Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
Hi Saul, Another thing I realized I wished I had added as a caveat in last night's post. There is also the issue of fast versus slow neutrons as triggers to fission. The role of the moderator is to slow neutrons so that they can be captured by materials that need slow neutrons to fission, of which U238 is one. If you have fast-fissionable material in the reactor, then the moderator isn't needed, and losing it doesn't help as a passive safety measure for those reactions. I believe that P239, created in breeder reactors, is of the latter type. I don't know details of fuel mixes in modern reactors, and how the roles of slow and fast neutrons are balanced. I expect that is in the public domain. I also don't know what fraction (if any) of reactors in Japan are breeders. The power/waste ratio of breeders is much higher than pure-U238 reactors, but because P239 is bomb material, the security problems of breeders cause them to be received very differently in different countries. I believe France runs a high fraction of breeders (something like 70% many years ago when I checked?), while the U.S. currently uses none. If the reactors in discussion in Japan have a high fraction of fast-neutron fissionable material, some of what I said last night may be irrelevant. Certainly, the lack of Carbon as a moderator/explosion hazard will still be a help, but Nick has done some research, and finds that there can be other complicated reactions involving the non-fissionable materials on or in fuel rods, which can create other burn or explosion hazards. It would indeed be interesting to know the full range of technologies in use, and what design elements to ensure passive reaction quenching, versus needs for active interventions that require the installation to be functioning well, are in play. Thanks, Eric FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
I am not sure what is more dangerous for the environment, oil spills or radiation leaks, but the NIMBY syndrome is not uncommon ;-) I guess the two main problems are a) catatrophic accidents like Chernobyl and Fukushima can not be ruled out completely b) there is no final storage place or ultimate radioactive waste repository Chernobyl happend 25 years ago, and a large region around the nuclear power plant is still uninhabitable. Some isotopes of plutonium have a radioactive half-life of a million years. I have read today in the newspapers than Japan stores the used nuclear fuel rods near the nuclear reactors, because it has no final storage place for them. The US has no final repository, either. Nuclear waste generated in the U.S. is stored similar to Japan at or near one of the 121 facilities across the country where it is generated, see http://bit.ly/dPF3Vt In Germany, a town named Gorleben at the edge of the country was selected as a storage unit for radioactive waste when the country was still divided into West and East Germany. Then the unification came, and suddenly the repository was in the center of the country, and the NIMBY syndrome appeared: nobody wanted to be the final storage place for radioactive waste. The NIMBY problem is similar to the free rider problem for public goods: in the former case, nobody wants to have the public evil, in the latter case everybody wants to profit from a public good without paying for it. -J. - Original Message - From: Gillian Densmore gil.densm...@gmail.com To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com Sent: Thursday, March 17, 2011 12:18 AM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan in the US the problem isn't just saftey it's NIMBY. (not in my back yard). I'm far far far from being an expert on whats bog standard practice to store spent rods. That being said the very few physics i've talked to have said right off theoreticly you could store spent cells just abount anywhere sighting that these days that you get more exposer to harmful radiation over the course of a cross countery plane trip than about a year of 'leaked' radiation from spent rods. IF it's politicly viable to store Japans spent rods i'd think they'd apraciat any assistance at all. As to news papers: meh. i'm not sure nuclear has THAT much of loby strength more likely that it's wall street journal taking a conservative tone to writing.(caveat: i haven't read any news papers re: the situation in japan). Just as a side note: you do realize that ironicly oil spills cause more environmental damage radiation leaks? FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
