Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
On Oct 18, 2007, at 11:32 PM, John G. Rose wrote: It's really hard to sell if the deliverable time frame exceeds 3 to 4 years. Why does an AGI deliverable require more than 3-4 years? You better have a good answer for that, or no one will fund you. Most people *don't* have a good answer for that. Ya personally I don't like the VC model it's better to deliver concrete results even if they are in baby steps. BUT if the guy next to you is getting massive investment THEN what route do you take? Definitely boils down to who's got the right software IMO. There is enough VC money for everyone with a decent business model. Honestly, most AGI is not a decent business model. Otherwise Mentifex would be smothered in cash. It might even keep him quiet. Good AGI with adequate reputation would have no problem getting funded. Indeed, mediocre AGI with adequate reputation routinely gets funded. The problem is an absence of both reputation and business credibility. There are a lot of people with crap reputation that can still turn a dollar. The reality remains that virtually all AGI projects are objectively crap investments, and consequently it is an uphill battle to find people willing to make such investments. A track record is huge; proving that you have delivered on insanity in the past will have VCs lining up to invest in your insanity in the future. But you have to have delivered at some point. Cheers, J. Andrew Rogers - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55274752-0062d6
RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
From: J. Andrew Rogers [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think of. Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on performance and reputation. It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well- deserved. In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for AGI. Which does not suggest other finance models. It's really hard to sell if the deliverable time frame exceeds 3 to 4 years. Ya personally I don't like the VC model it's better to deliver concrete results even if they are in baby steps. BUT if the guy next to you is getting massive investment THEN what route do you take? Definitely boils down to who's got the right software IMO. John - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55273749-bf2e3d
RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
From: J. Andrew Rogers [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast Why does an AGI deliverable require more than 3-4 years? You better have a good answer for that, or no one will fund you. Most people *don't* have a good answer for that. Ya personally I don't like the VC model it's better to deliver concrete results even if they are in baby steps. BUT if the guy next to you is getting massive investment THEN what route do you take? Definitely boils down to who's got the right software IMO. There is enough VC money for everyone with a decent business model. Honestly, most AGI is not a decent business model. Otherwise Mentifex would be smothered in cash. It might even keep him quiet. Good AGI with adequate reputation would have no problem getting funded. Indeed, mediocre AGI with adequate reputation routinely gets funded. The problem is an absence of both reputation and business credibility. There are a lot of people with crap reputation that can still turn a dollar. The reality remains that virtually all AGI projects are objectively crap investments, and consequently it is an uphill battle to find people willing to make such investments. A track record is huge; proving that you have delivered on insanity in the past will have VCs lining up to invest in your insanity in the future. But you have to have delivered at some point. Any software deliverable greater than 3 to 4 years is very high risk. That is either in selling a software deliverable to a customer or an investor. Both are a sell but it's a matter of selling a commitment to yourself in regards to delivery. Do you commit yourself knowingly? And a deliverable may be just a proof-of-concept baby-step reassurance in reality so it's a matter of which burden incurs the most liability - the investor or the customer(s), for the long term goal of comprehensive AGI dev which may take 5 to 10 years... John - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55276743-e774f8
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
Ben wrote: Having said that, I would still prefer to avoid the VC route for Novamente. An other route that Novamente is apparently exploring, is that of open source development, with OpenCog. It will be very interesting to see how it pans out, what level of interest and involvement from the larger developer community it garners, etc. And to bring this thread back somewhat to its origin, the economical viability of AGI projects is obviously relevant to the public, as investors in publicly quoted companies, in capitalistic societies with a widely spread mass of institutional or individual shareholders. To many an Open Source AGI project is the most dangerous path, for the knowledge in the open enables anybody to accelerate their route to evil, and for others it is the only way, through spreading the knowledge to make sure that we have an equally wide understanding of best defenses. In this way the economical model of AGI development is intimately tied to its possible public perception. David Orban www.davidorban.com skype davidorban sl davidorban On 10/19/07, Benjamin Goertzel [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think of. Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on performance and reputation. It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well- deserved. In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for AGI. Which does not suggest other finance models. I think that AGI for agent control in virtual worlds is not so hopeless in terms of appealing to VC's ... there's a real market there, and there's clearly a situation where more and more powerful AGI can yield more and more profits... Having said that, I would still prefer to avoid the VC route for Novamente. I have talked to a number of VC's in recent months -- and by and large they want to pigeonhole us as a company that forever will be focused on whatever our first product is gonna be (If your first product is for instance an animal in virtual worlds then -- bingo! -- you're a virtual animal company!!) VC's in nearly all cases don't have a long time horizon, so to find an AGI opportunity that synergizes with their needs requires a good bit of luck... -- Ben This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55278091-615d4f
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
On 17/10/2007, David Orban [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: There are now Department of Labor predictions of 50%-80% unemployment rates due to automation of white collar jobs. This in my opinion is not a small matter either. On the unemployment question I remain optimistic. If you go back a few hundred years 90% of the population had jobs which were in one way or another involved with agricultural production. Many of these jobs were replaced by automation, especially in the last century, but this doesn't mean that the majority of the population are now unemployed. If the pace of change is too rapid unemployment may result, but humans are creatures of habit and I expect long held traditions to some extent to dampen the effects of introduction of automation. - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=54868205-aa490c
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution. When you look at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some people never seem to learn of the dangers of hype. Having been around for a while I've heard many individuals make a ten years to SAI type of prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong. Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become frustrated/disillusioned and funds get withdrawn). I think people who are seriously interested in the technology should be more measured in their statements, and be honest about the degrees of uncertainty involved. On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: THERE IS A REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 20 YEARS AGO. FIRST WE WILL HAVE ROUGHLY BRIAN LEVEL HARDWARE AT COMMERCIALLYH VIABLE PRICES IN A FEW YEARS. SECOND, MANY OF US HAVE A MUCH MORE DETAILED IDEA OF HOW TO ATTACK ALMOST ALL OF THE HARD PROBLEMS IN AGI. Edward W. Porter Porter Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Original Message- From: Richard Loosemore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:45 PM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast Edward W. Porter wrote: In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and one brighter than people by 2020. I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this list: The race has begun. (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the singularity. Its link is ___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1_ ) I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a workshop 20 years ago. Richard Loosemore - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=54868598-8bc2c9
RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
is spreading the truth. Edward W. Porter Porter Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Original Message- From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Thursday, October 18, 2007 3:38 AM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution. When you look at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some people never seem to learn of the dangers of hype. Having been around for a while I've heard many individuals make a ten years to SAI type of prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong. Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become frustrated/disillusioned and funds get withdrawn). I think people who are seriously interested in the technology should be more measured in their statements, and be honest about the degrees of uncertainty involved. On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: THERE IS A REAL DIFFERENCE BETWEEN NOW AND 20 YEARS AGO. FIRST WE WILL HAVE ROUGHLY BRIAN LEVEL HARDWARE AT COMMERCIALLYH VIABLE PRICES IN A FEW YEARS. SECOND, MANY OF US HAVE A MUCH MORE DETAILED IDEA OF HOW TO ATTACK ALMOST ALL OF THE HARD PROBLEMS IN AGI. Edward W. Porter Porter Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Original Message- From: Richard Loosemore [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:45 PM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast Edward W. Porter wrote: In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and one brighter than people by 2020. I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this list: The race has begun. (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the singularity. Its link is ___http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;p f;1_ ) I think the same guy made the same prediction when I met him at a workshop 20 years ago. Richard Loosemore - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55002167-f83028
