[Here is the corrected text from the DIA report,
ABBYY version. Unfortunately, this is not the
underlying text in the version I uploaded. That
has more OCR errors. I believe there are no OCR
errors here, but I have not checked closely. - JR]
UNCLASSIFIED
Defense Intelligence Agency
Defense Analysis Report
DIA-08-0911-003
13 November 2009
Technology Forecast: Worldwide Research on
Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions Increasing and Gaining Acceptance
Scientists worldwide have been quietly
investigating low-energy nuclear reactions
(LENR)for the past 20 years. Researchers in this
controversial field are now claiming
paradigm-shifting results, including generation
of large amounts of excess heat, nuclear activity
and transmutation of elements.1,2,3 Although no
current theory exists to explain all the reported
phenomena, some scientists now believe
quantum-level nuclear reactions may be occurring.
DIA assesses with high confidence that if LENR
can produce nuclear-origin energy at room
temperatures, this disruptive technology could
revolutionize energy production and storage,
since nuclear reactions release millions of times
more energy per unit mass than do any known chemical fuel.4,5
Background
In 1989, Martin Fleischmann and Stanley Pons
announced that their electrochemical experiments
had produced excess energy under standard
temperature and pressure conditions.6 Because
they could not explain this physical phenomenon
based on known chemical reactions, they suggested
the excess heat could be nuclear in origin.
However, their experiments did not show the
radiation or radioactivity expected from a
nuclear reaction. Many researchers attempted to
replicate the results and failed. As a result,
the physics community disparaged their work as
lacking credibility, and the press mistakenly
dubbed it "cold fusion." Related research also
suffered from the negative publicity of cold
fusion for the past 20 years, but many scientists
believed something important was occurring and
continued their research with little or no
visibility. For years, scientists were intrigued
by the possibility of producing large amounts of
clean energy through LENR, and now this research
has begun to be accepted in the scientific
community as reproducible and legitimate.
Source Summary Statement
This assessment is based on analysis of a wide
body of intelligence reporting, most of which is
open source information including scientific
briefings, peer-reviewed technical journals,
international scientific conference proceedings,
interviews with scientific experts and technical
media. While there is little classified data on
this topic due to the S&T nature of the
information and the lack of collection, DIA
judges that these open sources generally provide
the most reliable intelligence available on this
topic. The information in this report has been
corroborated and reviewed by U.S. technology
experts who are familiar with the data and the
international scientists involved in this work.
Although much skepticism remains, LENR programs
are receiving increased support worldwide,
including state sponsorship and funding from
major corporations.7,8,9,10 DIA assesses that
Japan and Italy are leaders in the field,
although Russia, China, Israel, and India" are
devoting significant resources to this work in the hope of finding a new clean
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energy source. Scientists worldwide have been
reporting anomalous excess heat production, as
well as evidence of nuclear particles12,13,14 and transmutation.15,16,17
Y. Iwamura18 at Japan's Mitsubishi Heavy
Industries first detected transmutation of
elements when permeating deuterium through palladium metal in 2002.
Researchers led by Y. Arata at Osaka
University in Japan19 and a team led by
V.Violante at ENEA in Italy (the Italian National Agency for New Technologies,
20
Energy, and the Environmentthe equivalent to the
U.S. Department of Energy) also made transmutation claims.
Additional indications of transmutation have been
reported in China, Russia, France, Ukraine, and the United States.21,
Researchers in Japan, Italy, Israel, and the
United States have all reported detecting
evidence of nuclear particle emissions.23,24
Chinese researchers described LENR experiments in
1991 that generated so much heat that they caused
an explosion that was not believed to be chemical in origin."
Japanese, French, and U.S. scientists also have
reported rapid, high-energy LENR releases leading
to laboratory explosions, according to scientific
journal articles from 1992 to 2009.26,27
Israeli scientists reported in 2008 that they
have applied pulsating electrical currents to
their LENR experiments to increase the excess energy production.
2S
As of January 2008, India was reportedly
considering restarting its LENR program after 14 years of dormancy.