Jochen and everybody, hi, I don't know if it has already been covered on this thread, and I understand that the following comment is not central to the main theme. But to group Chernobyl with other reactor failures has one element that is potentially problematic. Chernobyl was a carbon- moderated reactor, in contrast to (as far as I know, all other) modern reactor designs, which are water-moderated in one way or another. The problem, of course, with carbon moderation is that if the reactor overheats, the carbon doesn't reduce that, and if it hits flashpoint, the carbon is inflammable and ultimately explosive. So you get this massive chemical explosion vaporizing and distributing your fuel/waste mixture. In contrast, water-moderated reactors, if they overheat, boil off the moderator. Since, in either of these reactors, the point of the moderator is to slow neutrons to an energy that can be captured for fissioning, when the moderator is lost, the neutrons remain fast, and mostly escape, which should mostly or entirely shut the reaction. This isn't as complete a quench as the cadmium absorber rods that can be used for some kinds of active control, but it should still make most of the difference that keeps the reaction within what the containment system was designed for. There are a lot of details about this that I don't know, so I don't understand what the modes are that lead to continued reactor heating even when the moderator should have been removed. This includes not understanding what went wrong in the research facility in Japan a few years ago, that led to the bubbling pot of fuel that had to have holes shot in it from high-powered rifles outside the building to sufficiently spread the material to go permanently sub-critical. For me, the most worrisome reactor in the world right now is in St. Petersburg. it is the same design and age as Chernobyl (I believe), and is not only a potential disaster for Russia, but for Finland, Sweden, and northern continental Europe. That would be my candidate for replacement. Eric FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
Everytime one of these reactors has a problem we hear the refrain: - oh that's an old/foreign/crap design which noone makes anymore - the people running the reactor are poor/corrupt/stupid/culturally different - and this would never happen to any of our other reactors the cynic in me thinks how many other badly design reactors are out there being run by people who are - either now or in the future - not up to the task? Regards, Saul On 18 March 2011 14:22, Eric Smith desm...@santafe.edu wrote: Jochen and everybody, hi, I don't know if it has already been covered on this thread, and I understand that the following comment is not central to the main theme. But to group Chernobyl with other reactor failures has one element that is potentially problematic. Chernobyl was a carbon-moderated reactor, in contrast to (as far as I know, all other) modern reactor designs, which are water-moderated in one way or another. The problem, of course, with carbon moderation is that if the reactor overheats, the carbon doesn't reduce that, and if it hits flashpoint, the carbon is inflammable and ultimately explosive. So you get this massive chemical explosion vaporizing and distributing your fuel/waste mixture. In contrast, water-moderated reactors, if they overheat, boil off the moderator. Since, in either of these reactors, the point of the moderator is to slow neutrons to an energy that can be captured for fissioning, when the moderator is lost, the neutrons remain fast, and mostly escape, which should mostly or entirely shut the reaction. This isn't as complete a quench as the cadmium absorber rods that can be used for some kinds of active control, but it should still make most of the difference that keeps the reaction within what the containment system was designed for. There are a lot of details about this that I don't know, so I don't understand what the modes are that lead to continued reactor heating even when the moderator should have been removed. This includes not understanding what went wrong in the research facility in Japan a few years ago, that led to the bubbling pot of fuel that had to have holes shot in it from high-powered rifles outside the building to sufficiently spread the material to go permanently sub-critical. For me, the most worrisome reactor in the world right now is in St. Petersburg. it is the same design and age as Chernobyl (I believe), and is not only a potential disaster for Russia, but for Finland, Sweden, and northern continental Europe. That would be my candidate for replacement. Eric FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org -- Saul Caganoff Enterprise IT Architect Mobile: +61 410 430 809 LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/in/scaganoff FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
Hi Who is going to produce the good and services that Japan is stoping to manufacture because of the disaster? My probably raw opinion is that an unfortunate event like this one, is the oportunity that US needs to reactive his economy. ¿Isn't it? Alfredo C. 2011/3/15 Jochen Fromm j...@cas-group.net A strong earthquake, a massive tsunami, a volcano eruption and an explosion of a nuclear plant. Can it be worse? http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/japan_-_vast_devastation.html Every crisis is also a chance. John F. Kennedy observed that when written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity, see http://bit.ly/fxpvlf Maybe this is a good opportunity to move away from nuclear power. Such a catastrophe could happen to San Francisco, too, anytime. What about California's nuclear power plants? -J. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org -- Alfredo FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
