subject:"AI takeoff speed"

Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-24 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

We as a species, need AI to design for us the machinery that helps us survive
and prosper. Energy, materials, space travel, carbon abatement, medical
advances that are vast.
Beyond this, if Chat_GPT5 (due out sometime?) then wants to go explore the
Milky Way on His own, we should fondly, wave Aloha, and say, "Please send back
info, on what you find? Don't forget to write! Love, The Monkey like things. ❤
On Friday, June 23, 2023 at 01:49:03 PM EDT, Brent Meeker
wrote:

On Tuesday, June 20, 2023 at 01:45:41 PM EDT, John Clark
wrote:
"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were all
more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave sharp
sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build nukes and
travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth evolutionary
landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new capabilities became
suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we should expect to be
surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."

An interesting comparison. But it avoids the obvious lesson. There was a
smooth evolutionary landscape leading to homo sapiens. What happened was that
homo sapiens killed off all the near competitors, either directly or by out
competing them in their niche. That's why there's a big gap down to monkeys.

Brent

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Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-23 Thread John Clark

On Fri, Jun 23, 2023 at 1:49 PM Brent Meeker  wrote:

*> An interesting comparison.  But it avoids the obvious lesson.
> There was a smooth evolutionary landscape leading to homo sapiens.  What
> happened was that homo sapiens killed off all the near competitors, *


You may be right but you don't paint a very optimistic picture, if true it
suggests that Homo sapiens will not have a long future.

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at  Extropolis

sxr



 "It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were
> all more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave
> sharp sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build
> nukes and travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth
> evolutionary landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new
> capabilities became suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we
> should expect to be surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."
>
>
>

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Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-23 Thread Brent Meeker

On Tuesday, June 20, 2023 at 01:45:41 PM EDT, John Clark 
 wrote:
"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus 
were all more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the 
ability to wave sharp sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the 
potential to build nukes and travel to the moon. In other words, there 
wasn’t a smooth evolutionary landscape, there was a discontinuity 
where a host of new capabilities became suddenly possible. Once AI 
crosses that border, we should expect to be surprised by how much more 
powerful it becomes."


An interesting comparison.  But it avoids the obvious lesson.  There 
/was/ a smooth evolutionary landscape leading to homo sapiens. What 
happened was that homo sapiens killed off all the near competitors, 
either directly or by out competing them in their niche.  That's why 
there's a big gap down to monkeys.


Brent

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Re: AI takeoff speed

2023-06-22 Thread 'spudboy...@aol.com' via Everything List

Based on simply recent happenings, I am guessing GPT5 will smack us. Simply
having and using an LMM maybe be Impactful on us, enough. The thinking of
Turing & McCarthy may be a bit tepid for reality.
On Tuesday, June 20, 2023 at 01:45:41 PM EDT, John Clark
wrote:

I found a very interesting article about when the AI intelligence explosion
will occur it's at:
AI takeoff Speed

I have picked out a few quotations from it that I like:
"The term “slow AI takeoff”, Davidson is a misnomer. Like skiing down the side
of Mount Everest, progress in AI capabilities can be simultaneously gradual,
continuous, fast, and terrifying. Specifically, he predicts it will take about
3 years to go from AIs that can do 20% of all human jobs (weighted by economic
value) to AIs that can do 100%, with significantly superhuman AIs within a year
after that. [...] It seems like maybe dumb people can do 20% of jobs, so an AI
that was as smart as a dumb human could reach the 20% bar. The compute
difference between dumb and smart humans, based on brain size and neuron
number, is less than 1 order of magnitude so this suggests a very small gap.
But AI can already do some things dumb humans can’t (like write coherent essays
with good spelling and punctuation), so maybe this is a bad way of looking at
things."
"It takes much more compute to train an AI than to run it. Once you have enough
compute to train an AI smart enough to do a lot of software research, you have
enough compute to run 100 million copies of that AI. 100 million copies is
enough to do a lot of software research. If software research is parallelizable
(ie if nine women can produce one baby per month - the analysis will
investigate this assumption later), that means you can do it really fast."
"Around 2040, AI will reach the point where it can do a lot of the AI and chip
research process itself. Research will speed up VERY VERY FAST. AI will make
more progress in two years than in decades of business-as-usual. Most of this
progress will be in software, although hardware will also get a big boost. My
best guess is that we go from AGI (AI that can perform ~100% of cognitive tasks
as well as a human professional) to superintelligence (AI that very
significantly surpasses humans at ~100% of cognitive tasks) in 1 - 12 months."
"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were all
more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave sharp
sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build nukes and
travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth evolutionary
landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new capabilities became
suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we should expect to be
surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."

