Eliezer,
I think the best thing to do, if you wanted to monetize a
pattern-recognizing AGI but didn't want to start a real business yourself,
would be to hire a single business development person and a single computer
scientist consultant and have them help you set up partnership deals with
existing companies.
This could bring you a LOT of revenue streams from a lot of different
markets, IF you had a really kick-ass demonstration of your system's general
pattern-recognition ability. If your different partners were in different
vertical markets, you could structure the licensing deals so that no one
stepped on anyone else's toes. Then all you need is for one of them to
succeed big-time, and you've got it made.
Even financial prediction, to run it as a business yourself, requires a lot
of effort and business sense. But partnering with an existing financial
prediction company and taking a % of the revenue, requires nothing but
signing a licensing agreement and providing their programmers with access to
your code and docs. You just need an impressive enough demonstration of
your tech to wow them and get the deal.
The list of domain-specific companies you could partner with in this way is
endless. Manufacturing (supply and demand prediction), insurance (risk
management), biotech (bio data analysis) .. I could list hundreds of
possibilities.
Yeah, OK, this is basically Novamente LLC's business model. Except that we
don't have a real AGI yet, I'm the business development person (ugh), and
our first licensing deal is with Biomind LLC, a company that we (the
Novamente team) also cofounded ;-)
-- Ben
-Original Message-
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]On
Behalf Of Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Sent: Tuesday, February 18, 2003 4:07 PM
To: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Subject: [agi] Low-hanging fruits for true AGIs
Okay, hypothetical question... and yes, it's really
hypothetical... if you
had a true AGI, say with very powerful pattern-recognition intelligence
but perhaps not with much in the way of natural human interaction yet,
what would be the simplest and least effortful way to make money with it?
Stock markets and commodities markets are obvious targets, and trading
itself is relatively simple to set up through an online broker; but is
there any freely available online source of data rich enough to perform
prediction on, assuming that stock markets and commodities
markets contain
at least some AGI-recognizable, previously unrecognized, usefully
predictable and reliably exploitable empirical regularities?
Or does any attempt to generate money via AGI require launching
at least a
small specialized company to do so?
--
Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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