Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in the capitalist class?
I have probably missed this due to recent absence, but what do list members think re the apparent divisions in the ruling class regarding assulting Iraq? i) Are these real divisions - or merely 'willpower'? Or do they represent mroe objective capitalist class divisions? ii) If the latter - What do they represent? iii) What prognosis is there for either wing? Thx, Hari
Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
In the 33-page document, Mr. Bush also seeks to answer the critics of growing American muscle-flexing by insisting that the United States will exploit its military and economic power to encourage 'free and open societies,' rather than seek 'unilateral advantage.' It calls this union of values and national interests 'a distinctly American internationalism.' Herbert Spencer, in the postscript to The Man Versus The State: While among ourselves the administration of colonial affairs is such that native tribes who retaliate on Englishmen by whom they have been injured, are punished, not on their own savage principle of life for life, but on the improved civilized principle of wholesale massacre in return for single murder, there is little chance that a political doctrine consistent only with unaggressive conduct will gain currency. Spencer's argument in Man Versus the State revolved around a contrast between two kinds of society the militant, based on command and hierarchy and the industrial, based on voluntary cooperation. A militaristic foreign policy would inevitably undermine the voluntary cooperation and laissez faire. In 1902, Spencer wrote an article titled Imperialism and Slavery. The title is self-explanatory. I expect we'll soon see all conscientious libertarians and consistent social Darwinists rise up in revulsion against this Bush doctrine. Tom Walker 604 255 4812
Re: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
At 22/09/2002 14:53, you wrote:
I expect we'll soon see all conscientious libertarians and consistent social
Darwinists rise up in revulsion against this Bush doctrine.
Why so? 100 hundred years after Spencer, angry Americans are more anxious
to bash people of different hue, colour, etc, than ever. Why, there are
people on this very list who came out in support of the Bush tactic of
bombing Afghanistan, and they are not at all apologetic, on the contrary,
they continue to argue for American exceptionalism ('perhaps Marc Cooper
has a point' etc); unfortunately, what is exceptional about Americans is
their mix of murderousness, infantile self pity and devastating lack of
self-insight.
Mark
eric hobsbawm interview
Man of the extreme century Sunday September 22, 2002 The Observer [snip] TH: So much of the current surge in history has to do with English and British identity. What came out from your autobiography was a strong affection for England and your own sense of Englishness. Do you think the public obsession with British roots and identity illustrates a fallow intellectual retreat? We seem to be returning to nation-state history and an insecurity about our identity. EH: Nation-state history is probably the most damaging part of history today since the world cannot be understood in terms of nation states. On the other hand, it's very difficult to know how to break away from it since schools are essentially geared to states. [snip] EH: Why I stayed [in the Communist Party] is not a political question about communism, it's a one-off biographical question. It wasn't out of idealisation of the October Revolution. I'm not an idealiser. One should not delude oneself about the people or things one cares most about in one's life. Communism is one of these things and I've done my best not to delude myself about it even though I was loyal to it and to its memory. The phenomenon of communism and the passion it aroused is specific to the twentieth century. It was a combination of the great hopes which were brought with progress and the belief in human improvement during the nineteenth century along with the discovery that the bourgeois society in which we live (however great and successful) did not work and at certain stages looked as though it was on the verge of collapse. And it did collapse and generated awful nightmares. I don't think that this particular movement is likely to revive, certainly not as a global movement of its kind because its particular historical moment has passed. http://books.guardian.co.uk/departments/history/story/0,6000,796548,00.html
RE: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
Title: RE: [PEN-L:30447] Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him? Herbert Spencer: ... the improved civilized principle of wholesale massacre in return for single murder... this sounds like Israel's policy vis-a-vis the conquered territories... JD
Dubya Dip?
Title: Dubya Dip? September 22, 2002/New York TIMES The Costs of Bursting Bubbles By STEPHEN S. ROACH LONDON - A year after terrorism dealt a seemingly lethal blow to America, talk of resilience and economic recovery is in the air. The nation's inflation-adjusted gross domestic product has risen for four consecutive quarters following a mild downturn in the first nine months of 2001. While the estimated 3.2 percent growth rate over the past year is subdued when compared with the more vigorous rebounds of the past, the hope is that it's a down payment on bigger and better things to come. But while Sept. 11 was a defining event for America, it was not a defining event for the economy or the financial markets. That role belongs to the stock market bubble of the late 1990's that finally popped in March 2000. There was far more to the excesses of the 1990's, however, than an asset bubble. The bubble expanded high enough, and for long enough, to have infected the behavior of consumers and businesses alike. The equity bubble helped to create other bubbles - most notably in the housing market and in consumer spending. Their continued existence poses a serious threat to lasting expansion - and yet, puncturing them raises the grave risk of deflation. This suggests the economy will prove as challenging to America's political leadership as any other issue in the year ahead. There is good reason to believe that both the property and consumer bubbles will burst in the not-so-distant future. If they do, there is a realistic possibility that the United States, like Japan in the 1990's, will suffer a series of recessionary relapses over the next several years. Yet denial remains deep, just as it was when the Nasdaq composite index was lurching toward 5,000. Few want to believe that this economic expansion may be built on such a shaky foundation. The evidence in support of a housing bubble is compelling. The 27 percent increase in inflation-adjusted American house