29
U.S. LENR researchers also have reported results
that support the phenomena of anomalous heat,
nuclear particle production, and transmutation.30,31,32
At the March 2009 American Chemical Society
annual meeting, researchers at U.S. Navy SPAWAR
Pacific reported excess energy,33 nuclear
particles,34 and transmutation,35,36 stating that
these effects were probably the result of nuclear reactions.37
A research team at the U.S. company SRI
International has been studying the
electrochemistry and kinetics of LENR since the
early 1990's, reporting excess heat and helium production. '
2 UNCLASSIFIED
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In May 2002, researchers at JET Thermal in
Massachusetts reported excess heat and optimal
operating points for LENR manifolds.39
Researchers at the China Lake Naval Air
Warfare Center in California first reported
anomalous power correlated with Helium-4 production in 1996.40
Although no one theory currently exists to
explain all the observed LENR phenomena, some
scientists now believe these nuclear reactions
may be small-scale deuterium fusion occurring in
a palladium metal lattice.41,42,43 Some others
still believe the heat evolution can be explained
by non-nuclear means. Another possibility is that
LENR may involve an intricate combination of
fusion and fission triggered by unique chemical
and physical configurations on a nanoscale
level.44,45 This body of research has produced
evidence that nuclear reactions may be occurring
under conditions not previously believed
possible. Recent results suggest these
anomalous LENR phenomena can be triggered by
various energetic stimuli (electric and magnetic
fields, acoustic waves, infrared, lasers)46, 47
and may have a variety of operational modes.
Nuclear Fusion
Nuclear fusion as currently understood occurs
only in the core of stars, in nuclear weapons, in
high temperature plasmas, or in inertially
confined high-energy collisions. Scientists for
years have attempted to harness nuclear fusion
through high-temperature plasma techniques but
have been unable to produce more energy output
than supplied. Fusion was once thought to be the
answer to the world's future clean energy needs,
but after 60 years of research still has yet to
live up to this promise. "Hot" fusion researchers
do not believe fusion can occur at near-room
temperatures based on the Coulomb barrier that
repels like nuclear charges and have dismissed
much of the "cold fusion" research conducted
since 1989. As a result, such research has
received limited funding and support over the past 20 years.
Potential Applications of LENR: The Technology Surprise Factor
LENR's potential as a future clean energy source
is still unknown. However, recent results
indicating nuclear activity and transmutation are
intriguing and pose the following questions:
If the excess heat from these experiments
could be captured and intensified, could LENR be
used as a power source for engines, batteries, or other equipment?
If nuclear particles could be generated and
transmute elements, could LENR be used to
mitigate hazardous waste or to neutralize weapons of mass destruction?48
If the various modes of energy production
could be identified and optimized, could LENR be
used to create designer materials or critical
resources that are in short supply or serve as a
tailored, "dial-a-mode" power source?
3 UNCLASSIFIED
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If rapid, explosive energy output can occur
in one or several modes, could LENR serve as a
new high-energy-density explosive?
International LENR research was highlighted in
April 2009 on a U.S. television program focused
on the 20th anniversary of the Fleischman and
Pons announcement.49 Many U.S. researchers are
collaborating with foreign scientists, but each
team has proprietary aspects of their experiments
that are not shared. Because some peer-reviewed
journals are reluctant to review or publish LENR
data due to past controversies, most results are
presented at international conferences, and
foreign scientists have access to much of the
U.S. data. In addition, U.S. experts have been
invited to brief on LENR to nuclear
institutes in India,50 Belgium, 51 and South
Korea,52 and a reciprocal visit by South Koreans
to SPA WAR Pacific to initiate collaboration is
planned. This relatively free flow of information
increases the likelihood of a technology
breakthroughas well as the potential for
technology surpriseby an international team,
especially those from countries that are devoting
more resources to this research than is the
United States, and are supported with major
corporate funding (Mitsubishi, Toyota, and Honda in Japan; Pirelli in Italy).53
The Experiments
Most LENR experiments involve electrodes immersed
in solutions of metal salts such as lithium
chloride or lithium sulfate, with heavy water
substituted for natural water. Electric current
is sent through the experimental apparatus, in
most instances producing excess heat. This effect
occurs over long periods (several hundreds of
hours), and many early experimenters achieved
negative results because they were unaware of
this incubation period. Israeli researchers used
pulsating electric fields to increase heat
production. The application of magnetic fields
has been shown to stimulate increased heat and
power. Usually one of the electrodes is
palladium, because it has a high ability to
adsorb (hold on the surface) and absorb deuterium
atoms in its metal matrix. Deuterium is an
isotope of hydrogen that undergoes fusion in
nuclear weapons at high temperatures and
pressures; it also undergoes fusion and is one of
the basic building blocks of the heavier elements
formed in stars. The Navy SPAWAR experiments used
a unique technique to place the palladium atoms
in the heavy-water solution and to codeposit
palladium and deuterium, which rapidly increases
the deuterium "loading" necessary for the LENR phenomena to occur.
