BLS DAILY REPORT, TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29, 1996 RELEASED TODAY: On a seasonally adjusted basis, compensation costs in the Employment Cost Index for civilian workers (private industry plus state and local governments) rose 0.6 percent during the June-September 1996 period. The March-June increase was 0.8 percent. Wages and salaries increased 0.6 percent from June to September, following gains of 0.9 and 1.0 percent in the second and first quarters of 1996. Benefit costs also increased 0.6 percent in September, about the same as in June; in March, there was no change in benefit costs .... The $4 a barrel increase in oil prices since June, while modest compared with the surges that led to or worsened the recessions of the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, is beginning to worry forecasters ....What is disturbing about this year's jump to $24 to $25 a barrel is that prices are not retreating as many analysts thought they would. While gasoline prices at the pump are falling, prices in the futures market are rising again. Jet fuel prices are also rising, and home heating oil prices are surging ....Just how this will affect the economy and the stock and bond markets is complex because a rise in oil prices has two significant impacts. On the one hand, the price increase works like a tax that can quickly cut into spending and slow growth. On the other hand, a higher oil price is quickly passed on to the consumer, pushing up the CPI ....(New York Times, page D1)_____Gasoline prices jumped nearly a penny per gallon nationwide during the past two weeks, reflecting higher crude oil prices, according to the Lundberg Survey of prices at 10,000 gas stations nationwide. The average retail price for all grades, including taxes, was $1.2834 per gallon (Washington Post, page C2). There's a new battle on the high seas these days: price wars. After operating a little-noticed but legalized price cartel for years, the world's ocean shipping lines have started rebelling against one another, dropping rates as much as 10 percent on some trade lanes -- the largest decline in a decade ....The rates are finally starting to reflect supply and demand, says a transportation professor, which he expects will become a "windfall" for consumers if retailers pass on the savings ....The shipping industry is in the midst of a potential disaster in overbuilding, which is already breaking down the cartels. During a boom a few years ago in cargo business, nearly every major shipping line went on a building spree. Over the next three years, 653 new vessels are expected to come on line ....(Wall Street Journal, page A2). DUE OUT TOMORROW: State and Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment: September 1996