prices since 1997 represents the sharpest five-year increase since 1945. This surge is about three times the increase in real housing rents over this period. (The divergence of home prices and rents, which usually move in tandem, is one measure of the speculative element of the housing market.) As their property values rise, hard-pressed consumers have been quick to extract purchasing power from their homes, taking advantage of low interest rates to refinance their property and use the savings to buy cars, furniture, appliances and other luxury goods. Thus the ever-expanding property bubble has become central to the culture of excess that is now driving the United States economy. The consumer-spending bubble will undoubtedly be the last to pop. Short of savings and long on debt, an aging American population must begin to come to grips with the looming realities of retirement. Yet it must now do so in an era of defined contribution pension plans whose performance has been battered by a devastating bear market in equities. We all know that Americans are addicted to shopping. Yet we also know that, if they want to retire with any kind of financial security, they must increase their savings and rein in their spending. What might cause the consumer-spending bubble to burst? It's hard to say, although several realistic possibilities come to mind - a spike in oil prices, a surge of white-collar layoffs or a collapse of the property bubble. Any one of those developments could send a wake-up call to the American consumer, thereby denying the United States and the broader global economy its main source of support. But it gets worse. The saga of the post-bubble United States economy doesn't stop with the bursting of the housing and consumer bubbles. Since these events are likely to occur when inflation is already running at a very low rate, they could push the United States into a period of outright deflation - a decline in the nation's overall level of prices for goods and services. This is a rare and worrisome condition for most economies. The impact of deflation would be most acute for wage earners and debtors. To stay profitable, companies would have to cut jobs or wages, eventually inhibiting consumer purchasing power. And the fixed obligations of indebtedness would have to be paid back in deflated dollars, squeezing overextended borrowers all the more. America is already on the brink of deflation. Our broadest price gauge, the G.D.P. price index, recorded just a 1 percent annualized increase in the second quarter of 2002. That's the lowest inflation rate in 48 years. Prices of goods and structures - covering nearly half the economy - are already contracting at an annual rate of 0.6 percent. Only in services, where price statistics are notoriously unreliable, are prices still rising. The hows and whys of America's deflationary perils will long be debated. Two sources seem most likely. First, the bubble-induced boom of business capital spending led to
Re: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
I wrote, I expect we'll soon see all conscientious libertarians and consistent social Darwinists rise up in revulsion against this Bush doctrine. Mark Jones asked, Why so? I was being sarcastic, Mark. Tom Walker 604 255 4812
Re: Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in the capitalist class?
I don't see much division, except how to market the war. Disgusting sight. On Sun, Sep 22, 2002 at 09:36:34AM -0400, Hari Kumar wrote: I have probably missed this due to recent absence, but what do list members think re the apparent divisions in the ruling class regarding assulting Iraq? i) Are these real divisions - or merely 'willpower'? Or do they represent mroe objective capitalist class divisions? ii) If the latter - What do they represent? iii) What prognosis is there for either wing? Thx, Hari -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
military keynesianism question
How effective can military keynesian be now? The US economy is very open, so much of the demand leaks out. Unlike the world of WW II, the US is not using goods that are produced using technology comparable to durable consumer goods. Instead, it depends more on very high tech, with relatively little labor demand; suggesting that it will shift wealth more toward the rich, lowering the boost to aggregate demand. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in thecapitalist class?
They are more or less sharp _differences of opinion_. They are not in any politically significant sense _divisions_. There is no set terminology here, probably because there is no very strong tradition of theory and practice around ruling-class unity/division. And I think there is a reason for that: divisions in the ruling class occur only under heavy pressure from the working-class. Divisions on the international level, such as those that led to the world wars, are another thing. I don't think the latter have permanently disappeared -- i.e. I don't believe in the theory of super imperialism or Hardt/Negri's Empire, but that is still a pretty vague area. I think predicting the outcome (prognosis) of such differences of opinion on policy among the ruling class lies in the area of contingency and crystal-ball gazing. As Mao said, Marxists have no crystal ball. Carrol Hari Kumar wrote: I have probably missed this due to recent absence, but what do list members think re the apparent divisions in the ruling class regarding assulting Iraq? i) Are these real divisions - or merely 'willpower'? Or do they represent mroe objective capitalist class divisions? ii) If the latter - What do they represent? iii) What prognosis is there for either wing? Thx, Hari
Re: Re: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
... what is exceptional about Americans is their mix of murderousness, infantile self pity and devastating lack of self-insight. Mark Exactly. Just add America's new hyperpower status to that mix and you have the most toxic combination for world calamity since WWII. Carl _ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com
Re: Re: Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in
