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No one knows what would have happened if
But the situation in Latin America - not just Nicaragua - in 1979 into the
mid 1980's was explosive. David wrote,
" Leaving that aside is if it's applied to Nicaragua, this means...what
exactly? Not seizing power? Limiting, even against the wishes of the rural
masses and urban workers further nationalizations? What would be the point
then of the FSLN coming to power if only to topple the hated dictatorship?
In fact, the self-limitations imposed by the FSLN worked out well, huh?
Plus, Louis, you make it out to seem as if nothing else was going on the
region...like El Salvador, Guatemala, etc. I am not arguing had, as A.
Sandino suggested..."only the workers and peasants can go all the way"
...that the results wouldn't of been any different. Though we never would
know had they, the FSLN, lead the masses to just that, that an even deeper
radicalization would not have shifted the entirety of Central America
working masses to consider socialist solutions. Revolutions happen when
it's least expected, afterall."
What would have happened if the Sandinistas had gone further? Two things
are likely, much deeper radicalization in the rest of Central America and
into Mexico and crucially Colombia, AND US military intervention. Almost
certainly, the proverbial shit would have hit the fan.
What would have happened in the United States? What would have happened to
Iran/Contragate?
What would the results of such a revolutionary crisis have been? We will
never know now, but the Sandinistas and their advisers and friends feared
that they would lose.
Considering where they are now, would this have been worse? or better?
And, what if the gamble had paid off?
Certainly there are no guarantees. The Bolsheviks took the gamble, and in
the end the Russian revolution failed, but certainly without taking that
risk, no revolution in one country is likely to spread and overcome its
isolation.
The path to international socialism almost certainly lies in a series of
successful socialist revolutions in individual countries rather than in one
gigantic international uprising.
Anthony
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