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Desperate Assad conscripting 50-year-olds as beleaguered Syrian regime
forces halved by deaths, defections and draft-dodging
13 JANUARY 2017 • 6:51PM
Karim Habib never imagined he would join the millions of refugees
fleeing his country, but on Monday he got a call he had long been dreading.
A friend in the Syrian army informed him that he would soon be called up
for military service, which the 48-year-old oil worker believed was long
behind him. He decided to pack his bags and head for the border.
“I did not think they would come for me,” he says from a relative’s
house in Beirut, the capital of neighbouring Lebanon. “But they are
recruiting more men now than at any other time during the war.
“The regime is so desperate they are coming for anyone that can carry a
weapon. The age limit is supposed to be 42, but now even those in their
50s and those with health problems are having to fight.
"They are being stationed around the country - manning checkpoints in
Aleppo and even on the frontlines around Damascus,” he said.
Reservists in Bashar al-Assad’s coastal heartland of Latakia also
received orders late last month to immediately report for duty with the
newly formed 5th Corps.
President Assad’s regime may appear stronger than ever, propped up by
its Russian and Iranian allies and fresh from victory in Aleppo, but its
beleaguered army is struggling.
The 300,000-strong pre-war force has been halved by deaths, defections
and draft-dodging.
“There are no longer any men between 18-50 on the streets any more,” Mr
Habib - using a pseudonym to protect his family still in Syria - told
the Telegraph. “Those who try to avoid the call are imprisoned and
tortured, so I felt I had no option but to leave.”
Mr Habib had a good job working as a manager at an oil company in the
capital - making him one of the middle class Syria will desperately need
when the conflict is over and the country tries to get back on its feet.
For now he waits in Beirut for his wife and three young children to be
granted visas for Germany, where he holds citizenship and hopes to start
a new life.
But many others in Mr Habib’s position did not have the option of fleeing.
Syrian army burn revolutionary flag in Aleppo
Syrian army burn revolutionary flag in Aleppo CREDIT: REUTERS
Under the cover of the regime’s offensive on Aleppo, thousands of
civilians were captured and forcibly conscripted.
The United Nations has raised concerns that as many as 6,000 men of
military age are missing after heading from east Aleppo into
government-controlled areas.
“The regime has a serious manpower problem, which has so far been
compensated by tens of thousands of foreign fighters and loyalist
militias along with the Russian air force and Iranian advisers,” Faysal
Itani, a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri
Centre for the Middle East, told the Telegraph. “How it will control the
territory it captures if the foreigners get bored and leave is an
important question.”
With the Russians announcing a military scale-back and its most
battle-hardy ally Hizbollah suffering huge casualties, the regime is
having to dig deep.
Despite the ceasefire, brokered by Moscow and Ankara, government forces
have continued offensives on strategic areas and are in need of troops
to help reclaim them.
The regime is keen to regain control of the outskirts of Damascus, the
capital and seat of power in Syria. The town of Wadi Barada is of
greatest importance as the valley is the primary source of water for
five million people.
Government forces have in recent days been pummelling the besieged town
with air strkes and artillery fire on the ground.
“Damascus and the surrounding suburbs are at the top of Assad’s bucket
list,” said Mr Itani. “Once that’s in hand, he will turn his attention
to holdout pockets in Homs and Hama, and then Idlib.”
Idlib, which is controlled by a messy alliance of rebel groups dominated
by the Islamist Jaish Fateh al-Sham, is now the largest opposition
stronghold.
The government has been using it as a holding pen, sending rebel
fighters from east Aleppo and other areas which have surrendered under
so-called reconciliation deals.
Watch | Rockets hit military airport west of Damascus
00:41
Ali Haidar, Syria’s national reconciliation minister, said last week
that he expected more accords in coming months to send thousands of
fighters to Idlib from areas near Damascus and south of it, as the army
advances.
But he said that the state could not allow Idlib to remain in insurgent
hands indefinitely. Unless there was an international deal that
addressed the situation, "then the other option is to go to an open
battle with them", he said.
Mr Assad has promised to retake the whole country, but it is likely a
promise he cannot keep.
The opposing powers brokering peace talks later this month in Kazakhstan
look set to carve Syria up into different zones of influence.
Mr Assad would keep Aleppo, which is important to Iran as it serves as a
supply route from Tehran to Hizbollah in Lebanon, as well as coastal
regions where the Russians have bases.
However, the president will be sure to lose control over much of
northern Syria, where Turkey has stationed troops looking to create a
“buffer zone” along the border.
The Kurdish question also still remains - whether Syria’s Kurds will be
allowed to form their own federal state as they have in neighbouring
northern Iraq, or whether they will be left out of the deal altogether.
As for the future of Mr Assad, it now looks increasingly likely he will
stay in power until the next presidential election. He could then be
replaced by a candidate from his Alawite sect.
It may be some time before Mr Habib is able to return.
“All I know is that I cannot serve for this brutal regime which has
destroyed the country,” he says. “There can be no peace under Assad.
Most who have fled will not return until he is gone.”
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