Michael P said There are none. Carrol Said: "They are not in any politically significant sense _divisions_. ...And I think there is a reason for that: divisions in the ruling class occur only under heavy pressure from the working-class. Divisions on the international level, such as those that led to the world wars, are another thing. I don't think the latter have permanently disappeared .I think predicting the outcome (prognosis) of such differences of opinion on policy among the ruling class lies in the area of contingency and crystal-ball gazing. As Mao said, Marxists have no crystal ball." REPLY: 1) I do not think Michael - that it can be denied that there has been some domestic restraints on Bush. Mild maybe - but I think it would be erroneous to ignore them. Disgusting sight in general? Sure. But how is it so different about so much of USA history in its days of Imperial Arrogance? I agree the degree of nausea that Bush arouses is extremely marked to say the least. 2) Carrol: I have been aware of a proposed conflict presidential power between the 'cowboys' (Texan based oil) the 'yankees' (northern based financial based capital). Is this outlandish inconsistent with facts? 3) If there are indeed even minor wedges between groups of capitalists, we should be willing to recognise them - just in case there is only a marginal possibility of using them. 4) I do not know how anyone could deny current day international differences between imperialists. I know there was to--forth on this one between Chris Burford Proyect, but divisions between EU imperialists USA-UK imperialists on a host of matters since Bosnia have emerged - including now Iraq. 5) As to the Chairman's pontifications- he was surely being highly disingenuous - judging from many of his other pronouncements. In any case let us leave Mao aside. I am absolutely sure you are not suggesting that Marxists make no plans following the careful analysis of history the balance of forces - or..perhaps I err? Hari
Re:Re: Re: Forget Spencer-Bring on Ozymandias
PREVIOUS: 1)... what is exceptional about Americans is their mix of murderousness, infantile self pity and devastating lack of self-insight. Mark 2) Exactly. Just add America's new hyperpower status to that mix and you have the most toxic combination for world calamity since WWII. Carl. COMMENT: I trust no one will accuse me of singing the praises of the beast. But how exceptional is this in truth? - Anceint Greece had no interest whatever in compromise. It pursued everything to the point of self-destruction; J.Burchardt cited by Christian Meier Athens Portrait of the City in Its Golden Age; New York; 1998; p.507. - It must also be said that Athens had become its own worst enemy. Grandly as it dealt with its problems, it had long since over-extended itself; Meier Ibid; p. 510; -Perhaps the best example that shows that the USA is not exceptional - take Good Old Eng-A-Land. In the National Portrait Gallery, in London is a picture by Thomas Jones barker from c.1863: That is entitled The Secret of England's greatness - Queen Victoria Presenting A Bible in the Audience Chamber at Windsor. The benovelent white Queen bestows a bible to the handsome cheetah cloaked be-feathered be-jewelled exotic Black Warrior Chief who kneels at her feet and wondrously extends his muscular arms towards the 'secret'. But rather than reason - let Poetry bring some cheer perhaps - Intone your Shelley: I met a traveller from an antique land Who said: Two vast trunkless legs of stone Stands in the desert.Near them on the sand, Half sunk, a shattered visage lies On the pedestal these words appear: 'My name is Ozymandias, king of kings: Look on my works ye Mighty, despair! Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that collosal wreck, boundless bare The lone level sands stretch away. Ozymandias circa 1800 The New Oxford Book of English Verse Oxford 1972; p.580. Take heart. Hari
Euroland Economy: one of the weakest links
Europe Is Giving Up on Itself Stephen Roach (New York) Global Economic Forum, Sept 20, 2002 These past two weeks in Europe have been sort of an epiphany for me. The hopes and promises of the European Monetary Union (EMU) are now ringing hollow. Eleven cities later -- on the Continent and in the UK -- and there can be no mistaking the sense of despair that is gripping this region. Europe has lost its way. And with a deep sense of resignation, the Europeans know it. The summer of 2002 unmasked the fault lines in the new Europe. Three critical flaws emerged -- the first being Eurolands lack of autonomous support from domestic demand and a concomitant hypersensitivity to the ups and downs of external demand. The 2Q02 GDP report said it all: Domestic demand accounted for a mere 0.1 percentage point of pan-regional GDP growth (not annualized); believe it or not, that actually represents an improvement from the relatively stagnant conditions in the preceding three quarters. In the spring period, a modest rebound in private consumption was almost completely offset by yet another contraction in fixed investment. Given this anemic growth in domestic demand, the Euroland growth story is now more dependent than ever on the US-led global trade cycle. While the external sector (net exports) also added 0.1 percentage point to Euroland GDP growth in the second period, there is good reason to believe that this contribution diminished over the course of the summer. Thats certainly the verdict from the sharp recent fall-off in business surveys across the region. And it also makes sense in the context of weakening demand in America, as underscored by Julys 1.0% drop in US imports -- the first such decline of the year. And the lagged effects of this years appreciation in the euro can only reinforce this trend. All it took was a double-dip scare in America for growth in the euro-zone to screech to a virtual standstill. Lacking in domestic demand, disturbances in the broader global economy have been magnified insofar as their impact on pan-European growth is concerned. Can you imagine what would have occurred had there actually been a full-blown US double dip? Or what might happen if there is one in the not-so-distant future? Wrong-footed stabilization policies are a second fault line that is crimping Euroland growth. Given the covenants of the Stability Pact -- deficit constraints of 3% (as a share of GDP) -- the region is unable to jump-start its economy through fiscal stimulus. By our forecasts, Germany, France, and Italy could all violate this constraint during the next year. In large part, this outcome is a painful legacy of several years of fiscal lenience that preceded this years slowdown. But it also reflects a potentially fatal flaw in the Stability Pact itself: Rather than seek to achieve a target of budgetary balance at full employment, fiscal targets are not adjusted for the ups and downs of the business cycle. By Eric Chaneys reckoning, Euroland may well have to impose outright fiscal retrenchment in order to hit the 3% deficit target (see his 3 September dispatch, The Arithmetic and Politics of Fiscal Policy). In economists jargon, thats tantamount to a pro-cyclical policy stance -- a policy thrust that, in this case, actually reinforces the downside of the euro-zone growth cycle. A similar case can be made for the monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank. With backward-looking European inflation hitting 2.1% in August -- violating the upper limit of the ECBs 0-2% definition of price stability -- Joachim Fels