I agree with Orlando that there is no need for a conflict here. The Bayesian
paradigm provides a unified framework for decision making that integrates a
subjective interpretation of the past record and views of the future.
Further it is a paradigm that in a principled way modifies current beliefs
] On
Behalf Of Marcus G. Daniels
Sent: Friday, January 09, 2009 12:25 PM
To: The Friday Morning Applied Complexity Coffee Group
Subject: Re: [FRIAM] models that bite back
Phil Henshaw wrote:
All well and good, Â…unless something in the environment develops a
continuity of divergence
A model
Phil Henshaw wrote:
That's only in you model, and leaves out the rest of the world. My hunch
is it's good to watch the rest of the world for diverging continuities
too...
Nothing prevents a person from explicitly representing and revising
beliefs about the world in a model, especially in
] models that bite back
Phil Henshaw wrote:
That's only in you model, and leaves out the rest of the world. My
hunch
is it's good to watch the rest of the world for diverging
continuities
too...
Nothing prevents a person from explicitly representing and revising
beliefs about the world
Phil Henshaw writes:
A model invariably represents only a person's belief's about the world.
Consider surveys of undecided voters where during a debate the surveyed
turn their individual dials to indicate approval or disapproval.
The physical subject being represented is both fabulously
Phil Henshaw wrote:
And,... how does a poll, or a military analysis tell you what emotions are
going through people's minds?
Given a hunch or actual evidence that a class of emotions have relevance
to an interesting mass behavior, a poll could be open-ended, where those
polled would describe
Tom,
Some of us look to both the patterns of the past and a subjective belief
about the uncertain future when making decisions. And sometimes the way
we interpret past patterns is as subjective as our anticipation of the
future. Why set up a non existent conflict?
O
Tom Johnson wrote:
A sidebar conversation regarding the reality of models
'The story that I have to tell is marked all the way through by a persistent
tension between those who assert that the best decisions are based on
quantification and numbers, determined by the patterns of the past, and
those who base their
