in the Northern and Central areas (I, II,
and III Corps) by the end of 1964, and in the Delta (IV Corps) by the end of
1965. This review would consider the need for such changes as:
          a. A further shift of military emphasis and strength to the Delta
(IV Corps).
          b. An increase in the military tempo in all corps areas, so that
all combat troops are in the field an average of 20 days out of 30 and static
missions are ended.
          c. Emphasis on "clear and hold operations" instead of terrain
sweeps which have little permanent value.
          d. The expansion of personnel in combat units to full authorized
strength.
          e. The training and arming of hamlet militia to an accelerated
rate, especially in the Delta.
          f. A consolidation of the strategic hamlet program, especially in
the Delta, and action to insure that future strategic hamlets are not built
until they can be protected, and until civic action programs can be
introduced.
          2. A program be established to train Vietnamese so that essential
functions now performed by U.S. military personnel can be carried out by
Vietnamese by the end of 1965. It should be possible to withdraw the bulk of
U.S. personnel by that time.
          3. In accordance with the program to train progressively Vietnamese
to take over military functions, the Defense Department should announce in
the very near future presently prepared plans to withdraw 1000 U.S. military
personnel by the end of 1963. This action should be explained in low key as
an initial step in a long-term program to replace U.S. personnel with trained
Vietnamese without impairment of the war effort.
          4. The following actions be taken to impress upon Diem our
disapproval of his political program.
          a. Continue to withhold commitment of funds in the commodity import
program, but avoid a formal announcement. The potential significance of the
withholding of commitments for the 1964 military budget should be brought
home to the top military officers in working level contacts between USOM and
MACV and the Joint General Staff; up to now we have stated $95 million may be
used by the Vietnamese as a planning level for the commodity import program
for 1964. Henceforth we could make clear that this is uncertain both because
of lack of final appropriation action by the Congress and because of
executive policy.
          b. Suspend approval of the pending AID loans for the Saigon- Cholon
Waterworks and Saigon Electric Power Project. We should state clearly that we
are doing so as a matter of policy.
          c. Advise Diem that MAP and CIA support for designated units, now
under Colonel Tung's control (mostly held in or near the Saigon area for
political reasons) will be cut off unless these units are promptly assigned
to the full authority of the Joint General Staff and transferred to the
field.
          d. Maintain the present purely "correct" relations with the top
GVN, and specifically between the Ambassador and Diem. Contact between
General Harkins and Diem and Defense Secretary Thuan on military matters
should not, however, be suspended, as this remains an important channel of
advice. USOM and USIA should also seek to maintain contacts where these are
needed to push forward programs in support of the effort in the field, while
taking care not to cut across the basic picture of U.S. disapproval and
uncertainty of U.S. aid intentions. We should work with the Diem government
but not support it.[3]
          As we pursue these courses of action, the situation must be closely
watched to see what steps Diem is taking to reduce repressive practices and
to improve the effectiveness of the military effort. We should set no fixed
criteria, but recognize that we would have to decide in 2-4 months whether to
move to more drastic action or try to carry on with Diem even if he had not
taken significant steps.
          5. At this time, no initiative should be taken to encourage
actively a change in government. Our policy should be to seek urgently to
identify and build contacts with an alternative leadership if and when it
appears.
          6. The following statement be approved as current U.S. policy
toward South Vietnam and constitute the substance of the government position
to be presented both in Congressional testimony and in public statements.
          a. The security of South Vietnam remains vital to United States
security. For this reason, we adhere to the overriding objective of denying
this country to Communism and of suppressing the Viet Cong insurgency as
promptly as possible. (By suppressing the insurgency we mean reducing it to
proportions manageable by the national security forces of the GVN, unassisted
by the presence of U.S. military forces.) We believe the U.S. part of the
task can be completed by the end of 1965, the terminal date which we are
taking as the time objective of our counterinsurgency programs.
          b. The military program in Vietnam has made progress and is sound
in principle.
          c. The political situation in Vietnam remains deeply serious. It
has not yet significantly affected the military effort, but could do so at
some time in the future. If the result is a GVN ineffective in the conduct of
the war, the U.S. will review its attitude toward support for the government.