believes that any monetary easing is all but out of the question over the next several months. That leaves the central bank in a very tough place -- unwilling and/or unable to adapt a counter-cyclical policy stance in an increasingly shaky growth climate. In my view, the increasing threat of global deflation suggests that the ECB needs to be more forward-looking and anticipatory in setting its inflation target. If it were to do so and come to the conclusion that the balance of risks on the price front has shifted from inflation to deflation, then it would be better able to break the shackles of its pro-cyclical policy stance. The chances of that are slim, or next to none, in our view. Hence, with both levers of stabilization policies -- fiscal and monetary -- decidedly anti-growth as cyclical deterioration now intensifies in the real economy, the possibility of a euro-zone double dip is suddenly very real. Euro-politics is the third flaw to get unmasked this summer. This is the least surprising of the three setbacks. Political risk has long been perceived as the Achilles' heel of EMU. Unfortunately, there have been numerous recent examples of politically inspired setbacks on the road to reform that threaten Euroland productivity and its long-term potential growth rate. The most recent, of course, was German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeders election-eve bailout of MobilCom -- a
In a country of S.U.V. drivers
Let me highlight this from the below article: White House officials say they have not budgeted any particular amount for a war. In any case, they say, the United States can afford it. Sabri +++ New York Times, September 22, 2002 Amid the Uncertainty, Business Balks at Spending By RICHARD W. STEVENSON and DAVID LEONHARDT Investors are getting creamed on Wall Street. Consumers are nervous. New jobs are scarce. Japan, the world's No. 2 economy, is stuck in a deflationary bog and Europe remains lackluster, providing scant hope for exporters. But more than anything else, the course of the American economy this year and into the next rests with corporate managers like Calvin A. Campbell Jr., chairman of the Goodman Equipment Corporation, a locomotive maker in Bedford Park, Ill. At a time when corporate earnings are dismal across the country, Mr. Campbell and his counterparts in all kinds of industries face risks that extend from the ripple effects of a possible war with Iraq to an uproar from shareholders demanding new standards of corporate governance. The choices they make in that difficult and uncertain environment about fresh investments in factories, computers, telecommunications equipment and other capital goods will go a long way toward determining whether the United States continues limping along at a modest rate of growth or restores itself to robust economic health. From the perspective of the economy, uncertainty is the enemy of growth, said Richard Berner, chief United States economist at Morgan Stanley. What you see in the marketplace is a high degree of risk aversion. Mr. Campbell, for one, is certainly cautious. He is waiting until he gets a clearer sense of demand from customers before investing in new cranes, computer software and other equipment. And right now, the mining companies that pay up to $400,000 for his locomotives remain reluctant to spend and are paying off previous purchases more slowly. If people can delay, they delay, Mr. Campbell said. There's a lot of caution, a lot of pessimism. Mr. Campbell's experience is common. After recovering slowly for much of this year, capital spending now appears to be weakening. If that trend continues, the economy will have to muddle along on the backs of consumers who, despite their jitters, have proved willing to keep spending. Without a rebound in business investment, economists say, the economy is unlikely to rebound sharply. But many corporate executives, seeing a lot of dark clouds on the horizon, are in wait-and-see mode. If you're a corporate executive in this environment, you face a higher level of uncertainty and more sources of uncertainty than you have in your career, said Robert D. Hormats, vice chairman of Goldman Sachs International. You face the uncertainty about additional acts of terrorism, he said. You face the uncertainty about a war with Iraq, with all the implications that holds for energy prices and a broad impact on the economy. You face a greater degree of scrutiny of corporate governance, which makes people more cautious in how they run their companies. And then you face all the questions about where the economy is going. The effects are showing. After picking up somewhat over the summer, the economy appears to be slowing again. The manufacturing sector stopped growing in July and August, according to a survey of managers by the Institute for Supply Management. And 3.6 million people received unemployment benefits in the first week of September, the highest number since June, according to the Labor Department. There are pockets of strength. Low interest rates have fueled strong automobile sales and have set off waves of mortgage refinancings, putting more cash into the hands of consumers and keeping housing and related industries vibrant. But there are also plenty of reasons for continued concern. At the top of the list is the stock market's slide, which destroyed nearly $420 billion of wealth last week alone. The decline is hurting companies' ability to raise money and is forcing individual investors to rethink everything from next year's vacation plans to their retirement timetables. Companies are also struggling to maintain profit margins, let alone raise prices. Occupancy rates at the Loews Hotels chain, for example, have returned to levels reached before Sept. 11, 2001. But with travelers more worried about costs than they were a few months ago, Loews is selling more discounted rooms than it did in the past. We were definitely seeing cautious optimism prior to a month ago, said Charlotte St. Martin, the company's executive vice president for marketing. We have seen a bit of a slowdown. Even companies with healthy profit increases do not credit the domestic economy. On Thursday, FedEx said operating income in its most recent quarter rose 20 percent, versus a year earlier, but cited overseas business and a cost-cutting program as two of the main reasons. FedEx has cut capital
Re: Re: Re: Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in
The restraints on Bush have been a suggestion that he get approval of congress and the UN before beginning the war. Going to the UN is expensive, because he has to bribe others to go along with it. I am not sure if some of the debate was not orchestrated in the first place. Once Bush agreed to go along with the Powell line, all major resistance collapsed. There was only a prior hint that the victory might bring some unwelcome consequences as instability in the Middle East. But then it turns out that Bush (i.e. Perle et al) wanted to refashion the Middle East all along. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Re: Re: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