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
On Oct 18, 2007, at 10:40 PM, John G. Rose wrote: Well after living in Seattle during the dot com craze the hype was just absolutely out of control. Yet people did get funded. Was it all worth it? Hell yeah but the hangover was pretty bad :) AGI IS hypeable but people have to make a conscious decision on whether to do so or not as without any deliverables it's going to look real bad when the investors pull out. AGI is poorly suited for venture capital in every case I can think of. Ignoring everything else, it tends to leave the venture constantly begging for capital which has serious consequences on performance and reputation. It is a Catch-22, though perhaps well- deserved. In short, traditional venture capital is a poor finance model for AGI. Which does not suggest other finance models. Cheers, J. Andrew Rogers - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55269651-199505
RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
From: Bob Mottram [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast Despite these arguments there are good reasons for caution. When you look at the history of AI research one thing tends to stand out - some people never seem to learn of the dangers of hype. Having been around for a while I've heard many individuals make a ten years to SAI type of prediction, and ten years later they were proved wrong. Being optimistic is a good quality, but if hopes are raised too far inevitably a backlash ensues (investors become frustrated/disillusioned and funds get withdrawn). I think people who are seriously interested in the technology should be more measured in their statements, and be honest about the degrees of uncertainty involved. Well after living in Seattle during the dot com craze the hype was just absolutely out of control. Yet people did get funded. Was it all worth it? Hell yeah but the hangover was pretty bad :) AGI IS hypeable but people have to make a conscious decision on whether to do so or not as without any deliverables it's going to look real bad when the investors pull out. Soo many of those dot com companies just went poof one after another it was just amazing I'm surprised that there haven't been more books written on it. But AI has been hyped over and over is it time for another round? The most recent hype has been on VOIP but that has been rather dull... but hyping up AGI? Now's probably the time - the hardware is there look at what is coming down the pipe, the OS's are there 64 bit et al, compilers, audio video, networking it's all prime time and only getting better I say go for it, hype the shit out of it - with guarded and controlled optimism that is. Also you have to think about the younger generation they deserve some time to party up. Should we hold back a couple years? Really hard to predict as other forces are viable and can potentially intercept John - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=55269332-d64d64
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
On Wed, Oct 17, 2007 at 10:48:31PM +0200, David Orban wrote: During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ. My impression is that, to a fair degree, this is already the case for the airline industry, and the retail/wholesale relationship. For decades, airlines have been slaves to thier pricing/scheduling algorithms, which figure out what to fly where and how often. Failure to obey the algorithm will bankrupt the airline in short order (witness the turmoil after 9/11, where the algo's didn't quite understand the changed nature of the marketplace). Similary, the movement of products through walmart and home depot are also controlled by narrow AI type data-mining, sales-forcast, ordering automation software. So is the loading of trucks, and the routes taken by trucks. Failure to follow the output of your sales forcast algos will likewise cause you to loose a lot of income pretty rapidly. Use of datamining and optimization algos will only increase. Manufacturing uses algos to do just-in-time parts ordering. Robots put things together, and robots wander loose in warehouses. Packing slips/bills of lading are automated, and so is billing, and accounts receivable/payable. Remember some of the Y2K fiascos? e.g. in 1995, a paint company computer decided that paint cans with an expiration date of 1/1/00 were expired, and ordered workers to dump out fresh cans of paint as they rolled off the assembly line? I heard they actually dumped some of it, until a supervisor put a halt to it. What I find more interesting is the question of whether, if, how, when, and in what way these systems might become self-aware. --linas - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=54767315-ef9e6f
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