If you read the Wall Street Journal, then you get the impression the situation is not that bad at all, it is only unconfortable for Tepco (Tokyo Electric Power Company). If you follow the media and read the newspapers here in Germany, you get a completely different opinion. You get the impression that this is the worst atomic crisis since Chernobyl. This is what the people wanted to hear, because the majority of people in Germany is against power from nuclear power plants. I guess it started with the Chernobyl disaster, which affected Western Europe much more than the USA. Maybe the media in the US focuses on different things, because the people want to hear something else? Or is the US nuclear industry so strong that it can influence the public opinion? I think the worries are justified, it is indeed the worst atomic crisis since Chernobyl. We have seen now for the first time what happens if an earthquake or a tsunami hits a nuclear power plant directly: from a nuclear catastrophe to a nuclear meltdown, everything is possible. We have seen in Japan how dangerous nuclear waste is (a fire broke out in the reactor's fuel storage pond - an area where *used* nuclear fuel is kept cool). I think this sheds new light on unsolved problems, since the nuclear waste problem as a whole is completely unsolved, isn't it? If it is so safe to store it, then the US could store it for others. Maybe that is the solution for the economic crisis, the U.S. becomes the world's largest nuclear-waste dump. We will take your waste if you pay for it.. -J. - Original Message - From: Gillian Densmore gil.densm...@gmail.com To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 4:29 AM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan with all due respect I think it wasn't needed to troll about nuclear power. It's not perfect. Japan isn't perfect. It's a time to pool together international relief. What if a freek huricane or tornado hit new mexico? I'd hope that we'd be seeking aid reguardless of personal politics. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
in the US the problem isn't just saftey it's NIMBY. (not in my back yard). I'm far far far from being an expert on whats bog standard practice to store spent rods. That being said the very few physics i've talked to have said right off theoreticly you could store spent cells just abount anywhere sighting that these days that you get more exposer to harmful radiation over the course of a cross countery plane trip than about a year of 'leaked' radiation from spent rods. IF it's politicly viable to store Japans spent rods i'd think they'd apraciat any assistance at all. As to news papers: meh. i'm not sure nuclear has THAT much of loby strength more likely that it's wall street journal taking a conservative tone to writing.(caveat: i haven't read any news papers re: the situation in japan). Just as a side note: you do realize that ironicly oil spills cause more environmental damage radiation leaks? On Wed, Mar 16, 2011 at 4:02 PM, Jochen Fromm j...@cas-group.net wrote: If you read the Wall Street Journal, then you get the impression the situation is not that bad at all, it is only unconfortable for Tepco (Tokyo Electric Power Company). If you follow the media and read the newspapers here in Germany, you get a completely different opinion. You get the impression that this is the worst atomic crisis since Chernobyl. This is what the people wanted to hear, because the majority of people in Germany is against power from nuclear power plants. I guess it started with the Chernobyl disaster, which affected Western Europe much more than the USA. Maybe the media in the US focuses on different things, because the people want to hear something else? Or is the US nuclear industry so strong that it can influence the public opinion? I think the worries are justified, it is indeed the worst atomic crisis since Chernobyl. We have seen now for the first time what happens if an earthquake or a tsunami hits a nuclear power plant directly: from a nuclear catastrophe to a nuclear meltdown, everything is possible. We have seen in Japan how dangerous nuclear waste is (a fire broke out in the reactor's fuel storage pond - an area where *used* nuclear fuel is kept cool). I think this sheds new light on unsolved problems, since the nuclear waste problem as a whole is completely unsolved, isn't it? If it is so safe to store it, then the US could store it for others. Maybe that is the solution for the economic crisis, the U.S. becomes the world's largest nuclear-waste dump. We will take your waste if you pay for it.. -J. - Original Message - From: Gillian Densmore gil.densm...@gmail.com To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group friam@redfish.com Sent: Wednesday, March 16, 2011 4:29 AM Subject: Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan with all due respect I think it wasn't needed to troll about nuclear power. It's not perfect. Japan isn't perfect. It's a time to pool together international relief. What if a freek huricane or tornado hit new mexico? I'd hope that we'd be seeking aid reguardless of personal politics. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