A Notional LENR Electrochemical Cell (Left) and a
French LENR Apparatus After an
Unexplained Explosion (Right)54
4
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Who's Hot in Cold Fusion?
The countries with the most advanced LENR
programs are Japan, Italy, and Israel. In
addition, Russia, France, China, South Korea, and
India are spending significant resources on LENR
research. The following are among the most notable efforts:
In Japan, Iwamura at Mitsubishi has been
studying transmutation of elements in LENR
experiments and multilayer palladium (Pd)
complexes. His team includes the Japanese
Synchrotron Radiation Research Institute and
SPring-8 at Riken. Kitamura and other researchers
at Kobe University are investigating Pd
nanopowders and Helium-4 ash. Arata at Mitsubishi
Heavy Industries has worked on catalysts
containing nanopalladium. Yamaguchi at Kobe noted
transmutation using multilayered Pd samples.
Mizuno at Hokkaido is studying transmutations and
heat generation. A team led by Hioki at Toyota is
investigating deuterium gas permeation through Pd
as well as transmutations. Toriyabe at Tohoku
University is developing charged-particle
detectors for LENR. Kasagi is looking at electron
and ionic screening in LENR effects.
Vittorio Violante, a leader in the field
of Pd metallurgy and the role of surface effects
in LENR, heads a team at ENEA, Frascati Rome,
(the Italian equivalent to the U.S. Department of
Energy) performing LENR experiments. A team led
by Francesco Celani at INFN that includes
STMicroelectronics and Pirelli labs is studying
deuterium migration in nanocoated Pd for
fast-loading and anomalous heat effects. The
Italian Physical and Chemical Societies are supporting LENR research in Italy.
Srinivasan in India noted that India is
restarting its LENR program: the Bhabha Atomic
Research Centre had several groups working on
LENR from 1989 to the early 1990s. Sinha at IISc
in Bangalore is studying models for fusion in
metal deuterides. Lakshmanan at Saveetha College
is exploring fusion in sodium metal solutions.
Andrei Lipson and other researchers at the
Russian Academy of Sciences and scientists in
Tomsk are studying the emission of charged
particles during the use of electron beams to
excite palladium/deuterium (Pd/D) and
titanium/deuterium (Ti/D) targets. Karabut and
others at LUCH also are conducting LENR
experiments. A Dubna team led by Gareev is
studying nuclear fusion during cavitation and
molecular transitions. LUCH's Savvatimova, Dash,
Muromtsev, and Artamonov also are conducting LENR
experiments. Adamenko and Vysotskii of Kiev are
looking for magnetic monopoles in LENR
experiments. Kurchatov-based scientist Goryachev
is investigating LENR for alternative energy
sources and for mitigating radioactive waste.
Xing Z. Li at Tshinghua University claims 20
institutions in China are investigating LENR with
governmental support. Tian's team at Cahnchun
University of Science and Technology is
investigating laser triggering in Pd/D systems.
Zhang and other researchers at the Chinese
Academy of Sciences have studied Pd-D kinetics in LENR since 1991.
Israeli scientists at Energetics in Omer have
shown that variations in energy output can be
increased using variable frequency or pulsed
"superwaves" to stimulate LENR effects.
The French Atomic Energy Agency had an official
LENR program from 1997 to 1999. EDF also had one
for several years. Currently, Jean-Paul Biberian
from the Universite Marseille and Jacques Dufour
at CNAM are working on LENR in France.
