Posted by Jim Lindgren:
Real Clear Politics rates the pollsters,--
[1]RealClearPolitics.com, the best of the poll sites this year, has
rated the performance of the pollsters--both in the national race and
at the state level. [2]The state results differ slightly from the
results I [3]reported recently from Polipundit. RealClearPolitics
reports in part:
At the national level the answer to the question is pretty
straightforward. Ed Goeas's GW-Battleground Vote Projection and Pew
Research got it exactly right. Goeas's final Battleground
projection was Bush 51.2, Kerry 47.8, Nader 0.5 and Pew's final
allocation was 51-48-1.
CBS News/NY Times also nailed the final spread in the race (Bush
+3), though they didn't allocate undecideds which makes their final
less impressive than Battleground's and Pew's.
Raghavan Mayur at TIPP also deserves a mention for outperforming
almost all of the big media pollsters and coming in just a tick off
the final results with their final Bush 50.1, Kerry 48.0, Nader 1.1
projection. Scott Rasmussen of Rasmussen Reports also had a solid
final result with their Bush 50.2, Kerry 48.5 final projection.
USA Today/CNN/Gallup finished poorly this year. Ironically, Gallup
would have finished at or near the top of the list had they
allocated undecideds 50/50 like Pew, as opposed to giving what
appears to be 100% of the undecideds to Kerry.
References
1. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04_1018.html
2. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Commentary/blog_11_8_04_1018.html
3. http://volokh.com/archives/archive_2004_11_07.shtml#1099854974
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