Well not just that but hopefuly it's a time to apreciat the unreal amount of help asia does for the global economy. That being said offshoring is a horrible way to run the US economy. It makes it way to sustible to not just economic problems but natural acts of God! More work done 'in house' in the long run produces more job oprotunaties and ensures that companies need not unduly wory about certain what ifs: from earthquakes to just being fickle. On Wed, Mar 16, 2011 at 7:13 AM, Alfredo Covaleda alfredocoval...@gmail.com wrote: Hi Who is going to produce the good and services that Japan is stoping to manufacture because of the disaster? My probably raw opinion is that an unfortunate event like this one, is the oportunity that US needs to reactive his economy. ¿Isn't it? Alfredo C. 2011/3/15 Jochen Fromm j...@cas-group.net A strong earthquake, a massive tsunami, a volcano eruption and an explosion of a nuclear plant. Can it be worse? http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/japan_-_vast_devastation.html Every crisis is also a chance. John F. Kennedy observed that when written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity, see http://bit.ly/fxpvlf Maybe this is a good opportunity to move away from nuclear power. Such a catastrophe could happen to San Francisco, too, anytime. What about California's nuclear power plants? -J. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org -- Alfredo FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
Everything of consequence is on a fault somewhere. On 3/16/11 5:31 PM, Gillian Densmore wrote: Well not just that but hopefuly it's a time to apreciat the unreal amount of help asia does for the global economy. That being said offshoring is a horrible way to run the US economy. It makes it way to sustible to not just economic problems but natural acts of God! More work done 'in house' in the long run produces more job oprotunaties and ensures that companies need not unduly wory about certain what ifs: from earthquakes to just being fickle. On Wed, Mar 16, 2011 at 7:13 AM, Alfredo Covaleda alfredocoval...@gmail.com wrote: Hi Who is going to produce the good and services that Japan is stoping to manufacture because of the disaster? My probably raw opinion is that an unfortunate event like this one, is the oportunity that US needs to reactive his economy. ¿Isn't it? Alfredo C. 2011/3/15 Jochen Frommj...@cas-group.net A strong earthquake, a massive tsunami, a volcano eruption and an explosion of a nuclear plant. Can it be worse? http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/japan_-_vast_devastation.html Every crisis is also a chance. John F. Kennedy observed that when written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity, see http://bit.ly/fxpvlf Maybe this is a good opportunity to move away from nuclear power. Such a catastrophe could happen to San Francisco, too, anytime. What about California's nuclear power plants? -J. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org -- Alfredo FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
Re: [FRIAM] Apocalypse in Japan
with all due respect I think it wasn't needed to troll about nuclear power. It's not perfect. Japan isn't perfect. It's a time to pool together international relief. What if a freek huricane or tornado hit new mexico? I'd hope that we'd be seeking aid reguardless of personal politics. On Tue, Mar 15, 2011 at 3:17 PM, Jochen Fromm j...@cas-group.net wrote: A strong earthquake, a massive tsunami, a volcano eruption and an explosion of a nuclear plant. Can it be worse? http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2011/03/japan_-_vast_devastation.html Every crisis is also a chance. John F. Kennedy observed that when written in Chinese, the word 'crisis' is composed of two characters - one represents danger, and the other represents opportunity, see http://bit.ly/fxpvlf Maybe this is a good opportunity to move away from nuclear power. Such a catastrophe could happen to San Francisco, too, anytime. What about California's nuclear power plants? -J. FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org FRIAM Applied Complexity Group listserv Meets Fridays 9a-11:30 at cafe at St. John's College lectures, archives, unsubscribe, maps at http://www.friam.org