Although we are deeply concerned by repressive practices, effective
performance in the conduct of the war should be the determining factor in our
relations with the GVN.
          d. The U.S. has expressed its disapproval of certain actions of the
Diem-Nhu regime and will do so again if required. Our policy is to seek to
bring about the abandonment of repression because of its effect on the
popular will to resist. Our means consist of expressions of disapproval and
the withholding of support from GVN activities that are not clearly
contributing to the war effort. We will use these means as required to assure
an effective military program.
          [Here follow Sections II, "Military Situation and Trends," III,
"Economic Situation and Trends," IV, "Political Situation and Trends," and V,
"Effect on Political Tension."]
VI. OVERALL EVALUATION
          From the above analysis it is clear that the situation requires a
constant effort by the U.S. to obtain a reduction of political tensions and
improved performance by the Vietnamese Government. We cannot say with
assurance whether the effort against the Viet Cong will ultimately fail in
the absence of major political improvements. However, it does seem clear that
after another period of repressive action progress may be reduced and indeed
reversed. Although the present momentum might conceivably continue to carry
the effort forward even if Diem remains in power and political tensions
continue, any significant slowing in the rate of progress would surely have a
serious effect on U.S. popular support for the U.S. effort.
VII. U.S. LEVERAGES TO OBTAIN DESIRED CHANGES IN THE
DIEM REGIME
A. Conduct of U.S. Representatives.
          U.S. personnel in Saigon might adopt an attitude of coolness toward
their Vietnamese counterparts, maintaining only those contacts and
communications which are necessary for the actual conduct of operations in
the field. To some extent this is the attitude already adopted by the
Ambassador himself, but it could be extended to the civilian and military
agencies located in Saigon. The effect of such action would be largely
psychological.
B. Economic Leverage.
          Together, USOM's Commodity Import Program (CIP) and the PL 480
program account for between 60 and 70 percent of imports into Vietnam. The
commitment of funds under the CIP has already been suspended. CIP deliveries
result in the generation of piastres, most of which go to the support of the
defense budget. It is estimated that CIP pipelines will remain relatively
large for some five or six months, and within this time period there would
not be a serious material effect. Even within this period, however, the flow
of piastres to support the defense budget will gradually begin to decline and
the GVN will be forced to draw down its foreign exchange reserves or curtail
its military expenditures.
          Within the domestic economy the existing large pipelines would mean
that there would be no material reason for inflation to begin in the short
term period. However, the psychological effect of growing realization that
the CIP program has been suspended might be substantial in 2-4 months. Saigon
has a large number of speculative traders, and although there is considerable
police effort to control prices, this might not be able to contain a general
trend of speculation and hoarding. Once inflation did develop, it could have
a serious effect on the GVN budget and the conduct of the war.
          Apart from CIP, two major AID projects are up for final approval --
the Saigon-Cholon Waterworks ($9 million) and the Saigon Electric Power
Project ($4 million). Suspension of these projects would be a possible means
of demonstrating to Congress and the world that we disapprove of GVN policies
and are not providing additional aid not directly essential to the war
effort.
C. Paramilitary and Other Assistance.
          (1) USOM assistance to the Combat Police and USOM and USIS
assistance to the Director General of Information and the ARVN PsyWar Program
could be suspended. These projects involve a relatively small amount of local
currency but their suspension, particularly in the case of USIS, might
adversely affect programs which the U.S. wishes to see progress.
          (2) However, there would be merit in a gesture aimed at Colonel
Tung, the Special Forces Commander, whose forces in or near Saigon played a
conspicuous part in the pagoda affair and are a continuing support for Diem.
