[agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-11 Thread Benjamin Goertzel
Tying together recent threads on indefinite probabilities and prior distributions (PI, maxent, Occam), I thought I'd make a note on the relation between the two topics. In the indefinite probability approach, one assigns a statement S a truth value L,U,b,k denoting one's attachment of

Re: [agi] conjunction fallacy

2007-02-11 Thread Richard Loosemore
gts wrote: On Sat, 10 Feb 2007 13:41:33 -0500, Richard Loosemore [EMAIL PROTECTED] wrote: The meat of this argument is all in what exact type of AGI you claim is the best, of the two suggested above. The best AGI in this context would be one capable of avoiding the conjunction fallacy, of

Re: [agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-11 Thread Eliezer S. Yudkowsky
Benjamin Goertzel wrote: Tying together recent threads on indefinite probabilities and prior distributions (PI, maxent, Occam), I thought I'd make a note on the relation between the two topics. In the indefinite probability approach, one assigns a statement S a truth value L,U,b,k denoting

Re: [agi] Priors and indefinite probabilities

2007-02-11 Thread Ben Goertzel
Eliezer, Ben, is the indefinite probability approach compatible with local propagation in graphical models? Hmmm... I haven't thought about this before, but on first blush, I don't see any reason why you couldn't locally propagate indefinite probabilities through a Bayes net... We

Re: [agi] Betting and multiple-component truth values

2007-02-11 Thread gts
Yesterday I received from amazon.com a copy of Cox's book _The Algebra of Probable Inference_. (Thanks for the recommendation, Ben.) In his preface Cox expresses his indebtedness to Keynes, and Keynes' influence is obvious throughout. For this reason I was expecting to find somewhere