http://phys.org/news/2014-08-southwest-megadrought-century.html
No matter how it is caused, the residences of the west coast will need to adapt. Due to global warming, scientists say, the chances of the southwestern United States experiencing a decadelong drought is at least 50 percent, and the chances of a "megadrought" – one that lasts up to 35 years – ranges from 20 to 50 percent over the next century. The study by Cornell, University of Arizona and U.S. Geological Survey researchers will be published in a forthcoming issue of the American Meteorological Society's *Journal of Climate*. "For the southwestern U.S., I'm not optimistic about avoiding real megadroughts," said Toby Ault, Cornell assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences and lead author of the paper. "As we add greenhouse gases into the atmosphere – and we haven't put the brakes on stopping this – we are weighting the dice for megadrought." Ault said that the West and Southwest must look for mitigation strategies to cope with looming long-drought scenarios. "This will be worse than anything seen during the last 2,000 years and would pose unprecedented challenges to water resources in the region," he said. On Tue, Aug 26, 2014 at 2:57 PM, David Roberson <dlrober...@aol.com> wrote: > Axil, There is plenty of reason the believe that the earth is on an > overall warming cycle. We can be fairly confident that one day it will > reverse and we will be facing a new ice age since this has happened over > and over again according to the best historical measurements. No doubt > that polar ice contributes to the process along with countless other > natural and man made phenomena. > > When the next ice age begins is clearly debatable and I hope that we have > many years before that devastating event comes upon us. So far I have not > heard a great deal of noise from the global warming crowd suggesting that > the current warming period will encourage the return of the cold that is so > dangerous to our existence. It is only a matter of time before this > becomes a rallying cry of that group of alarmists. They will get my > attention at that point provided their models begin to demonstrate accurate > predictions without needing serious corrections every few years. > > We should resist the urge to put our lives and economies into the hands of > this group until and if their predictions can be shown to be trustworthy. > It may well turn out that what they are attempting is intractable and not > subject to accurate modeling. What they contend to be caused by man might > merely be a natural consequence of the earths response to solar and cosmic > driving forces. Sometimes it is very difficult to separate cause and > effect. > > The development of LENR systems will come around soon and that will > rapidly reduce the dependence upon fossil fuels and additional warming gas > releases needed to supply our energy future demands. Lets reserve our > concerns about what may or may not happen in 100 years under the current > conditions and realize that our species has been quite adaptable in the > past and will find a solution to any problems that arise. The scientific > understanding that will develop during that period will appear as magic to > us. > > Dave > > > -----Original Message----- > From: Axil Axil <janap...@gmail.com> > To: vortex-l <vortex-l@eskimo.com> > Sent: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 2:13 pm > Subject: Re: [Vo]:global warming? > > Ice is melting and feeding the deep ocean currents that rise every few > decades to cool off the coasts. > > Sea level rise is the simple indicator that marks the point of disaster. > Coastal cities will flood as the ice melts. When all the ice is gone, that > is when the climate is in big trouble. The temperature of the oceans > controls the temperature of the atmosphere. The melting of the ice is the > factor that introduces the oscillations in the climate. > > If you put a glass of ice in an oven, the water in the glass will stay > at freezing until the ice melts. When all the ice is gone, the water will > begin to heat on its way to boiling. > > > On Tue, Aug 26, 2014 at 1:47 PM, David Roberson <dlrober...@aol.com> > wrote: > >> Please note that I pointed out that* I *have not seen one graph >> predicting the long term pause. Of course I have not reviewed every >> single model output since that would be a useless exercise. >> >> Which predictions should we depend upon? Those of the IPCC likely carry >> the most weight and they show no pause. I assume that the next versions of >> their models will be modified to reflect the new data, but you must admit >> that this is hindsight and not prediction as such. When will the next >> major error be uncovered? Are you 100% confident that we will not be >> entering into a cooling period during the next 20 years? >> >> I can not blindly and quietly sit by and accept the clearly poor >> performance of a group of assumed experts that are causing immense damage >> to our standard of living. They are merely high priests of a new religion >> that is dangerous and destructive. Everyone has the ability to evaluate >> their model's output and should realize that it is inaccurate. Why should >> we not use the good senses that God gave us? >> >> Lets put an end to this discussion since it is obvious that we will not >> come to a resolution that is acceptable to both of us. Everyone is >> entitled to their beliefs and that is good for science in the long run. >> >> >> Dave >> >> >> -----Original Message----- >> From: Eric Walker <eric.wal...@gmail.com> >> To: vortex-l <vortex-l@eskimo.com> >> Sent: Tue, Aug 26, 2014 12:03 pm >> Subject: Re: [Vo]:global warming? >> >> On Mon, Aug 25, 2014 at 11:36 PM, David Roberson <dlrober...@aol.com> >> wrote: >> >> Eric, I have seen graphs of the predicted global temperatures from >>> several different models and they all show a rapid increase during the >>> questionable period. Not one of them indicate that a pause was >>> conceivable. >> >> >> The second statement -- "Not one of them indicate that a pause was >> conceivable" -- this is a hard proposition to evaluate. There are no doubt >> many hundreds or thousands of climate models that have been proposed over >> the years. To evaluate whether none of them predicted the absence of a >> rapid increase, ultimately you will need to have intimate knowledge of >> statements made in the following publications (and probably others) over a >> period of decades: >> >> http://www.eecg.utoronto.ca/~prall/climate/journals.html >> >> You will need to be conversant with units that are very different than >> ones in other fields and will have to have a solid working knowledge of the >> relevant physics, chemistry and biology. If you have not personally made >> the effort to keep on top of the specific models proposed in these journals >> and the highly technical statements that have been made and debated ad >> infinitum, you will need to place trust in someone else to do this homework >> for you. You will be a babe in the woods and will need to call upon >> someone to get you out of the bind of knowing little about climate science, >> like all of the rest of us non-specialists. >> >> To get yourself out of this bind, you can choose the BBC, or the >> evening news, or infographics published on a Web site. Some will choose to >> put their trust in inveterate climate skeptics whose funding is murky and >> agenda unclear (this is a little like going to Huizenga or Taubes for >> information about LENR). Back of the envelope arguments about the inherent >> difficulty of predicting things with such a chaotic system are helpful for >> getting a zeroth order approximation, but they take us little further than >> that. >> >> You appear to want to defer to the experts a bit too much Eric. >> >> >> It is no doubt true that I have been guilty of putting too much trust >> in experts at times. I am grateful, though, to be far more skeptical than >> you or others here in this particular instance. I do not trust the BBC or >> the New York Times or Fox News to provide more than vague sense of where >> things are. Ultimately I will only put trust in people who have invested >> the time and effort to really understand everything that is being said and >> demonstrated a clear knowledge of the minutiae, whether they are climate >> scientists or investigative journalists. I am grateful that my position >> could not be easier to defend in this instance. >> >> Eric >> >> >