Jan Marwan of Dr. Marwan Chemie in Berlin,
Germany, is studying the nanostructure of
palladium hydride systems. Huke and others from
the Technische Universitat Berlin are working
with Czerski in Poland and Ruprecht in Canada on
electron screening mechanisms for deuteron fusion.
5
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Outlook and Implications
If nuclear reactions in LENR experiments are real
and controllable, DIA assesses that whoever
produces the first commercialized LENR power
source could revolutionize energy production and
storage for the future. The potential
applications of this phenomenon, if
commercialized, are unlimited. The anomalous LENR
effects seen in these metal lattices containing
deuterium may also have as-yet undetermined
nanotechnology implications. LENR could serve as
a power source for batteries that could last for
decades, providing power for electricity,
sensors, military operations, and other
applications in remote areas, including space.
LENR could also have medical applications for
disease treatment, pacemakers, or other
equipment. Because nuclear fusion releases 10
million times more energy per unit mass than does
liquid transportation fuel, the military
potential of such high-energy-density power
sources is enormous. And since the U.S. military
is the largest user of liquid fuel for
transportation, LENR power sources could produce
the greatest transformation of the battlefield
for U.S. forces since the transition from horsepower to gasoline power.
Prepared by: Beverly Barnhart, DIA/DI, Defense
Warning Office. With contributions from: Dr.
Patrick McDaniel, University of New Mexico; Dr.
Pam Mosier-Boss, U.S. Navy SPAWAR/Pacific; Dr.
Michael McKubre, SRI International; Mr. Lawrence
Forsley, JWK International; and Dr. Louis DeChiaro, NSWC/Dahlgren.
Coordinated with DIA/DRI, CPT, DWO, DOE/IN, US
Navy SPAWAR/Pacific and U.S. NSWC/Dahlgren, VA.
1 Bockris. John. 'The History of the Discovery of
Transmutation at Texas A&M University," paper presented at the
10th International Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF), Cambridge, MA, 2003.
214th International Conference on Cold Fusion
(ICCF). Washington. DC, 10-15 August 2008.
3 The number of protons in the nucleus of an atom
determines the identity of the chemical element.
Nuclear transmutation occurs when the number of
protons in the nucleus is changed by adding or
removing protons or converting them to other
nuclear particles. Thus transmutation changes one
chemical element into another through a nuclear process.
4 Benedict, M., T. Pigford. and H. Levi, "Nuclear
Chemical Engineering." McGraw Hill Series in Nuclear Engineering, 1981.
5 Hecker, S., "Plutonium, A Historical Overview,"
Challenges in Plutonium Science, Vol. 1, Los
Alamos, National Laboratory. No. 26, 2000.
6 Journal of Electroanalytical Chemistry, Vol. 261. 263, 287. pp 187, 301, 293.
7 DeChiaro. Louis, "Recent Progress in Low Energy
Nuclear Reactions, "briefing prepared by NAVSEA.
Dahlgren, for DDR&E, 28 August. 2009.
8 Iwamura, Yashiro, et al.. 'Transmutation
Reactions Induced by D? Gas Permeation Through Pd
Complexes (Pd/CaO/Pd), "14lh International
Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF). Washington. DC, 10-15 August 2008.
9 Hioki, Tatsumi, et al., "Influence of Deuterium
Gas Permeation on Surface Elemental Change of
Ion-Implanted Pd," 14lh International Conference
on Cold Fusion (ICCF). Washington, DC, 10-15 August 2008.
10 Celani. Francesco, et al., "Deuteron
Electromigration in Thin Pd Wires Coated with
Nano-Particles: Evidence for Ultra-Fast Deuterium
Loading and Anomalous, Large Thermal Effects,"
14th International Conference on Cold Fusion
(ICCF). Washington, DC, 10-15 August 2008.
6
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11 "Exciting New Science; Potential Clean
Energy," Abstracts. 14* International Conference
on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science and
International Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF).
Washington, DC. 10-15 August 2008. 12
Mosier-Boss, et al. 'Triple Tracks in CR-39 as
the Result of Pd/D Co-deposition: Evidence of
Energetic Neutrons," Naturwissenschaften, 96.
