On Fri, Apr 19, 2013 at 8:08 PM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote:
> James Bowery <jabow...@gmail.com> wrote: > > >> The null hypothesis upon which to base the control experiment: Even >> though a placebo effect may be present and in fact much larger . . . >> > > This is drifting off topic, so let me rename the header. > > I do not think the placebo effect exists. I read several papers years ago > about this. I do not have time to go into the details but anyway, it was a > mistake many decades old. Sloppy statistics and untested assumptions led > people to think there is a placebo effect -- > > That is, an effect in which a prognosis improves because the patients > think they are being treated when they are actually taking by fake medicine > (something with no efficacy). One hypothesis is that people respond well > because they think the doctor cares for them or is concerned about their > well-being. > > Another theory is that if the patient believes the pill is effective, it will be effective. > This was tested in recent decades by dividing patients into two groups. > One group is given a placebo and treated with kindness. The other is > dismissed and sent home with nothing. The two groups recover at the same > rate, with the same percent reporting success. The placebo and the > treatment have no effect on the outcome. > > what was the malady? > It is a fact that people often get better on their own. Nature cures many > diseases. This fact clouded the issue and made doctors think that a placebo > was curing people almost as well as some drugs. Or if not that well, it was > curing them in significant numbers. They were comparing a drug that was > supposedly effective against a control group of people who got a fake drug. > What they should have done instead of this -- or in addition to this -- > would be to compare the drug against a control group of people who get > nothing. No fake drug, no sympathy. They would see that many of them also > get better. > > > > Maybe this disproves the theory that belief in a pill can be effective, but there are all sorts of mind states that do contribute to well being. Harry
