We have seen such a change in our society with the industrial revolution, when less people were needed to feed the others... what happen ? they moved to factory... it was hard at the beginning, huge poverty, social struggle, marxism, paternalism, social security, and in the 60s it was working well and providing wealth and vacations, leisure and retirements... then productivity in western world stop growing, and worst of all, education is not matching needs...
my vision of work is that the factory work will die. On one side you will have huge creative, scientific, strategic position with a minority of not only educated but exceptionally smart workers... There will be also physically exceptional workers, like artist, craftsmen, sportsmen, emergency operators. The robots , the computers, will do all that need moderate dexterity, moderate intelligence, moderate understanding... They will replace the administrative capacities of office workers, the factory workers, most of the builders... even the cleaning of houses, the security checking, the cops, the guardians, the nurses, will be replaced for their less human part of the job. a class of job that I see being developed, but with huge problem of competence, if the one where humanity is the key competence. Where kindness, politeness, empathy, hearing and understanding, daily imagination is the only competence required. I see in France that it is the huge problem, and if you compare to developing countries you see a huge lack of competence. there is a problem in education here about human factors, empathic education. We learn critic, manipulation, analysis, to deven our right or attack others, to order, manage but not to be kind, to accept critics, insults, to submit to others. When you have to help citizen to fill a form (on a computer), when you help a client to choose his drink, when you help an elderly nasty woman to eat and wash, human competences are more important than technical knowledge. a last mass of job will be new jobs, and maybe it is the one who are missing , it is probably linked to leisure, tourism, and other pleasant and useless activities. they are developing, but the economic crisis, linked to energy price and unemployment, does not allow those job to exist. The problem is not that there is no job, because it would mean vacation (not unemployment), it is that some people have needs that some others cannot fulfill. We often focus on the top genius workers, and it is not false. Xavier Niel and many others remind us that very few people are enough to inspire the permanence revolution of innovations, but that our mass education is cutting the heads that are above average... We are producing standardized high-executive, but not the crazy Steve Jobs, the Edison, the Tesla, the Columbus... This idea is pushed also by Taleb. I add to that that for the rest of the population, we still propose them competence for a middle level work which is taken by computers and robots. And worst of all we give them dream and rigidity which make them unable to adapt to the real new jobs, who are hard, to manage other humans in distress. For the leisure/tourism works it may put oil in the system, with people happy to replace robots and work hard for what they love... like it happens today for many high-level works. but there will be need of courageous people to interact with humans in distress. Normally this kind of jobs should be well paid in the future, like the job of football players or engineers. The problem is that our sociological rigidity prevent to pay those hard work at their real price (because they are linked to lower education, and to people having no other choice). finally I repeat it, increase of productivity does not mean unemployment. What cause unemployment is mismatched competence. the problem of unemployment is not work, it is wages, thus buying capacity, and buying capacity is the result of work multiplied by productivity. Their can be a distribution (not of money, but of goods and services, forget wealth, look at life style), but normally some social violence can force changes. Problem is when there is few to share, because many people cannot participate (enough) to produce. 2013/7/29 OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson <orionwo...@charter.net> > From Blaze:**** > > ** ** > > > Our entire economic system is based on this thing called money. **** > > > It's how we value opportunities. I'm not a materialist, but**** > > > I do appreciate having this objective measurement.**** > > ** ** > > As to I, to a certain extent.**** > > ** ** > > > Is it perfect? Obviously not. But it'll have to do until something**** > > > better comes along.**** > > ** ** > > I agree. **** > > ** ** > > FYI, there have been some interesting Vort threads that have discussed the > ramifications of our current economic engine (including Jed Rothwell) and > how it is likely to be drastically affected as computerization, automation, > and artificial intelligence continue their relentless drive to take over > traditional jobs. The Vort Collective has debated on numerous occasions how > in the near future we might go about distributing the wealth, aka > "currency", throughout the population in what is hopefully a fair and > equitable way. **** > > ** ** > > What many futurists have been asking is: how will we go about earning our > daily bread when most of the traditional jobs are being performed more > efficiently and cheaply by robots and other forms of automation? The > automation issue is, of course, an old issue, one that has been with us > since the first machines were developed and introduced to replace mass > labor well over a hundred years ago. Fortunately, what has always happened > in the past is that new kinds of jobs... new kinds of services and product > development were created that ended up replacing most of the traditional > jobs that had been taken over by the scourge of automation. However, the > transformation often seems to have been a bumpy process, one fraught with > pesky political overtones. On this matter, I suspect we haven't seen nuth'n > yet! Stay tuned.**** > > ** ** > > On a more positive note, many assume (as do I) that new kinds of jobs will > continue to manifest through the mysterious laws known as emergent > behavior. I believe all sorts of new kinds of jobs are likely come into > being in order to fill new needs that don't yet exist. **** > > ** ** > > But are such assumptions right? I hope so, but I really don't know. Many > futurists worry about this issue. A major concern many have voiced is the > obvious fact that these days the pace of automation is increasing > exponentially. Will our society and the mysterious and unpredictable > behavioral laws of emergent behavior be capable of handling the changes and > develop enough new jobs to absorb all who have been displaced? **** > > ** ** > > In the end some Vort members have speculated that the world's economic > engine may end up having to simply give everyone an "allowance" of > spendable currency to ensure that wealth can be evenly distributed > throughout the population. Of course, how does one determine how much > allowance everyone should get is likely to be a raunchy debate. For > example, should there be a cap on how much any individual's "allowance" can > be? And what about a minimum amount for the disadvantaged who are not > capable of doing anything useful.**** > > ** ** > > In the meantime, I suspect there is a bright future for gambling. I > suspect your chosen profession will not in danger of becoming obsolete. ;-) > **** > > ** ** > > For more info read "Lights in the Tunnel", as Mr. Rothwell has often > suggested here.**** > > ** ** > > http://www.thelightsinthetunnel.com/**** > > ** ** > > Regards,**** > > Steven Vincent Johnson**** > > svjart.OrionWorks.com**** > > www.zazzle.com/orionworks**** > > tech.groups.yahoo.com/group/newvortex/**** >
