-Caveat Lector-
December 18, 2000
Clinton's global warming time bomb
Patrick J. Michaels
The Washington Times
Now that the election is finally over, the Clinton administration
has a last chance to do some real damage to George W. Bush's
economy.
President Clinton believes passionately that part of his legacy
will be to put in place a mechanism that will forever mire
America in the United Nations' infamous Kyoto Protocol on global
warming. Last month, the signatories met at The Hague, where Mr.
Clinton proposed that we meet almost 90 percent of our
obligations to reduce net emissions of major greenhouse gases by
cutting energy use. Originally, the United States had proposed
to lock up 50 percent of such emissions through trees and soil
management � a relatively inexpensive proposition � but the
European Union insists on emissions reductions, a course that
will cause us grave economic harm.
So we caved all the way to a 90 percent reduction, and the EU
still said no, we need more. Then, earlier this month, the
Clinton administration tried again in a closed-door meeting in
Ottawa, Canada. Still no agreement. Finally, on Dec. 13,
Norway's Environment Ministry invited everyone to Oslo � before
Christmas � for a third try.
This will be the last go-round, and Mr. Clinton has every
incentive to give away the store. The result is a twofold legacy
� being the first U.S. leader to commit to major reductions in
greenhouse gases, and saddling the incoming president with a
massive political and economic burden that will have absolutely
no detectable effect on global weather and climate.
The political gains are obvious Mr. Bush either gets clobbered
in 2004 or the Republicans suffer in 2008. While Kyoto
agreements go into force in 2008, major taxes and infrastructural
changes have to begin long before then to meet these massive
reductions in energy use. First, say goodbye to affordable
electricity. Currently 56 percent of our juice is produced by
burning coal, but because it emits a bit more greenhouse gas per
unit of energy than natural gas (which costs more), well, coal
has gotta go.
California, as usual, is leading the way here. Thanks to a
moratorium on production of fossil fuel power plants, California
is out of power. It is a sad day when our Grinch-green friends
compel us to turn off the Christmas lights, but that is the case
right now in Los Angeles.
Second, we hope you like your new hybrid automobile. The
technology is really cool. My Honda Insight really does get 70
miles per gallon on a good day, and it is an engineering marvel.
The only problem is that Honda is losing at least $8,000 per car,
and the company only sold 3,502 through November. It seats two
comfortably.
So either we are going to have to pay about 50 percent more for a
mid-range hybrid car, or we are all going to have to make it up
in taxes to subsidize those who do buy them. And it might require
quite a subsidy, too. Insight sales in November, at 291 units,
were down 40 percent from August, despite giveaway prices.
Third, the $2-a-gallon gas of spring 2000 will be just a fond
memory, thanks to the taxes required to discourage enough
consumption to make you buy that subsidized hybrid.
High gas prices, tax-mandated technology and dark Christmas trees
are not the correlates of political popularity. But that is
exactly where Mr. Clinton could force Mr. Bush to go if he
gives away the store in Oslo.
All this for an agreement, the Kyoto Protocol, that is not the
law of the land. It hasn't been ratified by the Senate, and it
stands little chance. And even if it were in force, the Clinton
administration's own scientists say it would only change global
temperature by seven hundredths of a degree in 50 years. That's
too small to measure.
There will almost certainly be some weather disaster during the
Bush administration. Right now, the insured value of property
along the East Coast is almost equal to our annual gross domestic
product. We haven't had a Category 5 hurricane hit since 1969.
Even a lower Category 4, well-aimed, will cause unimaginable
destruction. Federal scientist Christopher Landsea (the most
appropriately named hurricanologist in the world) has shown that
even this class of hurricane, if it hit Miami/Fort Lauderdale,
would be good for about $70 billion. On the high end, $100
billion from a Category 5 isn't out of the question. People will
blame global warming rather than admit it is pretty stupid to
sink one's life savings in a sand dune on a hurricane-prone
beach.
In George Bush Sr.'s administration, the Senate was adamantly
opposed to a different climate treaty � the Montreal Protocol to
ban chlorofluorocarbons (CFC) refrigerants. NASA scientist Bob
Watson � now the powerful head of the U.N.'s Panel on Climate
Change � announced an imminent ozone hole over North America, and
five days later, the Senate passed a ban on CFCs, 99-to-1. A
senator by the name of Al Gore whipped up the troops with an
impassioned speech about an ozone hole over Kennebunkport, Maine,
former President Bush's home.
Never mind that the predicted disaster never happened. NASA had
made a measurement error. But Bob and his friend Al had
correctly calculated the political trajectory that would bring in
the ban on CFCs.
So it can happen, and next week in Oslo the Clinton
administration may sow the seeds that trash the future of George
W. Bush.
Patrick J. Michaels is senior fellow in environmental studies at
the Cato Institute and author of "The Satanic Gases" (Cato
Institute, 2000).
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