"Sometime in the next few years or decades, someone will create an AI which can
perform an appreciable fraction of all human tasks. Millions of copies will be
available almost immediately, with many running at faster-than-human speed.
Suddenly, everyone will have access to a super-smart personal assistant who can
complete cognitive tasks in seconds. A substantial fraction of the workforce
will be fired; the remainder will see their productivity skyrocket. The pace of
technological progress will advance by orders of magnitude, including progress
on even smarter AI assistants. Within months, years at most, your assistant
will be smarter than you are and hundreds of millions of AIs will be handling
every facet of an increasingly futuristic-looking economy."
John K Clark See what's on my new list at Extropolis
bs8

AI takeoff speed

2023-06-20 Thread John Clark

I found a very interesting article about when the AI intelligence explosion
will occur it's at:

AI takeoff Speed
<https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/davidson-on-takeoff-speeds?utm_source=substack_id=89120_id=127386375_medium=email_content=share=true=true>

I have picked out a few quotations from it that I like:

"The term “slow AI takeoff”, Davidson is a misnomer. Like skiing down the
side of Mount Everest, progress in AI capabilities can be simultaneously
gradual, continuous, fast, and terrifying. Specifically, he predicts it
will take about 3 years to go from AIs that can do 20% of all human jobs
(weighted by economic value) to AIs that can do 100%, with significantly
superhuman AIs within a year after that. [...] It seems like maybe dumb
people can do 20% of jobs, so an AI that was as smart as a dumb human could
reach the 20% bar. The compute difference between dumb and smart humans,
based on brain size and neuron number
<https://slatestarcodex.com/2019/03/25/neurons-and-intelligence-a-birdbrained-perspective/>
, is less than 1 order of magnitude so this suggests a very small gap. But
AI can already do some things dumb humans can’t (like write coherent essays
with good spelling and punctuation), so maybe this is a bad way of looking
at things."

"It takes much more compute to train an AI than to run it. Once you have
enough compute to train an AI smart enough to do a lot of software
research, you have enough compute to run 100 million copies of that AI. 100
million copies is enough to do a lot of software research. If software
research is parallelizable (ie if nine women can produce one baby per month
- the analysis will investigate this assumption later), that means you can
do it really fast."

"Around 2040, AI will reach the point where it can do a lot of the AI and
chip research process itself. Research will speed up VERY VERY FAST. AI
will make more progress in two years than in decades of business-as-usual.
Most of this progress will be in software, although hardware will also get
a big boost. My best guess is that we go from AGI (AI that can perform
~100% of cognitive tasks as well as a human professional) to
superintelligence (AI that very significantly surpasses humans at ~100% of
cognitive tasks) in 1 - 12 months."

"It intuitively feels like lemurs, gibbons, chimps, and homo erectus were
all more or less just monkey-like things plus or minus the ability to wave
sharp sticks - and then came homo sapiens, with the potential to build
nukes and travel to the moon. In other words, there wasn’t a smooth
evolutionary landscape, there was a discontinuity where a host of new
capabilities became suddenly possible. Once AI crosses that border, we
should expect to be surprised by how much more powerful it becomes."

"Sometime in the next few years or decades, someone will create an AI which
can perform an appreciable fraction of all human tasks. Millions of copies
will be available almost immediately, with many running at
faster-than-human speed. Suddenly, everyone will have access to a
super-smart personal assistant who can complete cognitive tasks in seconds.
A substantial fraction of the workforce will be fired; the remainder will
see their productivity skyrocket. The pace of technological progress will
advance by orders of magnitude, including progress on even smarter AI
assistants. Within months, years at most, your assistant will be smarter
than you are and hundreds of millions of AIs will be handling every facet
of an increasingly futuristic-looking economy."

John K ClarkSee what's on my new list at Extropolis
<https://groups.google.com/g/extropolis>
bs8

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