On Jan 31, 2013, at 8:57 AM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
Edmund Storms <stor...@ix.netcom.com> wrote:
What is worse, the nature of the problem is too technical and
complex for most people to understand.
In the past, all problems were too complex for anyone to understand.
In 1700 people did not even know that oxygen exists, and yet they
ran giant cities, iron mills and so on.
That is true Jed, but the people making the decisions then were not
the ordinary people. The decision makers were generally educated and
were the most informed of the population. Now the ordinary person with
their limited education elects people of equal ignorance to make
decisions, at least in the US.
The trend is toward better understanding. We are learning more and
more about our problems, and we have Big Data to account for things.
(Big Data meaning more bytes of data than there grains of sand on
all the beaches of Earth.)
Yes, a lot more information is available. Unfortunately, it is too
much for most people to acquire. Even in the CF field, most people
have no awareness about all that is known. When the time comes to make
basic decisions about how this phenomenon is developed, you can be
sure most of the understanding will be ignored, as is presently the
case.
This suggests still another problem. Has modern life become too
complex for mankind to control?
In many important ways, modern life is simpler than life used to be,
and more comprehensible.
For you maybe. I once could take a car apart and reassemble it. Now I
have no idea how a car functions and cannot even make minor repairs.
Have you ever tried to repair a computer? Life is simpler only because
automatic controls keep the house at constant temperature, I can buy
fresh food in all seasons, and I do not have to leave the house to be
entertained. However, if the power goes off, I'm totally lost. If I
lived in a high-rise apartment in a city, I would be trapped. The
storm "Sandy" showed just how essential this one energy is to modern
civilization. We are putting an increasing number of eggs in one
basket, which makes life "simpler" as long is it functions as expected.
Many things that were completely beyond our control are now well
understood and controlled. Many things that were unpredictable are
now predicted.
Yes, many things can be predicted. The problem is getting people to
respond to the predictions.
Such as the weather. In 1938 a giant storm destroyed Long Island and
killed 600 of people because no one knew it was coming. Last year's
storm killed very few people because everyone could see it was coming.
Being able to see the weather from space has made a big difference.
Fewer people die, which is good. Nevertheless, people build homes
where they will be flooded or blown away even when this fate is certain.
Are we nearing the end when the consequences of technology will
overwhelm man's ability to respond properly? Or is this too
pessimistic?
Much too pessimistic, and totally at odds with the trends of history.
Which trends? Yes, mankind in local areas has advanced and in other
areas has regressed. It all depends on where you live.
The last 400 years of technological and scientific progress have
given us God-like knowledge and control over nature.
That is true. But as they say, power creates arrogant, God-like power
creates God-like arrogance.
There is no reason to think this trend will not continue. Our
ability to respond has increased beyond all imagination. There is
not a single technical reason why we cannot:
The technical reason is in the human brain and its limitations. We
have amazing tools and understanding. Our brain applies these tools
and understanding. I'm observing that most brains do not have the
ability to do this without causing problems. Take the mortgage melt
down in 2008 and following, do you think any intelligence was used by
the financial industry. Yet these people almost collapsed the
financial system of the West, which has led to the present financial
situation. Stupid people now have the power to stop civilization in
its tracks.
* Eliminate fossil fuels and CO2 production, in a generation.
You are assuming that CF is accepted and it actually works as expected.
* Reduce other pollution by a factor of 10.
Yes, reduced pollution is possible in some areas but not in all. As
long as oil is extracted and transported, it will produce local
pollution. As long as fission power is used, it will create local
pollution. These are obvious predictions you ignore.
* Recycle most solid waste, with robot labor.
I agree, this is being done increasingly.
* Transfer agriculture to indoor factories, freeing up land. We
could produce ALL of the plant food consumed by people and domestic
animals in North America in an area the size of greater New York
City. By the time we got 10% toward that goal, the cost of food
would be cheaper than it is from today's outdoor agriculture.
I agree, the high-cost and special foods will be increasingly grown
this way. However, a lot of "food" is used for industrial purposes to
make plastic and industrial chemicals. Ethanol is one obvious example.
I expect these will stay outdoors.
The technological solutions already exist, even without cold fusion.
We lack only the will and the imagination to use them.
Yes, that is EXACTLY my point. The problem is in the human brain.
All of the environmental problems we face -- and all poverty and
lack of education -- are caused by human failings.
Exactly!!
By foolish greed, fear, politics and lack of imagination. Science
and engineering have not failed us.
No, they have not failed us, but they have provided tools that can be
used to destroy us if used by the less than smart brains. We are
presently being subjected to a debate about guns, one of the tools I
refer to. The debate shows no awareness of how this problem can be
solved. We debate GW without any understanding of the problem, all
done with great certainty and emotion. Meanwhile people get shot and
the oceans rise. The problem is not limitations of technology - we
are seeing the limitations of the brain.
We have failed to use the fruits of our imagination. We have failed
to use people's talents and skills.
Yes, and how can this problem be solved?
Ed
Since we managed to solve countless problems in the past, I am
certain we can solve these problems now. I am not sure we will solve
them, but I am sure that we can.
- Jed