What I find more interesting is the question of whether, if, how, when, and in what way these systems might become self-aware. Yes, Linas, you are right, that is a very interesting, and intriguing question. Your examples are also very good. Should we then assume, that since it is already the case that major industry segments and corporations are run by software, and nobody seems to mind, that it will stay like that? I think that we should still think through, together with the answer to your question, what should our position be if there were major protests against systems becoming progressively, but not yet radically, more autonomous. There are now Department of Labor predictions of 50%-80% unemployment rates due to automation of white collar jobs. This in my opinion is not a small matter either. The stem cell research in the US, and the genetically modified food research in the EU have both been frozen through political intervention because of their perceived threats. Neither of these decisions were fully informed, but very emotional. We should analyze what are the means to make sure the same doesn't happen to AGI research. -- David Orban www.davidorban.com skype davidorban sl davidorban On 10/18/07, Linas Vepstas [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: On Wed, Oct 17, 2007 at 10:48:31PM +0200, David Orban wrote: During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ. My impression is that, to a fair degree, this is already the case for the airline industry, and the retail/wholesale relationship. For decades, airlines have been slaves to thier pricing/scheduling algorithms, which figure out what to fly where and how often. Failure to obey the algorithm will bankrupt the airline in short order (witness the turmoil after 9/11, where the algo's didn't quite understand the changed nature of the marketplace). Similary, the movement of products through walmart and home depot are also controlled by narrow AI type data-mining, sales-forcast, ordering automation software. So is the loading of trucks, and the routes taken by trucks. Failure to follow the output of your sales forcast algos will likewise cause you to loose a lot of income pretty rapidly. Use of datamining and optimization algos will only increase. Manufacturing uses algos to do just-in-time parts ordering. Robots put things together, and robots wander loose in warehouses. Packing slips/bills of lading are automated, and so is billing, and accounts receivable/payable. Remember some of the Y2K fiascos? e.g. in 1995, a paint company computer decided that paint cans with an expiration date of 1/1/00 were expired, and ordered workers to dump out fresh cans of paint as they rolled off the assembly line? I heard they actually dumped some of it, until a supervisor put a halt to it. What I find more interesting is the question of whether, if, how, when, and in what way these systems might become self-aware. --linas - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?; - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=54783433-12b862
RE: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
David, You raise an imporant issue, about the danger of backlash and the need to plan how to prevent it, which has been discussed before on this thread. But it is so important it should be raised again from time to time. Edward W. Porter Porter Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED] -Original Message- From: David Orban [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] Sent: Wednesday, October 17, 2007 4:49 PM To: agi@v2.listbox.com Subject: Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast This meta-discussion, about people's opinions about AGIs probabilities of being realized within a given timeframe, actually is crucial. These opinions can shape their actions towards AGI, regardless of their correctness. As the public is going to be more and more aware of the various scenarios surrounding AGIs, as a concrete possibility, and not a science fiction or futurologist dream, the turning tide will also bring with itself a the flotsam of active resistance, towards AGIs in practice, but also AGI theory, and research. In this context, in my opinion, it is a fundamental task of the Singularity Institute to formulate sharp policy recommendations, and be ready with detailed answers to the various criticisms that will emerge. The levels of these answers have to be both divulgative, and technical, for different audiences. The criticism, not necessarily constructive, is mainly going to come from those established interests in the field public service, and industrial organizations that are likely to be disrupted by even below-human level AGI. During the Summit there was a stunning prediction, if I am not mistaken by Peter Thiel, who said that the leading corporations on the planet will be run by their MIS and ERP systems. There is no need for a qualitative change for this, and still it will potentially be a very dramatic impact on the hierarchies of enterprises, and the white collar jobs they employ. (How many middle managers are already today nothing but slow and unreliable interfaces between computer systems that would be much ore useful if directly connected?) The next generation of Facebook-type applications, applied to social systems of increasing complexity, entire countries, starting maybe with technologically friendly and not necessarily democratic ones, or just authoritarian enough, like Malaysia or Indonesia, entire countries are going to be managed and run by these systems as well. Not as a planned economy, but as a flexible, bottom-up organism that achieves a very high level of efficiency. When Christine Petersen, again