Mark's words are the most succint analysis I have seen. On Sun, Sep 22, 2002 at 04:52:56PM +, Carl Remick wrote: ... what is exceptional about Americans is their mix of murderousness, infantile self pity and devastating lack of self-insight. Mark Exactly. Just add America's new hyperpower status to that mix and you have the most toxic combination for world calamity since WWII. Carl _ Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: http://messenger.msn.com -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: military keynesianism question
At 08:38 AM 09/22/2002 -0700, you wrote: How effective can military keynesian be now? Not very...at any rate, the market doesn't seem to think it would be very effective; have you noticed how it swoons everyt ime we come one step closer to war? The US economy is very open, so much of the demand leaks out. Unlike the world of WW II, the US is not using goods that are produced using technology comparable to durable consumer goods. Instead, it depends more on very high tech, with relatively little labor demand; suggesting that it will shift wealth more toward the rich, lowering the boost to aggregate demand. -- Yup. Joanna Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
Re: Euroland Economy: one of the weakest links
Thanks for this, I was wondering about Europe. Also, totally off the subject, are you Turkish? Joanna At 12:40 PM 09/22/2002 -0700, you wrote: Europe Is Giving Up on Itself Stephen Roach (New York) Global Economic Forum, Sept 20, 2002 These past two weeks in Europe have been sort of an epiphany for me. The hopes and promises of the European Monetary Union (EMU) are now ringing hollow. Eleven cities later -- on the Continent and in the UK -- and there can be no mistaking the sense of despair that is gripping this region. Europe has lost its way. And with a deep sense of resignation, the Europeans know it. The summer of 2002 unmasked the fault lines in the new Europe. Three critical flaws emerged -- the first being Euroland's lack of autonomous support from domestic demand and a concomitant hypersensitivity to the ups and downs of external demand. The 2Q02 GDP report said it all: Domestic demand accounted for a mere 0.1 percentage point of pan-regional GDP growth (not annualized); believe it or not, that actually represents an improvement from the relatively stagnant conditions in the preceding three quarters. In the spring period, a modest rebound in private consumption was almost completely offset by yet another contraction in fixed investment. Given this anemic growth in domestic demand, the Euroland growth story is now more dependent than ever on the US-led global trade cycle. While the external sector (net exports) also added 0.1 percentage point to Euroland GDP growth in the second period, there is good reason to believe that this contribution diminished over the course of the summer. That's certainly the verdict from the sharp recent fall-off in business surveys across the region. And it also makes sense in the context of weakening demand in America, as underscored by July's 1.0% drop in US imports -- the first such decline of the year. And the lagged effects of this year's appreciation in the euro can only reinforce this trend. All it took was a double-dip scare in America for growth in the euro-zone to screech to a virtual standstill. Lacking in domestic demand, disturbances in the broader global economy have been magnified insofar as their impact on pan-European growth is concerned. Can you imagine what would have occurred had there actually been a full-blown US double dip? Or what might happen if there is one in the not-so-distant future? Wrong-footed stabilization policies are a second fault line that is crimping Euroland growth. Given the covenants of the Stability Pact -- deficit constraints of 3% (as a share of GDP) -- the region is unable to jump-start its economy through fiscal stimulus. By our forecasts, Germany, France, and Italy could all violate this constraint during the next year. In large part, this outcome is a painful legacy of several years of fiscal lenience that preceded this year's slowdown. But it also reflects a potentially fatal flaw in the Stability Pact itself: Rather than seek to achieve a target of budgetary balance at full employment, fiscal targets are not adjusted for the ups and downs of the business cycle. By Eric Chaney's reckoning, Euroland may well have to impose outright fiscal retrenchment in order to hit the 3% deficit target (see his 3 September dispatch, The Arithmetic and Politics of Fiscal Policy). In economists' jargon, that's tantamount to a pro-cyclical policy stance -- a policy thrust that, in this case, actually reinforces the downside of the euro-zone growth cycle. A similar case can be made for the monetary policy stance of the European Central Bank. With backward-looking European inflation hitting 2.1% in August -- violating the upper limit of the ECB's 0-2% definition of price stability -- Joachim Fels believes that any monetary easing is all but out of the question over the next several months. That leaves the central bank in a very tough place -- unwilling and/or unable to adapt a counter-cyclical policy stance in an increasingly shaky growth climate. In my view, the increasing threat of global deflation suggests that the ECB needs to be more forward-looking and anticipatory in setting its inflation target. If it were to do so and come to the conclusion that the balance of risks on the price front has shifted from inflation to deflation, then it would be better able to break the shackles of its pro-cyclical policy stance. The chances of that are slim, or next to none, in our view. Hence, with both levers of stabilization policies -- fiscal and monetary -- decidedly anti-growth as cyclical deterioration now intensifies in the real economy, the possibility of a euro-zone double dip is suddenly very real. Euro-politics is the third flaw to get unmasked this summer. This is the least surprising of the three setbacks. Political risk has long been perceived as the Achilles' heel of EMU. Unfortunately, there have been numerous recent examples of politically inspired setbacks on the road to reform that threaten Euroland productivity and its
Re: Euroland Economy: one of the weakest links
Also, totally off the subject, are you Turkish? Joanna Well. Now the entire world knows that I am, how can't you? Just kidding. But I am Turkish. Best, Sabri PS: Sorry for posting this to the list. I don't get to see Joanna's address at the website.