Colonel Tung commands a mixed complex of forces, some of which are supported
by MAP and others presently through CIA. All of those now in or near Saigon
were trained either for combat missions or for special operations into North
Vietnam and Laos. Purely on grounds of their not being used for their proper
missions, the U.S. could inform Diem that we would cut off MAP and CIA
support unless they were placed directly under Joint General Staff and were
committed to field operations.
          The practical effect of the cut-off would probably be small. The
equipment cannot be taken out of the hands of the units, and the pay provided
to some units could be made up from the GVN budget. Psychologically, however,
the significance of the gesture might be greater. At the least it would
remove one target of press criticism of the U.S., and would probably also be
welcomed by the high military officers in Vietnam, and certainly by the
disaffected groups in Saigon.
          At the same time, support should continue, but through General
Harkins rather than CIA, for border surveillance and other similar field
operations that are contributing to the war effort.
          We have weighed this cut-off action carefully. It runs a risk that
Colonel Tung would refuse to carry out external operations against the Lao
corridor and North Vietnam. It might also limit CIA's access to the military.
However, U.S. liaison with high military officers could probably be fully
maintained through the U.S. military advisors. On balance, we conclude that
these possible disadvantages are outweighed by the gains implicit in this
action.
          (3) Consideration has been given both by USOM and the military
(principally the JCS in Washington) to the possibility of redirecting
economic and military assistance in such a fashion as to bypass the central
government in Saigon. Military studies have shown the technical feasibility,
though with great difficulty and cost, of supplying the war effort in the
countryside over lines of communications which do not involve Saigon, and it
is assumed that the same conclusions would apply to USOM deliveries to the
filed under the rural strategic hamlet program. However, there is a consensus
among U.S. agencies in Saigon that such an effort is not practical in the
face of determined opposition by the GVN unless, of course, a situation had
developed where the central government was no longer in control of some areas
of the country. Nor is it at all clear that such diversion would operate to
build up the position of the military or to cut down Nhu's position.
D. Propaganda.
          Although the capability of USIS to support the United States
campaign of pressure against the regime would be small, the Ambassador
believes consideration must be given to the content and timing of the United
States pronouncements outside the country. He has already suggested the use
of the Voice of America in stimulating, in its broadcasts to Vietnamese,
discussions of democratic political philosophies. This medium could be used
to exploit a wide range of ascending political pressure. In addition, a
phased program of United States official pronouncements could be developed
for use in conjunction with the other leverages as they are applied. We must
recognize the possibility that such actions may incite Diem to strong
countermeasures.
E. The Leverage of Conditioning Our Military Aid on Satisfactory Progress.
          Coupled with all the above there is the implicit leverage embodied
in our constantly making it plain to Diem and other that the long term
continuation of military aid is conditioned upon the Vietnamese Government
demonstrating a satisfactory level of progress toward defeat of the
insurgency.
F. Conclusions.
          A program of limited pressures, such as the CIP suspension, will
not have large material effects on the GVN or the war effort, at least for
2-4 months. The psychological effects could be greater, and there is some
evidence that the suspension is already causing concern to Diem. However, the
effect of pressures that can be carried out over an extended period without
detriment to the war effort is probably limited with respect to the
possibility of Diem making necessary changes.
          We have not analyzed with care what the effect might be of a far
more intensive level of pressure such as cessation of MAP deliveries or long
continued suspension of the commodity import program. If the Diem government
should fail to make major improvements, serious consideration would have to
be given to this possible course of action, but we believe its effect on the
war effort would be so serious -- in psychological if not in immediate
material terms -- that it should not be undertaken at the present time.
VIII. COUP POSSIBILITIES
A. Prospects of a Spontaneous Coup.
          The prospects of an early spontaneous replacement of the Diem
Regime are not high. The two principal sources of such an attempt, the senior
military officers and the students, have both been neutralized by a
combination of their own inability and the regime's effective countermeasures
of control. The student organizations have been emasculated. The students
themselves have displayed more emotion than determination and they are
apparently being handled with sufficient police sophistication to avoid an
explosion.