at the Summit, referred to the need of managing the debate process in an intelligent manner, she expressed the feeling, in my opinion based on her experience with the nanotech field, that we must pro-actively involve in the dialog those stakeholders in society who are not technically prepared, but who will nonetheless be crucial in shaping the constraints of future's development. -- David Orban www.davidorban.com skype davidorban sl davidorban On 10/17/07, Bob Mottram [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: This is a very optimistic prediction, since 2015 is only seven years from now. It implies a highly concerted space race type of effort towards AGI, with associated funding levels and a few conceptual breakthroughs along the way. I would be cautious about claiming that conscious machines will arrive in less than a decade, but it all depends upon what is meant by conscious. Under some definitions of consciousness victory could already be proclaimed. Since we don't yet know what the neuronal correlates of consciousness are (although there are a few theories) this is a fairly meaningless prediction. Also it's a mistake to assume that because because someone works for a major company that their views are more valuable than others working in the same field. On 17/10/2007, Edward W. Porter [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: In today's KurzweilAI.net mailing list is a link to an article in which British Telecom's futurologist is predicting conscious machines by 2015 and one brighter than people by 2020. I think these predictions are very reasonable, and the fact that a furturologist for a major company is making this statement to the public in his capacity as an employee of such a major company indicates the extent to which the tide is turning. As I have said before on this list: The race has begun. (The article isn't really that valuable in terms of explaining things those on this list have not already heard or thought of, but is its evidence of the changing human collective consciousness on subjects relating to the singularity. Its link is http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 http://www.computerworld.com.au/index.php/id;1028029695;fp;;fpid;;pf;1 ) Edward W. Porter Porter Associates 24 String Bridge S12 Exeter, NH 03833 (617) 494-1722 Fax (617) 494-1822 [EMAIL PROTECTED
Re: [agi] More public awarenesss that AGI is coming fast
On Thu, Oct 18, 2007 at 12:51:19AM +0200, David Orban wrote: Your examples are also very good. Should we then assume, that since it is already the case that major industry segments and corporations are run by software, and nobody seems to mind, that it will stay like that? Good question. Its not clear that nobody seems to mind ... again, look at the airlines. There were major upheavals: layoffs, strikes, and bankruptcy filings, just a few years ago. The proximate reason was loss of profitability due to passenger declines coupled to price wars. I don't remember anyone explicitly blaming the automated pricing algorithms ... but that doesn't mean that these didn't contribute to the problem (or even lie at the heart of the problem). There are psychological reasons not to blame the algos: -- Unlike a brake failure that leads to a car crash, the failure of an algo in this way is fairly invisible, and just not obvious to outsiders. An exception might be the Long Term Capital Managemet partners, whose hedge fund ran up a 6 billion dollar debt in a week. But even then, you didn't blame the algo, you blamed the stupid nobel prize winners who created and ran it. -- What else are you going to do: suggest that the airlines stop using computerized scheduling algos, and go back to doing it with pencil and paper? There's an air of inveitibility and finality to it all. Its kind-of like the outsourcing of jobs: no one in the US likes it, almost everyone feels threatened, but what can you do? Become Amish? Decry capitalism? Once you start using optimization algos, you pretty much cannot stop, without causing even more economic damage, and nobody wants that. I think that we should still think through, together with the answer to your question, what should our position be if there were major protests against systems becoming progressively, but not yet radically, more autonomous. Stock market crash of 1987 was caused by automated trading systems. There were protests, there was outrage. The answer was to mandate certain protections and safety mechanisms. Few will complain/demonstrate/protest against system automation, at least not until there's a disaster. After the disaster, solutions will be debated and implemented. As long as the systems are perceived as non-sentient, then they will also be perceived as being under human control, and so controllable (even if the controlability is an illusion). And even when there are protests: e.g. outsourcing, or trade with mexico ... what can you do? You can demagogue, but you can't actually change the system -- because changing the system will cause more harm than good. There are now Department of Labor predictions of 50%-80% unemployment rates due to automation of white collar jobs. Ohh, where? URL? Yeah, I think low-skill white-collar jobs will be wiped out first: who needs product support in Bangalore if an AGI chatterbot expert system can do it for less? --linas - This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244id_secret=54800217-87a1b0
