This E-Mail to Scott contains a number of cites and mentions of actual research. I thought it would be of interest to others - particularly as putting it together takes some work. None of this will be discussed at Bali where no doubt a world underwater will be mentioned a time or two particularly if Gore is present.
Harry Scott, The research that interests me is Johannessen's comprehensive measurement of ice thickness increase in Greenland (2005). If my memory serves they measured 45 million separate points - or at least the satellites did. I should say that in the full paper Johannessen is somewhat critical of earlier research which is somewhat spotty and mostly dealt with the coastal area where Johannessen found a thinning. He didn't say what I suspect. That, the GW scientists are anxious to 'rush to judgment' so their results can be published in the GW press. A description and his measurements are at the end of this post. Then there are the findings of Shepherd and Wingham (2007). The scientists studied 14 pieces of research into the water run-off from both Greenland and Antarctica. Their "best estimate" of the contribution of both Greenland and Antarctica to sea level rise over the next century is less than 1.5" - actually 1.38" to be added to the 3 mm per year that may be the result of expanding volume from warmer temperatures. This is somewhat less than Gore's "if" statements of about 23ft. HYPERLINK "http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/152 9"http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/abstract/315/5818/15 29 You'll note that they accept that "Antarctica and Greenland are each losing mass overall" but say its apparently a small amount. Of course, this runs counter to Johannessen (and Zwally) who see an ice-sheet mass increase in Greenland. On the other hand, if it's one thing of which we are sure it's that GW is diminishing glaciers. Yet, again we have to be careful. Yde, et al (2006) found that "Greenland's glaciers have been shrinking for the past century, suggesting that the ice melt is not a recent phenomenon caused by global warming." (Later, he suggested the recent acceleration was linked to increased man-made CO2, yet how he makes this connection is difficult to discover. As in most such links, perhaps scientists repeat what "everybody knows".) This shrinking caused by natural warming apparently began around the 1880's after the Little Ice Age had run its course and before the large increase in atmospheric CO2. For the really long term "trend", we go to Hormes et al. (2006) working in the Alps who determined that "the glaciers investigated were less extensive than during the 1990s, with a shorter length during several defined periods." These periods were: 10,110-9550, 9210-7980, 7450-6500, 6370-5950, 5860-3360, 2940-2620 and 2500-1170 years before present. So the glaciers apparently diminish, then grow, then diminish again. Incidentally, Hormes' thrust is linking global climate change to solar activity variations. You'll note that Johannessen linked winter elevation changes in Greenland to the North Atlantic Oscillation. (My golly! Could natural events other than CO2 increase have some connection to Global Warming!) Finally, perhaps a real problem - the often large changes in climate change effect that happen briefly giving a false trend. It is a common remark from scientists that the time spans are two short to distinguish a trend. Howat, et al, in Science (March 2007) using satellite-derived surface elevation and velocity data, found major short-term variations in recent ice discharge and mass loss at two of Greenland's largest outlet glaciers. Their combined rate of mass loss doubled in less than a year in 2004 and then decreased in 2006 to near the previous rates. So to prove that Global Warming is sizzling use 2004 - remain silent about 2006. To prove GW is false, concentrate on 2006. To prove the Greenland ice sheet is melting measure below 1,500 meters near the coasts. To prove the ice sheet is thickening measure above 1,500 meters. And so it goes. Harry .. ............................................................ ................... This is a description of Johannessens findings a massive increase in the Greenland ice-sheet, rather than what everyone knows. .. .. Originally published in Science Express on 20 October 2005 - Science 11 November 2005: Vol. 310. no. 5750, pp. 1013 -1016 DOI: Ice-Sheet Growth in the Interior of Greenland Ola M. Johannessen,1,2* Kirill Khvorostovsky,3 Martin W. Miles,4,5 Leonid P. Bobylev3 A continuous data set of Greenland Ice Sheet altimeter height from European Remote Sensing satellites (ERS-1 and ERS-2), 1992 to 2003, has been analyzed. An increase of 6.4 ± 0.2 centimeters per year (cm/year) is found in the vast interior areas above 1500 meters, in contrast to previous reports of high-elevation balance. Below 1500 meters, the elevation-change rate is 2.0 ± 0.9 cm/year, in qualitative agreement with reported thinning in the ice-sheet margins. Averaged over the study area, the increase is 5.4 ± 0.2 cm/year, or 60 cm over 11 years, or 54 cm when corrected for isostatic uplift. Winter elevation changes are shown to be linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation. 1 Mohn-Sverdrup Center for Global Ocean Studies and Operational Oceanography, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, Bergen, 5006, Norway. 2 Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, 5007, Norway. 3 Nansen International Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, St. Petersburg, 197101, Russia. 4 Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, 5007, Norway. 5 Environmental Systems Analysis Research Center, Boulder, CO 80303, USA. * To whom correspondence should be addressed. E-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] ............................................................ .................... ****************************** Harry Pollard Henry George School of Los Angeles Box 655 Tujunga CA 91042 818 352-4141 ****************************** No virus found in this outgoing message. Checked by AVG Free Edition. Version: 7.5.503 / Virus Database: 269.17.1/1183 - Release Date: 12/13/2007 9:15 AM
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