http://lfee.mit.edu/features/hydrogen_vehicles
Laboratory For Energy and the Environment

Hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle won't reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 
2020; diesel and gasoline hybrids are a better bet, concludes an MIT 
study

Published in MIT Tech Talk, March 5, 2003.

Even with aggressive research, the hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle will 
not be better than the diesel hybrid (a vehicle powered by a 
conventional engine supplemented by an electric motor) in terms of 
total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by 2020, says a study 
recently released by the Laboratory for Energy and the Environment 
(LFEE).

And while hybrid vehicles are already appearing on the roads, 
adoption of the hydrogen-based vehicle will require major 
infrastructure changes to make compressed hydrogen available. If we 
need to curb greenhouse gases within the next 20 years, improving 
mainstream gasoline and diesel engines and transmissions and 
expanding the use of hybrids is the way to go.

These results come from a systematic and comprehensive assessment of 
a variety of engine and fuel technologies as they are likely to be in 
2020 with intense research but no real "breakthroughs." The 
assessment was led by Malcolm A. Weiss, LFEE senior research staff 
member, and John B. Heywood, the Sun Jae Professor of Mechanical 
Engineering and director of MIT's Laboratory for 21st-Century Energy.

Release of the study comes just a month after the Bush administration 
announced a billion-dollar initiative to develop commercially viable 
hydrogen fuel cells and a year after establishment of the 
government-industry program to develop the hydrogen fuel-cell-powered 
"FreedomCar."

The new assessment is an extension of a study done in 2000, which 
likewise concluded that the much-touted hydrogen fuel cell was not a 
clear winner. This time, the MIT researchers used optimistic 
fuel-cell performance assumptions cited by some fuel-cell advocates, 
and the conclusion remained the same.

The hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle has low emissions and energy use on 
the road--but converting a hydrocarbon fuel such as natural gas or 
gasoline into hydrogen to fuel this vehicle uses substantial energy 
and emits greenhouse gases.

"Ignoring the emissions and energy use involved in making and 
delivering the fuel and manufacturing the vehicle gives a misleading 
impression," said Weiss.

However, the researchers do not recommend stopping work on the 
hydrogen fuel cell. "If auto systems with significantly lower 
greenhouse gas emissions are required in, say, 30 to 50 years, 
hydrogen is the only major fuel option identified to date," said 
Heywood. The hydrogen must, of course, be produced without making 
greenhouse gas emissions, hence from a non-carbon source such as 
solar energy or from conventional fuels while sequestering the carbon 
emissions.

The assessment highlights the advantages of the hybrid, a highly 
efficient approach that combines an engine (or a fuel cell) with a 
battery and an electric motor. Continuing to work on today's gasoline 
engine and its fuel will bring major improvements by 2020, cutting 
energy use and emissions by a third compared to today's vehicles. But 
aggressive research on a hybrid with a diesel engine could yield a 
2020 vehicle that is twice as efficient and half as polluting as that 
"evolved" technology, and future gasoline engine hybrids will not be 
far behind, the study says.

Other researchers on the study were Andreas Schafer, principal 
research engineer in the Center for Technology, Policy and Industrial 
Development, and Vinod K. Natarajan (S.M. 2002). The new report and 
the original "On the Road in 2020" study from 2000 are available at 
http://lfee.mit.edu/publications under "Reports" (or see below).

CONTACT:
Nancy Stauffer
Laboratory for Energy and the Environment
(617) 253-3405
[EMAIL PROTECTED]

Reports

* Comparative Assessment of Fuel Cell Cars (2003), by Malcolm A. 
Weiss, John B. Heywood, Andreas Schafer, and Vinod K. Natarajan. <PDF 
Document>
http://lfee.mit.edu/publications/PDF/LFEE_2003-001_RP.pdf

* On the Road in 2020: A Life-cycle Analysis of New Automobile 
Technologies (2000), by Malcolm A. Weiss, John B. Heywood, Elisabeth 
M. Drake, Andreas Schafer, and Felix F. AuYeung. <PDF Document>
http://lfee.mit.edu/publications/PDF/el00-003.pdf

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