2009. 135-142. Mosier-Boss. et al.. Navy SPAWAR
briefing. American Chemical Society annual meeting. March 2009.
14 "Exciting New Science: Potential Clean
Energy." Abstracts. 14* International Conference
on Condensed Matter Nuclear Science and
International Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF).
Washington. DC. 10-15 August 2008.
15 Transmutations only occur when nuclear
particles interact and are exchanged to produce different elements.
16 Iwamura. Yashiro. et al., 'Transmutation
Reactions Induced by D2 Gas Permeation Through Pd
Complexes (Pd/CaO/Pd) 14th Internationa]
Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF), Washington. DC, 10-15 August 2008.
17 Yamaguchi. Tatsuya, et al.. "Investigation of
Nuclear Transmutation Using Multilayered CaO/X/Pd
Samples Under Deuterium Permeation." 14*
International Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF).
Washington, DC, 10-15 August 2008.
18 Iwamura, Yashiro, et al., "Elemental Analysis
of Pd Complexes: Effects of Di Gas Permeation,"
Japan Journal oj Applied Physics, Vol 41. 2002, pp. 4642-4650.
19 Arata, Y.. "Anomalous Effects in Charging of
Pd Powders with High Density Hydrogen Isotopes,"
Physics Letters A, 373,2009. pp 3109-3112.
20 Violante. V. et al.. "On the Correlation of
PdD Alloy Material Properties with the Occurrence
of Excess Power." briefing presented at 14lh
International Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF).
Washington. DC. 10-15 August 2008.
21 Prelas. M.A., et al., "A review of
Transmutation and Clustering in Low Energy
Nuclear Reactions," briefing presented at Vice
Chancellor for Research Seminar on LENR, University of Missouri. May 2009.
22 Briefings presented at Navy SPAWAR San Diego.
LENR meeting. 4-5 August. 2009.
23 Mosier-Boss, et al. 'Triple Tracks in CR-39 as
the Result of Pd/D Co-deposition: Evidence of
Energetic Neutrons," Naturwissenschaften, 96, 2009. 135-142.
24 Mizuno. Tadahiko, "Neutron Emission Induced by
Nuclear Reaction in Condensed Matter." briefing
presented at Vice Chancellor for Research Seminar
on LENR. University of Missouri. May 2009.
25 Zhang, et al.. "On the Explosion in a
Deuterium/Palladium Electrolytic System," Third
International conference on Cold Fusion. 1992. Nagoya. Japan.
26 Biberian. Jean-Paul. "Unexplained Explosion
During an Electrolysis Experiment in an Open Cell
Mass flow Calorimeter." Journal of Condensed
Matter, Nuclear Science, 2 (2009) pp. 1-6.
27 Zhang, et al. "On the Explosion in a
Deuterium/Palladium electrolytic System." Third
International conference oi Cold Fusion. 1992. Nagoya. Japan.
28 Lesin. et al.. "Ultrasonically-Excited
Electrolysis Experiments at Energetic
Technologies." Energetics Technologies. Omer.
Israel, briefing presented at 14lh International
Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF). Washington DC. 10-15 August 2008
29 Jayaraman. K.S.. "Cold Fusion is Hot Again."
Nature India, 2008. Published online 17 Jan 2008.
http://www.Ienr canr.org/acrobat/JayaramanKcoldfusion.pdf
30 Mosier-Boss. et al.. multiple briefings
presented at Navy SPAWAR Pacific. August 4-5. 2009.
31 McKubre. Michael. "Studies of the
Fleischmann-Pons Effect at SRI International."
briefing presented at Vice Chancellor for
Research Seminar on LENR University of Missouri.
May 2009. 32 Spzak. Stan, et al.. "Evidence of
Nuclear Reactions in the Pd Lattice." Naturwissenschaften, 92. 2005. 394-397.
33 Szpak. Stan, et al.. 'Thermal Behavior of
Polarized Pd/D Electrodes Prepared by
Co-Deposition." Thennochimicc Acta. 410. 2004. 101-107.