On the US ruling class split
As I recall, Louis started this topic a while back although I don't remember where exacly. Michael Keaney sent a few supporting articles to A-List. Their URLs are below. http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2002-September/020392 .html http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2002-September/020461 .html http://lists.econ.utah.edu/pipermail/a-list/2002-September/020650 .html If they get broken due to their length, just use the good old trick of cutting and pasting. Best, Sabri
Re: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
For, if once a man indulges himself in murder, very soon he comes to think little of robbing, and from robbing he comes next to drinking and Sabbath-breaking, and from that to incivility and procrastination. Once begin upon this downward path, you never know where you are to stop. Many a man dated his ruin from some murder or other that perhaps he thought little of at the time. -- Michael Perelman Economics Department California State University Chico, CA 95929 Tel. 530-898-5321 E-Mail [EMAIL PROTECTED]
(Fwd) (Fwd) job in Labour and Workplace Studies
Subject: job in Labour and Workplace Studies The Labour and Workplace Studies Program, Faculty of Arts, at the University of Manitoba invites applications for a full-time tenure-track appointment in Labour and Workplace Studies at the rank of Assistant Professor. Core fields: Labour Institutions and Problems, Political Economy of Labour, and Industrial Relations. Specialization in one of the following: Industrial Relations, including Unions and Unionization / Collective Bargaining; Political Economy of Labour and Labour Market Analysis; Labour Process and Organization of Work; Gender, Race and Ethnicity of Work; Globalization and Work. The successful candidate must have a Ph.D. by the time of appointment and have demonstrated success in both research and teaching. (A 1-year term appointment at the rank of Lecturer may be possible for a candidate near completion of his or her Ph.D. ) The University of Manitoba encourages applications from qualified women and men, including members of visible minorities, Aboriginal peoples, and persons with disabilities. All qualified candidates are encouraged to apply; however, Canadian citizens and permanent residents will be given priority.The deadline for receipt of applications is 30 November 2002. For further information: Professor Jesse Vorst, 448 University College, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2M8 Canada. [EMAIL PROTECTED] Further information concerning this position and the full advertisement, the Program and the University may be obtained from http://www.umanitoba.ca/faculties/arts/deans_office/depts/socsci.shtml#lab -- J.I. Vorst Economics and Labour Workplace Studies University College, University of Manitoba Winnipeg MB R3T 2M8. Canada Phone (1)-204-474-9119. Fax (1)-204-261-0021 --- End of forwarded message --- --- End of forwarded message --- Paul Phillips, Economics, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2M8 Phone: (204) 474-9117 e-mail: [EMAIL PROTECTED] Fax: (204) 261--0021 --- End of forwarded message ---
Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in the capitalist class?
In this phase of U.S. "cowboy" imperialism, the problem is that the spoils of war are clearly being discussed and those segments of capital within the U.S. that do not stand to receive substantial financial windfalls are feigning opposition to the Bush doctrine. The key negotiations are over how those segments of capital will be pacified besides tax cuts, gutted labor standards/protections, tariffs, etc. Afterall, war mobilization during a period of rising budget deficits limits the available "generalized" spoils and will lead to greater public scruitiny of federal spending largesse. Bush has made it clear that access is available at the right price and the rewards will be granted at a later date. The reality of globalization, however, means that the benefits of war within the American ruling class is more difficult to calculate and, with a Bush Administration at risk for re-election, some segments of capital are concerned that their payoff may not materialize in two or three years.Robert D. Manning [EMAIL PROTECTED] From: Hari Kumar <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Reply-To: [EMAIL PROTECTED] To: pen-l <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> Subject: [PEN-L:30446] Bush Militarism- How many Divisions are there in the capitalist class? Date: Sun, 22 Sep 2002 09:36:34 -0400 I have probably missed this due to recent absence, but what do list members think re the apparent divisions in the ruling class regarding assulting Iraq? i) Are these real divisions - or merely 'willpower'? Or do they represent mroe objective capitalist class divisions? ii) If the latter - What do they represent? iii) What prognosis is there for either wing? Thx, Hari Chat with friends online, try MSN Messenger: Click Here
Germany: Election results
Are there any European friends here to comment on this? Brits don't count, Australians are OK. Sabri + Schroeder's Party Wins 2nd Term Sun Sep 22,10:26 PM ET By TONY CZUCZKA, Associated Press Writer BERLIN (AP) - Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democrats won one of Germany's closest postwar election Sunday, after a campaign that focused on fears of a war with Iraq and unleashed anti-American rhetoric. With 99.7 percent of the vote counted, a jubilant Schroeder appeared arm-in-arm with Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer of the Greens party, the partner in his governing coalition, before cheering supporters at Social Democratic Party headquarters. We have hard times in front of us and we're going to make it together, Schroeder shouted above the din. Official results showed the Social Democrats and Greens combined won 47.1 percent of the vote to continue their coalition for another four years. The conservative challengers led by Bavarian governor Edmund Stoiber, together with the Free Democrats, had 45.9 percent. Absentee ballots were already counted. The Social Democrats and environmentalist Greens won 305 seats in the new parliament of 601 seats, compared to 294 for the conservative challengers led by Bavarian governor Edmund Stoiber, according to projections by ARD public television. In Germany's closest race, a Social Democrat-led government won a 10-seat majority in parliament in 1976 over the Christian Democrats. Stoiber stopped short of conceding in a speech to rowdy supporters in Munich, but predicted that Schroeder's majority would be too slim to form a lasting coalition. Should the result not allow us to form a government, then I predict before you that this Schroeder government will rule for only a very short time, he said. Stoiber said Schroeder will have to repair relations with Washington, damaged by a new German assertiveness that emerged over American determination to oust Saddam Hussein ( news - web sites). Schroeder, whose outspoken defiance against war with Iraq was credited with giving him a late-push in the tight campaign, said he won't back down. He has insisted he would not commit troops for a war even if the United Nations ( news - web sites) backs military action. While Schroeder's anti-war stand resonated with German voters, the rhetoric reached a damaging peak in the final days of his campaign when Justice Minister Herta Daeuberl-Gmelin was reported to have compared President Bush ( news - web sites) to Hitler for threatening war to distract from domestic problems. She denied saying it. The Social Democrats already have made clear she would not have a post if they are re-elected, however Schroeder sought to appease Washington with a conciliatory letter to Bush. Washington reacted coolly indicating to analysts that a Schroeder team will have to work hard to repair the traditionally strong bond. It seems to me that for the relationship and the Iraq issue itself there's no doubt that Schroeder was trying to tap radical pacifist and anti-American sentiment in the population and preliminarily it doesn't seem to have hurt him. And it may have even helped him, said Jeffrey Gedmin, director of the Aspen Institute think tank in Berlin. Speaking on CNN Sunday, Sen. Joe Biden, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said the core relationship between the Republic of Germany and the United States is solid. What you had is Schroeder doing what a lot of politicians do, trying to get out his base. Biden, D-Del., said the relationship between the two countries can be repaired. Stoiber, who used the ruckus over Iraq as ammunition, again accused the chancellor of whipping up emotions against the United States for electoral gain. Stoiber, like the chancellor, opposes unilateral U.S. action, but he insists Germany must be ready to support any U.N.-backed action against Saddam though not with front-line troops. Greens were elated by a trend showing the strongest showing in their 22-year history. Leader Rezzo Schlauch said his party got momentum from the Iraq debate and the popularity of Fischer. We are so happy ... There was the issue of war and peace, and we have a highly competent foreign minister. It was a combination of the issues and the people in charge, Schlauch said. Some 80 percent of Germany's 61 million voters turned out Sunday casting two votes, one for a local candidate and one for a party. The party vote is critical because it determines the percentage of seats each party wins in the Bundestag, or parliament, chosen from a list of candidates it has submitted. Parliament is being downsized to a minimum 598 seats, however the complex voting system allows for seats to be added if a party wins more direct seats in a state than it is entitled under the distribution of seats based on the second vote. Even with 298 of 299 precincts reporting, the total number of seats and their distribution won't be clear until the final results are in. The
debt
Stop treating debtors as poor cows Larry Elliott Monday September 23, 2002 The Guardian The west's big economies are in trouble. Growth is stuttering to a halt, budget deficits are rising, financial markets awash with doom and gloom. When the finance ministers and central bank governors from the G7 nations meet in Washington this week, it will hardly be an ideal moment to pass round the hat to gain the world's poorest countries another slug of debt relief. Freeing these countries from their debtors' prison was supposed to be a done deal. Under enormous pressure from Jubilee 2000, the G7 agreed in 1999 to beef up the heavily indebted poor countries initiative (HIPC) so that more than 40 nations would have the prospect of a sustainable exit from debt. All that happened for many countries in Africa was a glimpse of freedom before the prison gates clanged shut again. Absurdly optimistic From the start, it was obvious that there were potential problems with the debt relief formula produced by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, because it depended on strong growth in exports being sustainable. Absurdly optimistic estimates were pencilled in for export growth, and these have had to be torn up as the stalling of world trade has led to a precipitous decline in the price of many commodities. Countries that thought they had been given an escape route from debt have found themselves back in trouble. Uganda, the IMF's star pupil in Africa, has been particularly hard hit. A paper on debt prepared by the Bank and the IMF for this week's meeting shows that coffee export revenues from 1998 to 2001 were 36% lower than expected, largely owing to a 53% decline in coffee prices. Not all HIPC countries have been hurt because some commodity prices, such as cocoa, have been rising. But the Bank and Fund know that there is a real problem and accept that some of the weakest commodity prices - coffee, cotton, copper, cashews among them - are unlikely to recover soon. Reluctant to launch a third HIPC initiative, the Washington institutions offer piecemeal top-ups to debt relief for those in most need. Unsurprisingly, debt campaigners think this is an inadequate response. A joint submission to the meetings from Oxfam, Christian Aid, Cafod and the European Network on Debt and Development says: We are concerned that levels of debt repayment after HIPC initiative debt relief are too high, undermining the necessary investment needed to accelerate poverty reduction. In the absence of radical reform, HIPC will join a long list of failed poverty reduction initiatives. Where debt relief is freeing resources for poor countries, there are signs that it is having an impact, the aid agencies say. Mozambique has introduced a free immunisation programme for children. User fees for primary education have been abolished in Uganda, Malawi and Tanzania. Mali, Mozambique and Senegal are due to increase spending on HIV/Aids prevention. But there is a long, long way to go. In Africa, HIV/Aids will leave more than a million children without teachers. In Mozambique alone, the government estimate that 17% of children will die of Aids by the end of the decade. The World Bank estimates that combating HIV/Aids will cost low-income countries at least 1-2% of GDP. Yet 13 of the 26 countries receiving debt relief are spending more on debt than on public health. So what needs to be done? The answer is a twin-track strategy which would tackle both sides of the problem: high levels of debt and low commodity prices. One measure that will be adopted this week is for the Bank and the Fund to use more cautious assumptions when making forecasts. This has been urged on them by Gordon Brown, who uses the same approach when it comes to calculating Britain's public finances. More realistic figures for commodity prices make it more likely that debt payments will be sustainable. It would though make more sense to look at debt from the other end of the telescope. The western countries that run the Fund and the Bank are committed to the UN's 2015 targets, and should use debt relief as one means of achieving them. That means debts would be considered unsustainable if it could be shown that they were incompatible with cutting poverty, universal primary education and reducing infant mortality by two-thirds. This would be resisted by hardline G7 countries as a precursor to a 100% debt write-off for the HIPC countries. That is what it does mean, and eventually it will happen. Significant gains The other side of the coin is to do something about commodity prices. In this year's World Economic Outlook, the Fund puts forward one way in which the situation could be improved - by ending the grotesque subsidies western governments give to their farmers, which lead to over-production and drive down of prices. A report by Cafod this week will say the subsidy per cow under the European Union's common agricultural policy is $2.20 a day, higher than the income of
Re: Re: Where is Herbert Spencer when we need him?
