Hi everybody,

I have a few questions about interpreting the output of the threhsBayes 
function in phytools. Let’s suppose we have a negative correlation between a 
continuous (e.g., body size) and a discrete trait, and the output shows:

Mean correlation from the posterior sample: -0.43
Ordination of discrete traits:
Trait 2: 0 <-> 1

Does the “ordination of discrete traits” imply any directionality between the 
states of the discrete variable? For example, does the negative correlation 
mean larger species are less likely to change from 0 to 1? If so, does it also 
mean larger species are more likely to change from 1 to 0?

Perhaps, a similar interpretation can be found in this paper: 
https://doi.org/10.1111/evo.13657

“The posterior distribution of the Bayesian threshold model had an average 
correlation coefficient between parity mode and temperature of −0.63 (95% HPD: 
−0.4, −0.83), indicating strong support for a negative correlation between 
viviparity and temperature, where viviparity is associated to colder climates 
and oviparity to warmer climates (Supporting Information Fig. S4).”

An alternative interpretation would be that transitions between 0 and 1 (in 
both directions) are more likely to occur among smaller species. Are any of 
these interpretations correct?

Thank you!


Stenio I. A. Foerster
Department of Zoology
University of Tartu  (Tartu, Estonia)
CV<https://www.etis.ee/CV/foersterst/eng> | 
ORCID<https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9639-9009> | 
RG<https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Stenio_Foerster2> | 
Lattes<http://lattes.cnpq.br/0589282540409945>

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