          The generals appear to have little stomach for the difficult job of
secretly arranging the necessary coalescence of force to upset the Regime.
          Diem/Nhu are keenly aware of the capability of the generals to take
over the country, utilizing the tremendous power now vested in the military
forces. They, therefore, concentrate their manipulative talent on the general
officers, by transfers, and by controls over key units and their locations.
They are aware that these actions may reduce efficiency, but they tolerate it
rather than risk the prospect that they be overthrown and their social
revolution frustrated. They have established a praetorian guard to guarantee
considerable bloodshed if any attack is made. The generals have seen slim
hope of surmounting these difficulties without prohibitive risk to
themselves, the unity of the Army and the Establishment itself.
          Despite these unfavorable prospects for action in the short term,
new factors could quickly arise, such as the death of Diem or an
unpredictable and even irrational attack launched by a junior officer group,
which would call urgently for U.S. support or counteraction. In such a case,
the best alternative would appear to be the support of constitutional
continuity in the person of the Vice President, behind whom arrangements
could be developed for a more permanent replacement after a transitional
period.
B. Prospects for Improvement under an Alternative Government.
          The prospects that a replacement regime would be an improvement
appear to be about 50-50.[4] Initially, only a strongly authoritarian regime
would be able to pull the government together and maintain order. In view of
the pre-eminent role of the military in Vietnam today, it is probable that
this role would be filled by a military officer, perhaps taking power after
the selective process of a junta dispute. Such an authoritarian military
regime, perhaps after an initial period of euphoria at the departure of
Diem/Nhu, would be apt to entail a resumption of the repression at least of
Diem, the corruption of the Vietnamese Establishment before Diem, and an
emphasis on conventional military rather than social, economic and political
considerations, with at least an equivalent degree of xenophobic nationalism.
          These features must be weighed, however, against the possible
results of growing dominance or succession by Nhu, which would continue and
even magnify the present dissension, unhappiness and unrest.
C. Possible U.S. Actions.
          Obviously, clear and explicit U.S. support could make a great
difference to the chances of a coup. However, at the present time we lack a
clear picture of what acceptable individuals might be brought to the point of
action, or what kind of government might emerge. We therefore need an
intensive clandestine effort, under the Ambassador's direction, to establish
necessary contacts to allow the U.S. to continuously appraise coup prospects.
          If and when we have a better picture, the choice will still remain
difficult whether we would prefer to take our chances on a spontaneous coup
(assuming some action by Diem and Nhu would trigger it) or to risk U.S.
prestige and having the U.S. hand show with a coup group which appeared
likely to be a better alternative government. Any regime that was identified
from the outset as a U.S. "puppet" would have disadvantages both within South
Vietnam and in significant areas of the world, including other underdeveloped
nations where the U.S. has a major role.
          In any case, whether or not it proves to be wise to promote a coup
at a later time, we must be ready for the possibility of a spontaneous coup,
and this too requires clandestine contacts on an intensive basis.
IX. ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE POLICIES
          Broadly speaking, we believe there are three alternative policies
the U.S. could pursue to achieve its political and military objectives:
          1. Return to avowed support of the Diem regime and attempt to
obtain the necessary improvements through persuasion from a posture of
"reconciliation." This would not mean any expression of approval of the
repressive actions of the regime, but simply that we would go back in
practice to business as usual.
          2. Follow a policy of selective pressures: "purely correct"
relationships at the top official level, continuing to withhold further
actions in the commodity import program, and making clear our disapproval of
the regime. A further element in this policy is letting the present impression
 stand that the U.S. would not be averse to a change of Government --
although we would not take any immediate actions to initiate a coup.
          3. Start immediately to promote a coup by high ranking military
officers. This policy might involve more extended suspensions of aid and
sharp denunciations of the regime's actions so timed as to fit with coup
prospects and planning.
