On Thu, 27 Nov 2003 [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: > My prediction: Things will eventually quiet down. Digital will be a > strong influence in our society and one that will continue to grow. Film > will still be around and co-exist with digital for many many years. > Eventually film cameras will start to increase in price and then > everyone will want them. It's just one big cycle.
My prediction: Digital will take over more and more of the film market as time goes by. Film p&s's will die out within a few years, as the price of good-quality digital systems drops to--or below--the cost of cheap film p&s's. Note that I said digital systems, and not cameras. Right now you can buy a Pentax 33L or 33LF for the same price as a good film p&s, and get good 4x6 prints, decent 5x7's, and (for the average person) not bad 8x10's. The problem is that you then have to buy a larger memory card, rechargeable NiMHs, a case, perhaps a card reader, or an AC adapter, or even a computer. When the price of a good digital system drops a bit more, film p&s's will be effectively dead. SLRs will take longer to go. There's still a huge market for cheap entry-level SLRs. Students love 'em because used ones are well-built and often fully mechanical, and others like them because of the flexibility offered by interchangeable lenses. When DSLRs drop in price to be comparable to film SLRs, then you can expect to see film SLR sales decline sharply. I don't think film will ever make a comeback, except in the hands of a few. It will still exist for a long time, but its user base will be limited. I expect to see D&P prices for film rise in the future, and I expect the cost of repairing a film SLR to go up as well. chris