In a message dated 9/22/02 8:15:06 AM Pacific Daylight Time, [EMAIL PROTECTED] writes:
At 22/09/2002 14:53, you wrote:
I expect we'll soon see all conscientious libertarians and consistent social
Darwinists rise up in revulsion against this Bush doctrine.
Why so? 100 hundred years after Spencer, angry Americans are more anxious
to bash people of different hue, colour, etc, than ever. Why, there are
people on this very list who came out in support of the Bush tactic of
bombing Afghanistan, and they are not at all apologetic, on the contrary,
they continue to argue for American exceptionalism ('perhaps Marc Cooper
has a point' etc); unfortunately, what is exceptional about Americans is
their mix of murderousness, infantile self pity and devastating lack of
self-insight.
Mark
Comment
America's evolution is exceptional or rather peculiar, as it did not evolve on the basis of the transition from feudalism to capitalism. Rather, trading companies colonized America and agricultural production was driven on the basis of capitalist commodity exchange. America is a big country. Germany can almost fit inside Texas. America experiences change in its economic circumstances in waves affecting various states and regions in a non-uniform way.
Throughout our history large section of the population has been able to materially improve their lot in life on a generation basis, given Americas unique role as what others call a "hegemonic" force and its more than less pure capitalist development.
I of course do not deny Americas self appointed role as the world Policeman and thug. The multi national state of the United States of North America remains the enemy of the peoples of the world and the international hangman of revolution.
America of course has never experienced the devastation of war as has continental Europe. This has allowed for a more than less peaceful and smooth development of its productive forces. The notable exception was the Civil War, which ruined the core Southern states that housed the slave oligarchy.
The only class struggle that America has really known and understood has been that within capital. Even during the era of the building of industrial unions this was not the class struggle, but rather the struggle between a sector of labor and it being accommodated by a sector of capital.
Then of course the evolution of American financial and industrial capital was unique and different from developments in Europe.
I have tended to avoid the discussion of the Bush administration current drive to war against Iraq. This has a lot to do with the historic antiwar current in America and this current is very deep within the peoples of America.
I believe that it is a mistake to state that,
"what is exceptional about Americans is
their mix of murderousness, infantile self pity and devastating lack of
self-insight."
It is true that many so-called progressives and even so-called Marxist has come out in support of the war against terrorism and the bombing of Afghanistan. I have in mind Carl Davidson, one of the New Jack or rather architects of the Young Communist Movement.
Millions of people in our country are opposed to the drive to war and battling this question out daily on the Internet and in public and private gathering. We are faced with a qualitatively new development in the technology of war, which is allowing the capitalist rulers to proceed without a popular base of support. This is not to save that there is not support of the ruling class in large sections of the working class.
I respect your outrage against our ruling class. However, there are two Americas and the other American is opposed to imperial exploitation and imperial war. The Vietnamese revolutionaries always separated the policies of our imperial masters from the aspirations of the working class in America. This made it easier for the revolutionaries to fight to isolate the ruling class and the bootlicking lackeys of imperial plunder, exploitation and war.
I should point out that it is conceivable that a break in the chain of imperial exploitation is possible in an imperial center that travels a fault line out into what many call the peripheral. This is extremely probable in the near future given the transitions in the configuration of capital and the new social forces being generated on the basis of changes in the mode of production.
A break in the chain of imperial exploitation can in fact take place in the hub that holds the chain together. This means a fundamental breach in the hub that allows the collapse of the chain.
Things are more serious in America than the American peoples are allowed to glimpse by the bourgeoisie. Just last week more than $420 billion in stock market value was lost and this is going to affect corporations and the people who sell their labor to these corporations in the immediate future.
What is taking place in America is a fundamental realignment that has rendered the old
Re: Germany: Election results
Schroeder, whose outspoken defiance against war with Iraq was credited with giving him a late-push in the tight campaign, said he won't back down. He has insisted he would not commit troops for a war even if the United Nations ( news - web sites) backs military action. (do they usually send troops? is this an issue really?) Washington with a conciliatory letter to Bush. Washington reacted coolly - indicating to analysts that a Schroeder team will have to work hard to repair the traditionally strong bond. (oh please)
