-Caveat Lector- <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/"> </A> -Cui Bono?- WJPBR Email News List [EMAIL PROTECTED] Peace at any cost is a prelude to war! STRATFOR.COM Global Intelligence Update 23 February 2000 Mubarak Supports Fundamentalists - In Lebanon Summary In a surprise visit, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak visited Lebanon Feb. 19 and issued a statement supporting Hezbollah in its conflict with occupying Israeli troops. In doing so, Mubarak puts a damper on the Israel-Syria peace process and supports the new government of Iran. Both actions help him contain Egypt's own fundamentalists. Analysis President Hosni Mubarak became the first Egyptian head of state to visit Lebanon in a surprise visit Feb. 19. He stood with Lebanese president Emile Lahoud in upholding the "right" of the Lebanese Hezbollah to continue attacks on Israeli troops stationed in south Lebanon. Mubarak's motivation, however, lies less with any sympathies for his fellow Muslims than with his desire to keep his own country stable. Islamic fundamentalism has been a major security concern for Egypt for the past 50 years. A major fundamentalist group, the Muslim Brotherhood, was founded as an Egyptian political movement in 1928, but turned violent after World War II. Mubarak's predecessor, Anwar Sadat, was assassinated by an Islamic extremist in 1981, and Mubarak has escaped several attempts on his own life. Fundamentalists are still active in Egypt, despite waves of arrests by the government. In 1997, more than 60 tourists were killed near Luxor, with blame falling on Muslim extremists supported by Sudan, and ultimately Iran. In combating fundamentalists, Mubarak is attempting to keep them isolated by cutting off foreign sources of men and materiel. However, his tactic is threatened by the Israeli-Syrian peace process, which if resolved could cause Islamists to withdraw from southern Lebanon and turn their resources elsewhere, perhaps to Egypt. Currently, fundamentalist attention and resources are focused on combating the Israeli occupation of Lebanon. The best thing for Mubarak would be for Israel to stay in Lebanon for as long as possible. This will keep Hezbollah occupied and away from Egypt. Mubarak's statement is a calculated attempt to give Israel's right-wing factions added ammunition to oppose plans for a military pullout. A second effect of Mubarak's visit is that it supports the moderate regime of Iranian President Mohammad Khatami. Since 1979, Iran has seen itself as the guardian of the fundamentalist Islamic revolution and has supported fundamentalist movements in many countries - including Egypt, Lebanon and Turkey. Although Mubarak would prefer a secular regime in Tehran, the moderate position of Khatami is preferable to those of his conservative rivals. By supporting Hezbollah, Mubarak can show Tehran's conservatives that the Islamic revolution is alive and well. This takes pressure off Khatami. Greater power for Khatami, who slowly has been improving ties with Egypt, will likely result in decreased Iranian support for Egypt's fundamentalists. Mubarak's statement reflects his own concern with internal stability, but it does little to help the peace process between Syria and Israel. This is absolutely fine with Syria, which benefits from the current stalemate. [http://www.stratfor.com/meaf/commentary/m9911020210.htm] It maintains a relatively stable border with Israel and a de facto peace, but at the same time gets Israel to handle the Hezbollah militants and provides justification for Syria's continued presence in northern Lebanon. Egypt benefits from the status quo as well, because a large portion of Israel's military is tied down in Lebanon. Supporting the Hezbollah with mere words costs Mubarak little. It may not amount to very much, but there is a small chance his statements could pay off. Egypt's internal stability, Iran's factional maneuvering and Syria's attempts to delay an Israeli pullout all stand to benefit from Mubarak's cameo appearance. If it doesn't work, Mubarak has lost nothing. (c) 2000, WNI Inc. **COPYRIGHT NOTICE** In accordance with Title 17 U. S. C. Section 107, any copyrighted work in this message is distributed under fair use without profit or payment to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for nonprofit research and educational purposes only.[Ref. http://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/17/107.shtml ] <A HREF="http://www.ctrl.org/">www.ctrl.org</A> DECLARATION & DISCLAIMER ========== CTRL is a discussion & informational exchange list. 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