          Our analysis of these alternatives is as follows:
          1. Reconciliation.
          We believe that this course of action would be ineffective from the
standpoint of events in South Vietnam alone, and would also greatly increase
our difficulties in justifying the present U.S. support effort both to the
Congress and generally to significant third nations. We are most unlikely,
after recent events, to get Diem to make the necessary changes; on the
contrary, he would almost certainly regard our reconciliation as an evidence
that the U.S. would sit still for just about anything he did. The result
would probably be not only a continuation of the destructive elements in the
Regime's policies but a return to larger scale repressions as and when Diem
and Nhu thought they were necessary. The result would probably be sharp
deterioration in the military situation in a fairly short period.
          2. Selective Pressures.
          We have examined numerous possibilities of applying pressures to
Diem in order to incline him to the direction of our policies. The most
powerful instrument at our disposal is the control of military and economic
aid but any consideration of its use reveals the double-edged nature of its
effects. Any long-term reduction of aid cannot but have an eventual adverse
effect on the military campaign since both the military and the economic
programs have been consciously designed and justified in terms of their
contribution to the war effort. Hence, immediate reductions must be selected
carefully and be left in effect only for short periods.
          We believe that the present level of pressures is causing, and will
cause, Diem some concern, while at the same time not significantly impairing
the military effort. We are not hopeful that this level (or indeed any level)
of pressure will actually induce Diem to remove Nhu from the picture
completely. However, there is a better chance that Diem will at least be
deterred from resuming large scale oppressions.
          At the same time, there are various factors that set a time limit
to pursuing this course of action in its present form. Within 2-4 months we
have to make critical decisions with the GVN about its 1964 budget and our
economic support level. In addition, there is a significant and growing
possibility that even the present limited actions in the economic field --
more for psychological than for economic reasons -- would start a wave of
speculation and inflation that would be difficult to control or bring back
into proper shape. As to when we would reverse our present course, the
resumption of the full program of economic and military aid should be tied to
the actions of the Diem government.
          As a foundation for the development of our long-term economic and
military aid programs, we believe it may be possible to develop specific
military objectives to be achieved on an agreed schedule. The extent to which
such objectives are met, in conjunction with an evaluation of the regime's
political performance, would determine the level of aid for the following
period.
          3. Organizing a Coup.
          For the reasons stated earlier, we believe this course of action
should not be undertaken at the present time.
          On balance we consider that the most promising course of action to
adopt at this time is an application of selective short-term pressures,
principally economic, and the conditioning of long-term aid on the
satisfactory performance by the Diem government in meeting military and
political objectives which in the aggregate equate to the requirements of
final victory. The specific actions recommended in Section I of this report ar
e consistent with this policy.

Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff
Secretary of Defense [5]



------------------------------------------------------------------------


1.  Source: Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Vietnam Country Series,
Memos and Miscellaneous. Top Secret. Also printed in United States-Vietnam
Relations, 1945-1967, Book 12, pp. 554-573.

2.  Document 142.

3.  Mr. Colby believes that the official "correct" relationship should be
supplemented by selected and restricted unofficial and personal relationships
with individuals in the GVN, approved by the Ambassador, where persuasion
could be fruitful without derogation of the official U.S. posture. [Footnote
in the source text.]

4.  Mr. Sullivan (State) believes that a replacement regime which does not
suffer from the overriding danger of Nhu's ambition to establish a
totalitarian state (the control of which he might easily lose to the
Communists in the course of his flirtations) would be inevitably better than
the current regime even if the former did have the deficiencies described.
[Footnote in the source text.]

5.  The source text bears no signatures.
--[cont. at website]--
Aloha, He'Ping,
Om, Shalom, Salaam.
Em Hotep, Peace Be,
All My Relations.
Omnia Bona Bonis,
Adieu, Adios, Aloha.
Amen.
Roads End

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