Re: [UAI] Has anyone else noticed how odd many frequentist techniques are?

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Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem - Version 2

On Mon, 23 Feb 2009, Francisco Javier Diez wrote: Konrad Scheffler wrote: I agree this is problematic - the notion of calibration (i.e. that you can say P(S|70%) = .7) does not really make sense in the subjective Bayesian framework where different individuals are working with different

Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem - Version 2

I agree this is problematic - the notion of calibration (i.e. that you can say P(S|70%) = .7) does not really make sense in the subjective Bayesian framework where different individuals are working with different priors, because different individuals will have different posteriors and they

Re: [UAI] A perplexing problem

Hi Paul, Your calculation is correct, but the numbers in the example are odd. If TWC really only manage to predict snow 10% of the time (90% false negative rate), you would be right not to assign much value to their predictions (you do assign _some_, hence the seven-fold increase from your

Re: [UAI] Computation with Imprecise Probabilities--The problem of Vera's age

not - perhaps you can convince me otherwise). Regards, Konrad Dr Konrad Scheffler Computer Science Division Dept of Mathematical Sciences University of Stellenbosch +27-21-808-4306 http://www.cs.sun.ac.za/~kscheffler/ On Mon, 21

[UAI] Studentships available in evolutionary modelling at Stellenbosch University

CV (which should include information on your most advanced computer programming project to date) and a covering letter to Dr Konrad Scheffler ([EMAIL PROTECTED]). Alternatively, please get in touch by e-mail or phone (021 808 4306) to request more information about the project

Re: [UAI] A test problem involving imprecise probabilities

Hmm, no takers on this one yet? I'll rephrase the problem in a way that makes more sense to me (since the original contains words I don't know the meaning of): X and Y are unknown variables taking values in the set (1, 2, ..., n). The entries in the joint probability matrix, P, are

Re: [UAI] Is it luck or is it skill - my resolution

Hi Rich, In your analysis you present a frequentist and a Bayesian approach, arguing that the paradox exists only for the frequentist case. Fair enough. I would just like to point out that the frequentist approach (orthodox hypothesis testing) is even more problematic than that, in that it