34 Mosier-Boss. et al., 'Triple Tracks in CR-39
as the Result of Pd/D Co-deposition: Evidence of
Energetic Neutrons." Naturwissenschaften, 96. 2009. 135-142.
35 Spzak. Stan, et al.. "Evidence of Nuclear
Reactions in the Pd Lattice."
Naturwissenschaften, 92. 2005. 394-397. 36 The
identity of a chemical element is determined by
the number of protons in its atomic nucleus.
Transmutation occurs when one chemical element is
changed into another one. This normally occurs
during radioactive decay, but can occur from any
number of nuclear processes that add or subtract
protons from the atomic nucleus.
37 Mosier-Boss. et al.. Navy SPAWAR briefing.
American Chemical Society annual meeting. March
2009. 38 McKubre. Michael. "Studies of the
Fleischmann-Pons Effect at SRI International."
briefing presented at Vice Chancellor for
Research Seminar: Excess Heat and Particle Tracks
from Deuterium-Loaded Palladium. University of Missouri. 29 May 2009.
7
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39 Swartz. Mitchell, et al., 'The Impact of Heavy
Water (D2O) on Nickel-Light Water Cold Fusion
Systems," Proceedings of the 9lh International
Conference on Cold Fusion, ICCF-9. Condensed
Matter Nuclear Science. May 19-24, 2002. Beijing.
China, Tsinghua University Press. 2003. pp 335-342.
40 Miles. Melvin, et al "Anomalous Effects in
Deuterated Systems," Final Report. NAWCWPNS TP
8302. Naval Air Warfare Center Weapons Division. 1996.
41 Hagelstein. Peter and Man Chaudhary.
"Modeling Excess Heat in the Fleischmann-Pons
Experiment." briefing presented at Vice
Chancellor for Research Seminar on LENR, University of Missouri. May 2009.
42 Olenik. V.P. and Yu. D. Arepjev, "Physical
Mechanism of Nuclear Reactions at Low Energies."
National Technical University of Ukraine. Kiev Polytechnic Institute
43 Srivastava. Y.N., O. Panella. A. Widom.
"Instability of the Perturbation Theoretical
Chromodynamic Vacuum." LANL web site. arXiv:0811.3293vi 20 Nov 2008.
44 Hagelstein, Peter. MIT. Briefing. Navy SPA WAR Pacific, August 2009..
45 McDaniel. Patrick. "Electrochemically Induced
Nuclear Reactions." briefing, presented at Navy SPAWAR Pacific. August 2009.
46 Sinha. K.P. and A.Meulenberg. "Laser
Stimulation of Low-Energy Nuclear Reactions in
Deuterated Palladium," Current Science, Vol.91,
No.7, 10 October, 2006, pp. 907-912
47 Lesin, et al., "Ultrasonically-Excited
Electrolysis Experiments at Energetic
Technologies," Energetics Technologies, Omer.
Israel, briefing presented at 14lh International
Conference on Cold Fusion (ICCF), Washington, DC, 10-15 August 2008.
48 Tsvetkov., S.A., "'Possibility of Using Cold
Fusion for Nuclear Waste Products Transmutation,"
!0th International Conference on Cold Fusion,
Cambridge, MA, 2003.from LENR-CANR.org website.
49
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/17/60minutes/main4952167.shtml?tag=contentMain:contentBody
50 Personal correspondence. Dr. Michael McKubre.
SRI International. October. 2009.
51 Forsley. L.. "Lattice Assisted Nuclear
Reactions: Overview of an Unexpected Phenomena."
First Colloquium on Nano-Nuclear Science
I'Universite catholique de Louvain, Belgium. May 4-5. 2009.
52 Personal correspondence. Mr. Lawrence Forsley.
JWK International. October. 2009.
53 In Japan, the three major automakers are
supporting LENR research. In Italy. Pirelli Labs
is one of many corporate and governmental sponsors of LENR research.
54 Biberian. Jean-Paul. "Unexplained Explosion
During an Electrolysis Experiment in an Open Cell
Mass flow Calorimeter." Journal of Condensed
Matter, Nuclear Science, 2 (2009) pp. 1-6.
8
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