"Dreamland" by Sam Quinones has a good description of the history of our current epidemic. Highly recommended.
Estimates vary by source, but fraction of opioid deaths that are suicide is around 20-30% On Wed, Jan 2, 2019 at 11:01 AM Marcus Daniels <mar...@snoutfarm.com> wrote: > > http://theconversation.com/suicide-nation-whats-behind-the-need-to-numb-and-to-seek-a-final-escape-98137 > > > > “Americans stand out from people in other countries with respect to their > focus on individualism. Americans believe that success is determined by our > own control and that it is very important to work hard to get ahead in > life. Perhaps it is this focus on our own achievements, successes and work > culture that have created an environment that is no longer sustainable – it > has become too stressful.” > > > > *Apoptosis <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apoptosis>* is the word that > comes to mind. > > > > *From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Marcus Daniels < > mar...@snoutfarm.com> > *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Date: *Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:45 AM > *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject: *Re: [FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard) > > > > Dumb question: Is there anything behind this besides an burst of legal > prescriptions that created a self-reinforcing trend? > > Or are people actually going crazy? > > > > *From: *Friam <friam-boun...@redfish.com> on behalf of Robert Holmes < > rob...@robertholmes.org> > *Reply-To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Date: *Wednesday, January 2, 2019 at 10:16 AM > *To: *The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group < > friam@redfish.com> > *Subject: *[FRIAM] Statistical poser (aka fact checking is hard) > > > > Early this week I came across a recent press release from NM Dept of > Health: "Governor Martinez Announces Continued Improvement in Drug > Overdose Death Rankings" > <https://nmhealth.org/news/information/2018/12/?view=728>. I've been > tinkering round with opioid statistics, so thought it might be worth fact > checking the release. The results were… interesting. If nothing else > they've shown me how difficult it must be to communicate public health > statistics. > > > > So here are some of the key figures from the release: > > - New Mexico’s national ranking has improved from the second highest > death drug overdose death rate in the United States in 2014 to 17th highest > in 2017 > - New Mexico previously reported a 4 percent decline in death rates in > 2017 due to overdose of commonly prescribed opioids such as oxycodone > compared to 2016. In addition, deaths due to heroin decreased by 9 percent > and deaths due to synthetic opioids such as fentanyl decreased by 6 percent > over the same time period. > > The first of these claims passed my sniff test: I know NM's ranking has > been improving, even though individual counties rank the wort in the > nation. And sure enough, if you pull the underlying CDC data > <https://wonder.cdc.gov/mcd.html> you can confirm these exact numbers > (ignoring DC). > > > > The second claim is the one that gave me pause. Those reductions in > individual opioids look kinda high. Yes, NM's ranking is improving but it's > because our rate is essentially stable while other states rocket past. And > when I check the above CDC data, yes the reduction in death rate appears to > be about 2% > > > > So there's the poser: if NM's reduction in opioid deaths (2016-2017) is > 2%, how can this be consistent with individual opioid reductions of 9% > (heroin), 4% (natural & semi synthetic, inc. oxycodone), and 6% (synthetic, > inc. fentanyl)? > > > > —Robert > > > > P.S. I'll post my best guess later. Oh, and it's not that they omitted > methadone: deaths due to that are down 19% in the same period. > ============================================================ > FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv > Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College > to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com > archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ > FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove >
============================================================ FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College to unsubscribe http://redfish.com/mailman/listinfo/friam_redfish.com archives back to 2003: http://friam.471366.n2.nabble.com/ FRIAM-COMIC http://friam-comic.blogspot.com/ by Dr. Strangelove
